{
  "metadata": {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "route": "/episodes/2026-10-28/earlymarket.html",
    "labelZh": "早盘分析",
    "labelEn": "Early-market analysis",
    "titleZh": "QQQ偏涨：芯片带动反弹，Fed后检验上涨能否保住",
    "titleEn": "QQQ upside bias: chip-led rebound, then a test of resilience after the Fed",
    "summaryZh": "原M1于09:13登记，完整源稿09:22:55完成：QQQ以721.25为方向参照，收盘目标≥725.26，上午与午后路径及失效条件分别固定；S1单独评分。覆盖贸易数据、AI需求与融资、重要财报，分开源稿与网站公开窗口。",
    "summaryEn": "Original M1 registered09:13; complete source finished09:22:55: QQQ direction reference721.25, closing target≥725.26, with separate fixed morning / afternoon paths and invalidation. S1 is scored separately. Covers trade data, AI demand and financing, and major earnings; source and website release windows remain distinct.",
    "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-10-28T09:22:55.347020-04:00",
    "sourceTimeLabel": "2026-10-28 09:22:55",
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-28T13:35:52.126Z"
  },
  "coverage": [
    "QQQ",
    "SPY",
    "SMH",
    "SOXX",
    "RSP",
    "IWM",
    "NVDA",
    "MSFT",
    "GOOGL",
    "AMZN",
    "AVGO",
    "HOOD",
    "META",
    "TSLA",
    "MU",
    "STX",
    "TER",
    "NXPI",
    "FFIV",
    "VRT",
    "GEV",
    "V"
  ],
  "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-10-28T09:22:55.347020-04:00",
  "sourceComplete": true,
  "sourceReportCopiedToPublic": false,
  "rawEvidencePublic": false,
  "firstPublishedAt": "2026-10-28T13:40:30.105562+00:00",
  "publicObservationStart": "2026-10-28T13:45:00.000Z",
  "evaluationEndET": "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00",
  "predictions": [
    {
      "sourceRegisteredAt": "2026-10-28T09:13:39-04:00",
      "sourcePublicationBoundsET": [
        "2026-10-28T09:13:40-04:00",
        "2026-10-28T09:13:57-04:00"
      ],
      "originalWindowStartET": "2026-10-28T09:30:00-04:00",
      "evaluationEndET": "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00",
      "sourcePriceDate": "2026-10-27",
      "sourceURLs": [
        "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/etf/qqq/historical"
      ],
      "comparisonPrecisionDecimals": 4,
      "id": "M1",
      "kind": "primary",
      "direction": "up",
      "directionReference": 721.25,
      "closeOperator": ">=",
      "closeTargets": {
        "QQQ": 725.26
      },
      "pathRequired": [
        {
          "id": "P1",
          "window_bar_close_et": [
            "09:35",
            "13:55"
          ],
          "test": "3 consecutive completed five-minute bar closes strictly above 722.87; confirmation completed by 13:55"
        },
        {
          "id": "P2",
          "window_bar_close_et": [
            "14:35",
            "15:55"
          ],
          "test": "at least one completed five-minute bar close at or above 725.26"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": {
        "window_bar_close_et": [
          "09:35",
          "16:00"
        ],
        "test": "6 consecutive completed five-minute QQQ closes strictly below 721.25; count resets on equal/above or missing bar; first confirmation completion time is invalidation time; later recovery cannot restore success"
      },
      "scoring": {
        "correct": "direction true, P1 true, P2 true, close target true, no invalidation",
        "partial": "direction true and no invalidation, but one or more path/close target requirements fail",
        "wrong": "direction false or invalidation confirmed",
        "insufficient": "essential valid data missing; confirmed wrong/invalidation remains wrong"
      },
      "success": "direction true, P1 true, P2 true, close target true, no invalidation",
      "failure": "direction false or invalidation confirmed",
      "dataInsufficient": "essential valid data missing; confirmed wrong/invalidation remains wrong"
    },
    {
      "sourceRegisteredAt": "2026-10-28T09:13:39-04:00",
      "sourcePublicationBoundsET": [
        "2026-10-28T09:13:40-04:00",
        "2026-10-28T09:13:57-04:00"
      ],
      "originalWindowStartET": "2026-10-28T09:30:00-04:00",
      "evaluationEndET": "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00",
      "sourcePriceDate": "2026-10-27",
      "sourceURLs": [
        "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/etf/qqq/historical"
      ],
      "comparisonPrecisionDecimals": 4,
      "id": "S1",
      "kind": "backup",
      "triggerDeadlineET": "2026-10-28T15:00:00-04:00",
      "triggerOperator": "<",
      "triggerPrices": {
        "QQQ": 721.25
      },
      "triggerBarCount": 6,
      "triggerBarMinutes": 5,
      "closeOperator": "<",
      "closeTargets": {
        "QQQ": 721.25
      },
      "pathRequired": [
        {
          "afterTrigger": true,
          "latestBarCloseET": "15:55",
          "test": "at least one later complete five-minute close <=718.00"
        }
      ],
      "primaryRelation": "Same confirmation invalidates M1; S1 success cannot rescue M1",
