MULTIPLE RESEARCH / HORIZON-04
NVDA H04：共同路径推导P/ENVDA H04: deriving P/E from one shared pathNVDA H04：共同路徑推導P/E
H04-STRUCT-CORE-CAP／v0.1，未晋升研究候选。市场截面为2026-10-06收盘$239.24，研究可得性时点为纽约16:30；10年国债观察日10月5日，收益率5.31%。原始资料实际在当晚21:18之后捕获，不是当时已保存的PIT档案。H04-STRUCT-CORE-CAP / v0.1, an unpromoted research candidate. Market cutoff is the2026-10-06 close of$239.24, with a16:30 New York research-availability convention. The10Y observation is5.31% fromOctober5. Raw sources were captured after21:18 that evening, not archived contemporaneously at16:30.H04-STRUCT-CORE-CAP／v0.1，未晉升研究候選。市場截面為2026-10-06收盤$239.24，研究可得性時點為紐約16:30；10年國債觀察日10月5日，收益率5.31%。原始資料實際在當晚21:18之後捕獲，不是當時已保存的PIT檔案。
| 期限Horizon期限 | 目标日 → 盈利窗口末日Target → earnings-window end目標日 → 盈利窗口末日 | Core EPS | P/E | 最终条件估值 $／股Final conditional value $/share最終條件估值 $／股 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0M | 2026-10-06 → 2027-10-06 | 13.8827 | 14.6637× | $203.57 |
| 6M | 2027-04-06 → 2028-04-06 | 16.6606 | 12.8894× | $214.74 |
| 12M | 2027-10-06 → 2028-10-06 | 18.9528 | 11.3698× | $215.49 |
共同盈利与折现框架使倍数路径可解释，但完整历史价格检验明显变差，未通过开发门槛。主表保留预先指定的H04结果，未改参数、未换成成绩更好的基准，也未晋升为正式模型。A shared earnings and discounting framework makes the multiple path interpretable, but full historical price diagnostics worsen materially and fail development gates. The headline retains the prespecified H04 result, without parameter retuning, substitution of a better-scoring baseline or promotion.共同盈利與折現框架使倍數路徑可解釋，但完整歷史價格檢驗明顯變差，未通過開發門檻。主表保留預先指定的H04結果，未改參數、未換成成績更好的基準，也未晉升為正式模型。
如何给三个期限的P/EHow the three P/E multiples are derived如何給三個期限的P/E
冻结H03的首10季经营路径，包括74%指引毛利率、费用率、股数和15%正常化税率。只沿原有季节性日均收入与四季度半衰期规则延长到共同终点；三个期限EPS算法未变。Freeze the first10 H03 operating quarters, including74% guided gross margin, expense policy, shares and15%normalized tax. Extend only the same seasonal daily-revenue/four-quarter damping rule to the common terminal. The three horizon EPS methods are unchanged.凍結H03的首10季經營路徑，包括74%指引毛利率、費用率、股數和15%正常化税率。只沿原有季節性日均收入與四季度半衰期規則延長到共同終點；三個期限EPS算法未變。
| 参数Parameter參數 | 固定假设Fixed assumption固定假設 |
|---|---|
| T | 起点后60个月，当前共同终点2031-10-06；不同期限不重新开始五年增长期。Origin+60months; current common terminal2031-10-06. Different horizons do not restart a five-year growth phase.起點後60個月，當前共同終點2031-10-06；不同期限不重新開始五年增長期。 |
| Cash proxy | 每个年度Core EPS的80%，于年度窗口末日假设支付；不是公司承诺的股息或回购。80%of annual Core EPS, hypothetically paid at each annual window end; not promised dividends or buybacks.每個年度Core EPS的80%，於年度窗口末日假設支付；不是公司承諾的股息或回購。 |
| ke | 起点10Y收益率+固定6%公司风险补偿，当前11.31%；没有分别预测6M/12M加息。Origin10Y yield+fixed6%company-risk allowance, currently11.31%; no separate6M/12M rate-hike forecasts.起點10Y收益率+固定6%公司風險補償，當前11.31%；沒有分別預測6M/12M加息。 |
| TV | 终值=80%×第5年EPS×1.03/(ke−3%)。3%为长期名义增长假设。Terminal value=80%×year5EPS×1.03/(ke−3%).3%is assumed long-run nominal growth.終值=80%×第5年EPS×1.03/(ke−3%)。3%為長期名義增長假設。 |
| P/E | 把同一条未来现金代理及终值折现到每个目标日得到V，再计算V/对应目标未来12M Core EPS。Discount the same future cash proxies and terminal value to each target to obtainV, then divide by that target’s forward12M Core EPS.把同一條未來現金代理及終值折現到每個目標日得到V，再計算V/對應目標未來12M Core EPS。 |
本轮五个年度Core EPS为13.88／18.95／22.12／23.93／24.89。第5年增长约4.0%，随后转为3%尾部假设；0M终值贡献70.9%。这些参数未经独立校准，不能把结果当成精确FCFE或已验证公允价值。The five annual Core EPS figures are13.88 / 18.95 / 22.12 / 23.93 / 24.89. Year5 growth is about4.0%, followed by the3%tail assumption; terminal value contributes70.9%at0M. These parameters lack independent calibration; this is not exact FCFE or validated fair value.本輪五個年度Core EPS為13.88／18.95／22.12／23.93／24.89。第5年增長約4.0%，隨後轉為3%尾部假設；0M終值貢獻70.9%。這些參數未經獨立校準，不能把結果當成精確FCFE或已驗證公允價值。
