{
  "metadata": {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "route": "/episodes/2026-10-28/postmarket.html",
    "labelZh": "盘后分析",
    "labelEn": "Post-market analysis",
    "titleZh": "M1部分正确：收涨达标，午后路径逾期",
    "titleEn": "M1 partially correct: closing target met, afternoon path late",
    "summaryZh": "QQQ正式收725.61，原方向与收盘目标达到，午后路径在15:55前未达；M1部分正确、S1未触发。源P1于09:45确认，网站窗口P1于13:05确认。单列Fed与重要财报，不增加次日预测。",
    "summaryEn": "QQQ officially closed725.61, meeting original direction and closing target, but the afternoon path missed15:55. M1 partially correct; S1 untriggered. Source P1 confirmed09:45, website P1 at13:05. Fed and major earnings are separate, without new next-day predictions.",
    "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-10-28T16:19:27-04:00",
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-28T20:48:17.710Z"
  },
  "coverage": [
    "SPY",
    "QQQ",
    "SMH",
    "SOXX",
    "RSP",
    "IWM",
    "NVDA",
    "MSFT",
    "GOOGL",
    "AMZN",
    "AVGO",
    "HOOD",
    "META",
    "TSLA",
    "MU",
    "STX",
    "TER",
    "NXPI",
    "FFIV",
    "V",
    "VRT",
    "GEV",
    "ORCL",
    "NOW",
    "KLAC",
    "TMUS",
    "CMG"
  ],
  "publicScope": "Market-only same-day retrospective and factual earnings",
  "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-10-28T16:19:27-04:00",
  "sourceTaskCompletedAt": "2026-10-28T20:21:02.000Z",
  "sourceComplete": true,
  "sourceDocumentCopied": false,
  "rawEvidencePublic": false,
  "firstPublishedAt": "2026-10-28T20:50:49.147388+00:00",
  "sourceRegisteredAt": "2026-10-28T09:13:39-04:00",
  "sourcePublicationBoundsET": [
    "2026-10-28T09:13:40-04:00",
    "2026-10-28T09:13:57-04:00"
  ],
  "morningRegisteredAt": "2026-10-28T13:35:52.126Z",
  "morningFirstPublishedAt": "2026-10-28T13:40:30.105562+00:00",
  "morningFirstPublicationReceipt": {
    "versionNumber": 205,
    "status": "succeeded"
  },
  "websiteObservationStart": "2026-10-28T13:45:00.000Z",
  "evaluationEndET": "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00",
  "originalHypotheses": [
    {
      "sourceRegisteredAt": "2026-10-28T09:13:39-04:00",
      "sourcePublicationBoundsET": [
        "2026-10-28T09:13:40-04:00",
        "2026-10-28T09:13:57-04:00"
      ],
      "originalWindowStartET": "2026-10-28T09:30:00-04:00",
      "evaluationEndET": "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00",
      "sourcePriceDate": "2026-10-27",
      "sourceURLs": [
        "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/etf/qqq/historical"
      ],
      "comparisonPrecisionDecimals": 4,
      "id": "M1",
      "kind": "primary",
      "direction": "up",
      "directionReference": 721.25,
      "closeOperator": ">=",
      "closeTargets": {
        "QQQ": 725.26
      },
      "pathRequired": [
        {
          "id": "P1",
          "window_bar_close_et": [
            "09:35",
            "13:55"
          ],
          "test": "3 consecutive completed five-minute bar closes strictly above 722.87; confirmation completed by 13:55"
        },
        {
          "id": "P2",
          "window_bar_close_et": [
            "14:35",
            "15:55"
          ],
          "test": "at least one completed five-minute bar close at or above 725.26"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": {
        "window_bar_close_et": [
          "09:35",
          "16:00"
        ],
        "test": "6 consecutive completed five-minute QQQ closes strictly below 721.25; count resets on equal/above or missing bar; first confirmation completion time is invalidation time; later recovery cannot restore success"
      },
      "scoring": {
        "correct": "direction true, P1 true, P2 true, close target true, no invalidation",
        "partial": "direction true and no invalidation, but one or more path/close target requirements fail",
        "wrong": "direction false or invalidation confirmed",
        "insufficient": "essential valid data missing; confirmed wrong/invalidation remains wrong"
      },
      "success": "direction true, P1 true, P2 true, close target true, no invalidation",
      "failure": "direction false or invalidation confirmed",
      "dataInsufficient": "essential valid data missing; confirmed wrong/invalidation remains wrong"
    },
    {
      "sourceRegisteredAt": "2026-10-28T09:13:39-04:00",
      "sourcePublicationBoundsET": [
        "2026-10-28T09:13:40-04:00",
        "2026-10-28T09:13:57-04:00"
      ],
      "originalWindowStartET": "2026-10-28T09:30:00-04:00",
      "evaluationEndET": "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00",
      "sourcePriceDate": "2026-10-27",
      "sourceURLs": [
        "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/etf/qqq/historical"
      ],
      "comparisonPrecisionDecimals": 4,
      "id": "S1",
      "kind": "backup",
      "triggerDeadlineET": "2026-10-28T15:00:00-04:00",
      "triggerOperator": "<",
      "triggerPrices": {
        "QQQ": 721.25
      },
      "triggerBarCount": 6,
      "triggerBarMinutes": 5,
      "closeOperator": "<",
      "closeTargets": {
        "QQQ": 721.25
      },
      "pathRequired": [
        {
          "afterTrigger": true,
          "latestBarCloseET": "15:55",
          "test": "at least one later complete five-minute close <=718.00"