      "success": "after confirmation and by 15:55, at least one later completed five-minute close <=718.00, and official regular close <721.25",
      "failure": "Triggered, but either subsequent checkpoint or official closing requirement fails",
      "notTriggered": "Complete valid data but no qualifying confirmation by15:00; neither success nor failure",
      "dataInsufficient": "Necessary valid data missing; no interpolation"
    }
  ],
  "originalHypotheses": {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "timezone": "America/New_York",
    "status": "frozen",
    "evaluation_window_et": [
      "2026-10-28T09:30:00-04:00",
      "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00"
    ],
    "data_cutoff_et": "2026-10-28T09:07:27-04:00",
    "registration_time": "recorded in companion publication metadata; no forecast mutations permitted",
    "M1": {
      "instrument": "QQQ",
      "direction": "up",
      "reference": 721.25,
      "direction_test": "official regular close > 721.25; equality fails",
      "close_target": ">=725.26",
      "narrative": "芯片带动早盘反弹，决议前维持在昨日高点上方整理；Fed决议与发布会后震荡，最终保住上涨，收盘达到或超过725.26。",
      "path_required": [
        {
          "id": "P1",
          "window_bar_close_et": [
            "09:35",
            "13:55"
          ],
          "test": "3 consecutive completed five-minute bar closes strictly above 722.87; confirmation completed by 13:55"
        },
        {
          "id": "P2",
          "window_bar_close_et": [
            "14:35",
            "15:55"
          ],
          "test": "at least one completed five-minute bar close at or above 725.26"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": {
        "window_bar_close_et": [
          "09:35",
          "16:00"
        ],
        "test": "6 consecutive completed five-minute QQQ closes strictly below 721.25; count resets on equal/above or missing bar; first confirmation completion time is invalidation time; later recovery cannot restore success"
      },
      "sources": {
        "reference": "Nasdaq historical 2026-10-27 close",
        "722.87": "Nasdaq historical 2026-10-27 high refreshed 2026-10-28",
        "725.26": "50-session SMA through 2026-10-27 = 725.2624, rounded to cents"
      },
      "score": {
        "correct": "direction true, P1 true, P2 true, close target true, no invalidation",
        "partial": "direction true and no invalidation, but one or more path/close target requirements fail",
        "wrong": "direction false or invalidation confirmed",
        "insufficient": "essential valid data missing; confirmed wrong/invalidation remains wrong"
      }
    },
    "S1": {
      "instrument": "QQQ",
      "trigger": "6 consecutive completed five-minute closes strictly below 721.25, first confirmation completed between 10:00 and 15:00 inclusive; same reset rules",
      "forecast_after_trigger": "after confirmation and by 15:55, at least one later completed five-minute close <=718.00, and official regular close <721.25",
      "718.00_source": "analyst-selected downside checkpoint within prior session range; not an observed support or model target",
      "score": "both post-trigger objectives required; trigger alone is not success; untriggered excluded from success/failure; never combined with M1"
    },
    "bar_convention": "America/New_York exchange-aligned nonoverlapping five-minute bars, timestamped by interval end, regular session only. Earliest close09:35, final close16:00. Missing bars not interpolated. Each bar checks its close only, not continuous tick occupancy.",
    "session_scope": "same-day regular session only; no next-day prediction; no Live-account data"
  },
  "forecastFramework": "One primary M1, ordered morning and afternoon paths, fixed invalidation; backup S1 scored independently.",
  "primaryId": "M1",
  "backupIds": [
    "S1"
  ],
  "sourceRegisteredAt": "2026-10-28T09:13:39-04:00",
  "sourceFirstPublishedAt": null,
  "sourcePublicationBoundsET": [
    "2026-10-28T09:13:40-04:00",
    "2026-10-28T09:13:57-04:00"
  ],
  "sourceTaskCompletedAt": "2026-10-28T13:23:35.000Z",
  "websiteWindowPolicy": "Later republication of the frozen premarket source. Website evaluation uses only complete bars beginning after first successful website publication; original reference and thresholds unchanged. Source and website windows are not independent samples.",
  "newIndependentForecastClaimedAtWebsiteRelease": false,
  "eventStatusAsOfSource": "2026-10-28T09:22:55.347020-04:00",
  "snapshotCutoff": {
    "market": "2026-10-28 09:06–09:07 ET",
    "postRegistration": "2026-10-28 09:19–09:21 ET",
    "macroAndNews": "2026-10-28T09:22:55.347020-04:00"
  },
  "earningsCoverageAsOfSource": [
    "SK hynix",
    "VRT",
    "GEV",
    "HOOD",
    "STX",
    "V",
    "NXPI",
    "FFIV",
    "TER",
    "MSFT",
    "GOOGL"
  ],
  "probability": null,
  "winRate": null,
  "firstPublicationReceipt": {
    "versionNumber": 205,
    "status": "succeeded"
  }
}