盈利倍数的理论基础Theory behind earnings multiples盈利倍數的理論基礎 · 高增长持续期Duration of high growth高增長持續期
提前定价、成长阶段与现金口径Anticipation, growth stage and cash basis提前定價、成長階段與現金口徑
当前市场隐含Core P/E=239.24/13.8827=17.2330倍。市场P/E不变是预先声明的价格基准，0M必等于现价，不能用于证明内在价值准确。H04本身不锚现价。Current market-implied Core P/E=239.24/13.8827=17.2330×. Holding this P/E is a prespecified price baseline; its0M value necessarily equals the market price and cannot validate intrinsic value. H04 itself is independent of the origin price.當前市場隱含Core P/E=239.24/13.8827=17.2330倍。市場P/E不變是預先聲明的價格基準，0M必等於現價，不能用於證明內在價值準確。H04本身不錨現價。
H04没有从现价再扣一次利率折价，也不因市值第一机械降低P/E。有限增长路径与共同终点把成长持续期显式写入；它仍不是已验证的阶段识别模型。即使没有新增利率冲击，盈利分母增长快于价值滚动，P/E也可能下降。H04 does not subtract a second rate discount from the current price or mechanically lower P/E because market capitalization ranks first. A finite growth path and common terminal make growth duration explicit, but do not constitute a validated stage classifier. P/E can decline without new rate shocks when its EPS denominator grows faster than value rolls forward.H04沒有從現價再扣一次利率折價，也不因市值第一機械降低P/E。有限增長路徑與共同終點把成長持續期顯式寫入；它仍不是已驗證的階段識別模型。即使沒有新增利率衝擊，盈利分母增長快於價值滾動，P/E也可能下降。
12M主表$215.49是在第一笔假想现金$11.11支付之后的价值；加回该代理现金为$226.60。它们都不是对NVIDIA实际分红、回购或总回报的预测。该口径尚未桥接公司现金留存、净现金、非经营资产及融资，所以与真实股价比较只能作结构定价诊断。The headline12M$215.49 is after the hypothetical first$11.11 cash payment; adding it back gives$226.60. Neither predicts actual NVIDIA dividends, buybacks or total returns. Retained cash, net cash, nonoperating assets and financing remain unbridged, limiting actual-price comparisons to structural pricing diagnostics.12M主表$215.49是在第一筆假想現金$11.11支付之後的價值；加回該代理現金為$226.60。它們都不是對NVIDIA實際分紅、回購或總回報的預測。該口徑尚未橋接公司現金留存、淨現金、非經營資產及融資，所以與真實股價比較只能作結構定價診斷。
价格检验与同截面对照Price evaluation and same-cutoff controls價格檢驗與同截面對照
| 期限Horizon期限 | H04 | 同日H03-BSame-date H03-B同日H03-B | 成熟历史AMature historical A成熟歷史A | 市场P/E不变Market P/E held市場P/E不變 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0M | $203.57 | $300.39 | $360.36 | $239.24 |
| 6M | $214.74 | $304.19 | $441.30 | $287.11 |
| 12M | $215.49 | $346.07 | $514.32 | $326.61 |
| 期限Horizon期限 | 分支Branch分支 | N | MALE | 中位APEMedian APE中位APE | P90 APE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0M | H04 | 24 | 1.026 | 65.1% | 89.6% |
| 0M | H03B | 24 | 0.559 | 46.6% | 77.9% |
| 0M | H03A | 24 | 0.517 | 45.8% | 134.9% |
| 0M | MarketPEHeld | 24 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 0M | PriceUnchanged | 24 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6M | H04 | 20 | 1.207 | 69.8% | 94.4% |
| 6M | H03B | 20 | 0.700 | 53.5% | 82.8% |
| 6M | H03A | 20 | 0.765 | 72.2% | 130.5% |
| 6M | MarketPEHeld | 20 | 0.369 | 26.8% | 61.3% |
| 6M | PriceUnchanged | 20 | 0.364 | 28.2% | 57.0% |
| 12M | H04 | 16 | 1.527 | 65.0% | 96.0% |
| 12M | H03B | 16 | 0.944 | 51.8% | 91.7% |
| 12M | H03A | 16 | 0.911 | 71.2% | 130.7% |
| 12M | MarketPEHeld | 16 | 0.503 | 31.8% | 74.7% |
| 12M | PriceUnchanged | 16 | 0.642 | 45.2% | 70.7% |
