{
  "metadata": {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "route": "/episodes/2026-11-04/postmarket.html",
    "labelZh": "盘后分析",
    "labelEn": "Post-market analysis",
    "titleZh": "SPY主预测完整命中，芯片与大盘分化",
    "titleEn": "SPY main prediction fully met; chips diverged from the broad market",
    "summaryZh": "M1完整命中：SPY正式收766.82，方向、上午09:45和午后13:00路径均达标，754.35原永久失效未触发。无备用。含收盘行情、宏观修订与重要财报，事实截至源稿16:10:55 EST，不新增预测。",
    "summaryEn": "M1 fully met: SPY officially closed766.82; direction and the09:45 morning/13:00 afternoon steps passed, without original754.35 permanent invalidation. No backup. Closing markets, macro revisions and important earnings are as of source16:10:55 EST; no new forecast.",
    "registeredAt": "2026-11-05T14:10:28.539Z"
  },
  "coverage": [
    "SPY",
    "QQQ",
    "SMH",
    "SOXX",
    "RSP",
    "IWM",
    "NVDA",
    "MSFT",
    "GOOGL",
    "AMZN",
    "AVGO",
    "HOOD",
    "AMD",
    "ANET",
    "SMCI",
    "XYZ",
    "QCOM",
    "ARM",
    "APP",
    "COHR",
    "MCK",
    "SNAP",
    "DDOG",
    "UBER",
    "MCD",
    "CVS",
    "NVO"
  ],
  "sourceComplete": true,
  "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-11-04T16:10:55-05:00",
  "sourceTaskCompletedAt": "2026-11-04T21:11:53.000Z",
  "sourceTaskComplete": true,
  "sourceDocumentCopied": false,
  "rawEvidencePublic": false,
  "firstPublishedAt": "2026-11-05T14:15:58.044160+00:00",
  "originalHypotheses": {
    "M1": {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "direction": "Official close strictly >754.35",
      "P1": "09:35–12:00 three consecutive complete positive-volume5m closes strictly >757.07; third ends by12:00",
      "P2": "After P1,13:00–15:55 at least one complete positive-volume5m close >=763.37",
      "invalidation": "09:35–16:00 three consecutive complete positive-volume5m closes strictly <754.35; irreversible",
      "backup": [],
      "sourceDisclosure": "今天的 M1 登记为 SPY 偏涨。09:35–12:00须连续三根有成交的完整5分钟线收于757.07之上，随后13:00–15:55至少一根收于763.37或以上，16:00正式收盘须高于昨收754.35。全天连续三根收于754.35以下即永久失效。今天没有备用情景。"
    }
  },
  "originalPrediction": {
    "id": "M1",
    "kind": "primary",
    "direction": "up",
    "directionReference": 754.35,
    "sourceRegisteredAt": null,
    "sourcePublicationBoundsET": [
      "2026-11-04T08:34:54-05:00",
      "2026-11-04T08:35:07-05:00"
    ],
    "originalWindowStartET": "2026-11-04T09:30:00-05:00",
    "evaluationEndET": "2026-11-04T16:00:00-05:00",
    "sourcePriceDate": "2026-11-03",
    "sourceURLs": [
      "https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/SPY/historical?assetclass=etf&fromdate=2026-11-03&todate=2026-11-03",
      "https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/SPY/extended-trading?assetclass=etf&markettype=pre"
    ],
    "closeOperator": ">",
    "closeTargets": {
      "SPY": 754.35
    },
    "pathRequired": [
      {
        "id": "P1",
        "windowBarEndET": [
          "09:35",
          "12:00"
        ],
        "operator": ">",
        "price": 757.07,
        "consecutiveCompletedBars": 3,
        "minutes": 5,
        "confirmationDeadlineET": "2026-11-04T12:00:00-05:00"
      },
      {
        "id": "P2",
        "after": "P1",
        "windowBarEndET": [
          "13:00",
          "15:55"
        ],
        "operator": ">=",
        "price": 763.37,
        "consecutiveCompletedBars": 1,
        "minutes": 5,
        "confirmationDeadlineET": "2026-11-04T15:55:00-05:00"
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    ],
    "invalidation": {
      "windowBarEndET": [
        "09:35",
        "16:00"
      ],
      "operator": "<",
      "price": 754.35,
      "consecutiveCompletedBars": 3,
      "minutes": 5,
      "irreversible": true
    },
    "success": "Official SPY close >754.35 AND P1 then P2 reached AND no permanent invalidation",
    "failure": "Official close <=754.35 OR permanent invalidation; subsequent recovery cannot restore success",
    "dataInsufficient": "Necessary valid regular-session evidence absent; retain any independently proven error or invalidation",
    "scoring": {
      "complete": "Direction, ordered P1 and P2, without invalidation",
      "partial": "Direction correct, path incomplete and no invalidation",
      "wrong": "Direction wrong or original permanent invalidation triggered",
      "insufficient": "Essential evidence missing, while retaining proven failure"
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  },
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  "exactSourcePublicSecondUnknown": true,
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  "websiteMorningFirstPublishedAt": "2026-11-04T14:18:46.183224+00:00",
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