{
  "metadata": {
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "route": "/episodes/2026-10-29/postmarket.html",
    "labelZh": "盘后分析",
    "labelEn": "Post-market analysis",
    "titleZh": "源早盘M1部分正确：方向对，午后路径与目标未到",
    "titleEn": "Source morning M1 partially correct: direction right, afternoon path and target missed",
    "summaryZh": "QQQ正式收715.34，低于源参照716.29，但未达到713.59收盘目标和711.62午后路径；源M1部分正确、S1未触发。今天未在本站公开早盘页面，此处仅复盘源对话记录。单列Amazon、Intel等财报，不新增次日预测。",
    "summaryEn": "QQQ officially closed715.34, below source reference716.29 but missing closing target713.59 and afternoon path711.62. Source M1 partially correct; S1 untriggered. No morning page was published on this website today; this reviews the source-conversation record only. Amazon, Intel and other earnings are separate, without new next-day predictions.",
    "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-10-29T16:18:32-04:00",
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-29T20:44:57.807Z"
  },
  "coverage": [
    "SPY",
    "QQQ",
    "SMH",
    "SOXX",
    "RSP",
    "IWM",
    "NVDA",
    "MSFT",
    "GOOGL",
    "AMZN",
    "AVGO",
    "HOOD",
    "META",
    "TSLA",
    "NOW",
    "KLAC",
    "CAT",
    "LLY",
    "MA",
    "INTC",
    "COIN",
    "SBUX",
    "GILD"
  ],
  "publicScope": "Market-only retrospective of same-day source conversation and factual earnings",
  "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-10-29T16:18:32-04:00",
  "sourceTaskCompletedAt": "2026-10-29T20:20:58.000Z",
  "sourceValidatedAt": "2026-10-29T16:20:19-04:00",
  "sourceComplete": true,
  "sourceDocumentCopied": false,
  "rawEvidencePublic": false,
  "firstPublishedAt": "2026-10-29T20:47:58.838351+00:00",
  "sourceRegisteredAt": "2026-10-29T10:35:54-04:00",
  "sourceConversationDeliveryBoundsET": [
    "2026-10-29T10:35:54-04:00",
    "2026-10-29T10:36:08-04:00"
  ],
  "sourceDeliveryPrecision": "Immediately preceding/following tool clocks bound the commentary publication; not a message-server timestamp",
  "sourceMorningGeneratedAt": "2026-10-29T10:43:24-04:00",
  "websiteMorningPublished": false,
  "websiteMorningFirstPublishedAt": null,
  "websiteObservationStart": null,
  "websiteForecastScoreEligible": false,
  "sourceObservationStart": "2026-10-29T10:40:00-04:00",
  "evaluationEndET": "2026-10-29T16:00:00-04:00",
  "originalHypotheses": {
    "M1": {
      "instrument": "QQQ",
      "direction": "down from publication-near reference",
      "reference": 716.29,
      "direction_test": "official regular close strictly below reference; equality fails",
      "close_target": "official regular close <=713.59",
      "path_narrative": "Remaining morning rebound remains constrained below716.99; after13:00 revisit morning low711.62; close <=713.59 and below publication-near reference",
      "path_required": [
        {
          "id": "P1",
          "bar_end_window_et": [
            "10:45",
            "12:00"
          ],
          "condition": "3 consecutive complete5m closes strictly below716.99; confirmation completed by12:00; equality/missing/nonqualifying resets"
        },
        {
          "id": "P2",
          "bar_end_window_et": [
            "13:00",
            "15:55"
          ],
          "condition": "at least one completed5m close <=711.62; must occur after P1 confirmation"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": {
        "bar_end_window_et": [
          "10:45",
          "16:00"
        ],
        "condition": "3 consecutive completed5m closes strictly above716.99; first completion invalidates; equality or missing resets; later recovery does not restore success"
      },
      "score": {
        "correct": "direction and close_target and both path steps true, in order, and no invalidation",
        "partial": "direction true and no invalidation but close_target or path requirements fail",
        "wrong": "direction false or invalidation confirmed",
        "insufficient": "essential reliable data missing; confirmed invalidation remains wrong"
      },
      "sources": {
        "reference": "https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/QQQ/info?assetclass=etf",
        "716.99": "current-day regular-session high as of10:29; Yahoo metadata and first5m high",
        "711.62": "current-day regular-session low as of10:29; Yahoo metadata",
        "713.59": "Nasdaq historical 2026-10-27 low freshly retrieved today; chosen scoring checkpoint, not guaranteed support"
      }
    },
    "S1": {
      "instrument": "QQQ",