        }
      ],
      "primaryRelation": "Same confirmation invalidates M1; S1 success cannot rescue M1",
      "success": "after confirmation and by 15:55, at least one later completed five-minute close <=718.00, and official regular close <721.25",
      "failure": "Triggered, but either subsequent checkpoint or official closing requirement fails",
      "notTriggered": "Complete valid data but no qualifying confirmation by15:00; neither success nor failure",
      "dataInsufficient": "Necessary valid data missing; no interpolation"
    }
  ],
  "reviewResults": [
    {
      "id": "M1",
      "kind": "primary",
      "outcome": "partially_correct",
      "direction": "correct",
      "directionReference": 721.25,
      "directionOperator": ">",
      "path": "P1_met_P2_failed_deadline",
      "closingOperator": ">=",
      "closingTarget": 725.26,
      "closingTargetMet": true,
      "officialClose": 725.61,
      "invalidation": "not_triggered",
      "sourceWindow": {
        "start": "2026-10-28T09:30:00-04:00",
        "P1": {
          "firstConfirmationET": "2026-10-28T09:45:00-04:00",
          "maximumConsecutive": 3,
          "evidence": [
            {
              "start": "2026-10-28T09:30:00-04:00",
              "end": "2026-10-28T09:35:00-04:00",
              "close": 724.2169189453125
            },
            {
              "start": "2026-10-28T09:35:00-04:00",
              "end": "2026-10-28T09:40:00-04:00",
              "close": 723.4804077148438
            },
            {
              "start": "2026-10-28T09:40:00-04:00",
              "end": "2026-10-28T09:45:00-04:00",
              "close": 722.9349975585938
            }
          ],
          "eligibleCount": 53
        },
        "P2": {
          "firstConfirmationET": null,
          "maximumConsecutive": 0,
          "evidence": [],
          "eligibleCount": 17
        },
        "invalidation": {
          "firstConfirmationET": null,
          "maximumConsecutive": 2,
          "evidence": [],
          "eligibleCount": 78
        }
      },
      "websiteWindow": {
        "start": "2026-10-28T13:45:00.000Z",
        "P1": {
          "firstConfirmationET": "2026-10-28T13:05:00-04:00",
          "maximumConsecutive": 3,
          "evidence": [
            {
              "start": "2026-10-28T12:50:00-04:00",
              "end": "2026-10-28T12:55:00-04:00",
              "close": 723.8300170898438
            },
            {
              "start": "2026-10-28T12:55:00-04:00",
              "end": "2026-10-28T13:00:00-04:00",
              "close": 723.1699829101562
            },
            {
              "start": "2026-10-28T13:00:00-04:00",
              "end": "2026-10-28T13:05:00-04:00",
              "close": 723.2698974609375
            }
          ],
          "eligibleCount": 50
        },
        "P2": {
          "firstConfirmationET": null,
          "maximumConsecutive": 0,
          "evidence": [],
          "eligibleCount": 17
        },
        "invalidation": {
          "firstConfirmationET": null,
          "maximumConsecutive": 2,
          "evidence": [],
          "eligibleCount": 75
        }
      },
      "lateConfirmationExcluded": {
        "end": "2026-10-28T16:00:00-04:00",
        "close": 725.47998046875
      },
      "websiteRepublicationNotIndependentSample": true
    },
    {
      "id": "S1",
      "kind": "backup",
      "outcome": "not_triggered",
      "sourceTrigger": {
        "firstConfirmationET": null,
        "maximumConsecutive": 2,
        "evidence": [],
        "eligibleCount": 66
      },
      "websiteTrigger": {
        "firstConfirmationET": null,
        "maximumConsecutive": 2,
        "evidence": [],
        "eligibleCount": 63
      },
      "excludedFromPrimaryScore": true
    }
  ],
  "regularCloses": {
    "SPY": 772.39,
    "QQQ": 725.61,
    "SMH": 567.67,
    "SOXX": 521.94,
    "RSP": 217.47,
    "IWM": 281.36,
    "NVDA": 215.38,
    "MSFT": 531.01,
    "GOOGL": 324.89,
    "AMZN": 254.6,
    "AVGO": 351.81,
    "HOOD": 91.43,
    "META": 612.49,
    "TSLA": 404.22,
    "MU": 983.23,
    "STX": 697.97,
    "TER": 313.24,
    "NXPI": 251.69,
    "FFIV": 365.53,
    "V": 401.03,
    "VRT": 243.17,
    "GEV": 878.705,
    "ORCL": 144.34,
    "NOW": 149.855,
    "KLAC": 158.77,
    "TMUS": 148.08,
    "CMG": 28.75
  },
  "closingPriceBasis": "Nasdaq explicitly dated 2026-10-28 16:00 regular-session fields; after-hours separate",
  "earningsStatusAsOfSource": "2026-10-28T16:16:00-04:00",
  "predictions": [],
  "newForecastIds": [],
  "probabilities": null,
  "independentOutOfSampleWinRate": null,
  "dataLimitations": [
    "Volume conflict; no volume-confirmation claims.",
    "Final QQQ 5m725.479980 differs from official725.61.",
    "Explicit ET labels used; numerical chart timestamp offset rejected.",
    "Source P1 confirmation09:45 predates website observation; website P1 confirmed13:05.",
    "Website republication is not an additional independent forecast.",
    "Earnings/call states refer to source16:16 cutoff, not webpage publication time.",
    "Some consensus, calls and official daily Treasury values remain unknown."
  ],
  "translationPairs": 211,
  "firstPublicationReceipt": {
    "versionNumber": 208,
    "status": "succeeded"
  }
}