历史研究起点40个，价格共同样本0M/6M/12M为24/20/16。MALE=mean(|ln(预测/实际)|)，越低越好，不是准确率。H04所有期限均明显差于H03-B和两个简单基准；它没有提高EPS准确率，因为EPS方法未改变。There are40 historical origins and matched price samples24/20/16. MALE=mean(|ln(prediction/actual)|), with lower better, not an accuracy rate. H04 materially lags H03-B and both simple baselines at every horizon. It does not improve EPS accuracy because the earnings method is unchanged.歷史研究起點40個，價格共同樣本0M/6M/12M為24/20/16。MALE=mean(|ln(預測/實際)|)，越低越好，不是準確率。H04所有期限均明顯差於H03-B和兩個簡單基準；它沒有提高EPS準確率，因為EPS方法未改變。
市场P/E不变的12M基准比价格不变降低MALE约21.6%，但这属于基准诊断，不能归给H04结构候选；仍是已经观察的开发历史；配对95%误差差区间[-0.494,+0.079]包含零，稳健证据不足。0M与市场价一致是恒等式。正式价格Champion仍未建立。The12M held-market-P/E baseline reduces MALE by about21.6%versus unchanged price, but this belongs to the baseline diagnostic, not the H04 structural candidate, and still uses previously observed development history. Its paired95%loss-difference interval[-0.494,+0.079]includes zero, so robust evidence is lacking. Matching the0M market price is an identity. No formal price champion exists.市場P/E不變的12M基準比價格不變降低MALE約21.6%，但這屬於基準診斷，不能歸給H04結構候選；仍是已經觀察的開發歷史；配對95%誤差差區間[-0.494,+0.079]包含零，穩健證據不足。0M與市場價一致是恆等式。正式價格Champion仍未建立。
参数敏感性不是预测区间Assumption sensitivity is not a forecast interval參數敏感性不是預測區間
| 参数Parameter參數 | 假设值Assumed value假設值 | 0M | 6M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| risk | 4% | $270.80 | $283.09 | $284.90 |
| risk | 8% | $162.51 | $172.96 | $173.04 |
| cash | 70% | $178.13 | $187.90 | $188.55 |
| cash | 90% | $229.02 | $241.59 | $242.43 |
| growth | 2% | $186.81 | $197.06 | $196.83 |
| growth | 4% | $224.92 | $237.26 | $239.25 |
| terminalMonths | 48M | $202.05 | $213.14 | $213.79 |
| terminalMonths | 72M | $202.50 | $213.61 | $214.29 |
风险补偿从4%改为8%，0M估值从$270.80降到$162.51。这个跨度说明假设重要，不能当作统计置信区间。所有敏感性只在当前截面计算，未评分、未据此选择参数。Changing risk allowance from4%to8%moves0M value from$270.80 to$162.51. This range shows assumption importance, not a statistical confidence interval. All sensitivities are live-cutoff-only, unscored and unused for parameter selection.風險補償從4%改為8%，0M估值從$270.80降到$162.51。這個跨度説明假設重要，不能當作統計置信區間。所有敏感性只在當前截面計算，未評分、未據此選擇參數。
验证、限制与下一研究Verification, limitations and next research驗證、限制與下一研究
实现复核通过：首10季及三期限EPS冻结、共同终点与现金流、未来数据扰动、成熟训练日期、市场锚恒等与H04价格独立性、现金滚动恒等和旧档案保留。实现正确不代表预测有效。Implementation checks pass: frozen first10quarters and horizon EPS, shared terminal and cash stream, future-data perturbations, mature training dates, market-anchor identity and H04 price independence, cash carry identity and preservation of prior archives. Correct implementation does not establish predictive validity.實現複核通過：首10季及三期限EPS凍結、共同終點與現金流、未來數據擾動、成熟訓練日期、市場錨恆等與H04價格獨立性、現金滾動恆等和舊檔案保留。實現正確不代表預測有效。
下一步优先桥接实际现金转换、净现金和分配政策，并验证增长持续期及风险补偿；保留市场倍数基准，冻结新增研究起点后等待标签成熟。此次停止继续调参。H02/H03原始记录不改写；公开仅保存原创方法、派生估值及聚合指标，Pro、账户与原始证据保留内部。Next, bridge actual cash conversion, net cash and distribution policy, and evaluate growth duration and risk allowance. Preserve the market-multiple baseline and freeze new origins until labels mature. Stop retuning this round. H02/H03 records remain unchanged; publish original methods, derived values and aggregates, keeping Pro, account and raw evidence internal.下一步優先橋接實際現金轉換、淨現金和分配政策，並驗證增長持續期及風險補償；保留市場倍數基準，凍結新增研究起點後等待標籤成熟。此次停止繼續調參。H02/H03原始記錄不改寫；公開僅保存原創方法、派生估值及聚合指標，Pro、賬户與原始證據保留內部。
Fed H15来源与发布时间Fed H15 source and release timingFed H15來源與發佈時間
Protocol SHA256 7e335f3ecbada1aea30665ee21132185640f627fc2816ce3c9ecc9f01696cc62
Record SHA256 3e0b98e69a967852be965b0cfe0a8c360b3d33d8e25be02184e70c87d349c239