      "trigger": "6 consecutive completed5m closes strictly above716.99; same reset rules; first confirmation completed11:10-14:30ET inclusive",
      "after_trigger": "a strictly later completed5m close >=720.30 by15:55, and official regular close strictly above M1 reference",
      "source_720.30": "fresh Nasdaq 2026-10-28 low",
      "score": "both post-trigger objectives required; trigger itself not success; never combined with M1"
    }
  },
  "reviewResults": [
    {
      "id": "M1",
      "kind": "source_conversation_primary",
      "outcome": "partially_correct",
      "direction": "correct",
      "directionReference": 716.29,
      "directionOperator": "<",
      "path": "P1_met_P2_failed",
      "closingOperator": "<=",
      "closingTarget": 713.59,
      "closingTargetMet": false,
      "officialClose": 715.34,
      "invalidation": "not_triggered",
      "sourceWindow": {
        "start": "2026-10-29T10:40:00-04:00",
        "end": "2026-10-29T16:00:00-04:00",
        "P1": {
          "firstConfirmationAt": "2026-10-29T14:55:00.000Z",
          "maximumConsecutive": 10,
          "evidence": [
            {
              "start": "2026-10-29T14:40:00.000Z",
              "end": "2026-10-29T14:45:00.000Z",
              "close": 715.702
            },
            {
              "start": "2026-10-29T14:45:00.000Z",
              "end": "2026-10-29T14:50:00.000Z",
              "close": 713.16
            },
            {
              "start": "2026-10-29T14:50:00.000Z",
              "end": "2026-10-29T14:55:00.000Z",
              "close": 714.0101
            }
          ],
          "eligibleCount": 16
        },
        "P2": {
          "firstConfirmationAt": null,
          "maximumConsecutive": 0,
          "evidence": [],
          "eligibleCount": 36
        },
        "invalidation": {
          "firstConfirmationAt": null,
          "maximumConsecutive": 2,
          "evidence": [],
          "eligibleCount": 64
        },
        "afternoonMinimum": {
          "barEnd": "2026-10-29T18:40:00.000Z",
          "close": 712.2
        }
      },
      "websiteWindow": {
        "status": "no_prior_website_morning_publication",
        "start": null,
        "outcome": "not_evaluable_as_preclose_website_forecast"
      },
      "websiteRepublicationNotIndependentSample": true
    },
    {
      "id": "S1",
      "kind": "source_conversation_backup",
      "outcome": "not_triggered",
      "sourceTrigger": {
        "firstConfirmationAt": null,
        "maximumConsecutive": 2,
        "evidence": [],
        "eligibleCount": 46
      },
      "excludedFromPrimaryScore": true
    }
  ],
  "sourceEvidenceBars": [
    {
      "start": "2026-10-29T14:40:00.000Z",
      "end": "2026-10-29T14:45:00.000Z",
      "close": 715.702
    },
    {
      "start": "2026-10-29T14:45:00.000Z",
      "end": "2026-10-29T14:50:00.000Z",
      "close": 713.16
    },
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      "close": 714.0101
    },
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      "close": 714.49
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T15:05:00.000Z",
      "close": 715.61
    },
    {
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      "end": "2026-10-29T15:10:00.000Z",
      "close": 716.14
    },
    {
      "start": "2026-10-29T15:10:00.000Z",
      "end": "2026-10-29T15:15:00.000Z",
      "close": 716.57
    },
    {
      "start": "2026-10-29T15:15:00.000Z",
      "end": "2026-10-29T15:20:00.000Z",
      "close": 716.18
    },
    {
      "start": "2026-10-29T15:20:00.000Z",
      "end": "2026-10-29T15:25:00.000Z",
      "close": 716.65
    },
    {
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      "close": 716.62
    },
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      "close": 717.64
    },
    {
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      "close": 717.04
    },
    {
      "start": "2026-10-29T15:40:00.000Z",
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      "close": 716.99
    },
    {
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      "close": 716.0992
    },
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      "close": 716.49
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    },
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      "close": 716.52
    },
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      "close": 716.12
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    },
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    },
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      "close": 714.89
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T16:40:00.000Z",
      "close": 715.14
    },
    {
      "start": "2026-10-29T16:40:00.000Z",
      "end": "2026-10-29T16:45:00.000Z",
      "close": 715.375
    },
    {
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      "end": "2026-10-29T16:50:00.000Z",
      "close": 714.85
    },
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      "close": 715.3
    },
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    },
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      "close": 715.32
    },
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      "close": 714.725
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T17:15:00.000Z",
      "close": 713.7499
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T17:20:00.000Z",
      "close": 714.26
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T17:25:00.000Z",
      "close": 714.2305
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T17:30:00.000Z",
      "close": 714.55
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T17:35:00.000Z",
      "close": 714.38
    },
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      "close": 714.26
    },
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      "close": 714.08
    },
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      "close": 713.49
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      "close": 712.42
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      "close": 712.96
    },
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      "end": "2026-10-29T18:05:00.000Z",
      "close": 712.68
    },
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      "close": 713.24
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      "close": 713.4481
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      "close": 713.5
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      "close": 713.1307
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      "close": 712.425
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      "close": 712.5993
    },
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      "close": 713.12
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      "close": 713.6398
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      "close": 714.32
    },
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      "close": 713.46
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      "close": 713.21
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      "close": 713.89
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      "close": 714.71
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      "end": "2026-10-29T20:00:00.000Z",
      "close": 715.28
    }
  ],
  "regularCloses": {
    "SPY": 769.49,
    "QQQ": 715.34,
    "SMH": 561.67,
    "SOXX": 513.86,
    "RSP": 220.02,
    "IWM": 284.01,
    "NVDA": 213.66,
    "MSFT": 530.14,
    "GOOGL": 283.82,
    "AMZN": 243.79,
    "AVGO": 345,
    "HOOD": 91.59,
    "META": 624.52,
    "TSLA": 403.3,
    "NOW": 109.64,
    "KLAC": 167.43,
    "CAT": 647.24,
    "LLY": 1372.99,
    "MA": 635.815,
    "INTC": 92.07,
    "COIN": 160.59,
    "SBUX": 105.51,
    "GILD": 165.61
  },
  "closingPriceBasis": "Nasdaq explicitly dated2026-10-29 16:00 regular fields;16:09/16:14 retrievals agree where both available;GILD refresh only;after-hours separate",
  "earningsMaterialWindowET": "16:11–16:14 written releases;Intel prior guidance additionally checked16:19–16:20;live calls unverified",
  "predictions": [],
  "newForecastIds": [],
  "probabilities": null,
  "independentOutOfSampleWinRate": null,
  "dataLimitations": [
    "No morning article was published on this website today;source-conversation review is not a prepublished website forecast result.",
    "Source delivery bounded by neighboring tool clocks,not an exact message-server timestamp.",
    "Volume anomalies excluded;no final daily-volume conclusion.",
    "Final QQQ 5-minute715.28 differs from official715.34.",
    "Displayed4-decimal price precision restored;716.99 equality does not satisfy strict comparisons.",
    "64 Nasdaq explicit-ET crosschecks;maximum price difference0.0149,without score impact.",
    "Calls,exact release minutes except Intel16:01,some comparable consensus,and daily Treasury values remain unknown.",
    "Financial-guidance facts are not new stock-price forecasts."
  ],
  "translationPairs": 250,
  "firstPublicationReceipt": {
    "versionNumber": 211,
    "status": "succeeded"
  }
}