主预测复盘与证据Main prediction review and evidence主預測復盤與證據
复盘生成及最近核验 2026-11-04T16:10:55-05:00。行情时点均为11月4日美东标准时间。仅按元数据选取今天唯一一份已完成的盘前稿，无较新的补充。原判断首次公开于08:34:54–08:35:07，原稿生成于08:37:55；两个口径都在开盘前，检验窗口同为09:30–16:00。NYSE今日正常交易，未提前收市。盘前原稿 · 交易所日历Review generated and last verified 2026-11-04T16:10:55-05:00. Quote times are11/4 Eastern Standard Time. Metadata selected today's only completed morning report, without a newer supplement. Source first disclosure was bounded08:34:54–08:35:07 and source generation was08:37:55; both preceded the open, sharing the09:30–16:00 source test window. NYSE traded normally, without an early close. Source · Source復盤生成及最近核驗 2026-11-04T16:10:55-05:00。行情時點均為11月4日美東標準時間。僅按元數據選取今天唯一一份已完成的盤前稿，無較新的補充。原判斷首次公開於08:34:54–08:35:07，原稿生成於08:37:55；兩個口徑都在開盤前，檢驗窗口同為09:30–16:00。NYSE今日正常交易，未提前收市。盤前原稿 · 交易所日曆
网站早盘登记于2026-11-04 09:15:11 EST，首次成功公开于09:18:46 EST；原记录保留精确UTC回执。网站只检验实际公开后开始的完整K线，今天从09:30开始，与源稿窗口一致。这是同一份M1，不是两个独立样本。The website morning page was registered2026-11-04 at09:15:11 EST and first successfully public at09:18:46 EST; the original record retains the precise UTC receipt. Only complete bars starting after public release count, starting09:30 today, matching the source window. This is one M1, not two independent samples.網站早盤登記於2026-11-04 09:15:11 EST，首次成功公開於09:18:46 EST；原記錄保留精確UTC回執。網站只檢驗實際公開後開始的完整K線，今天從09:30開始，與源稿窗口一致。這是同一份M1，不是兩個獨立樣本。
| 盘前原判断／固定条件Original morning judgment / fixed condition盤前原判斷／固定條件 | 日内实际证据Actual intraday evidence日內實際證據 | 判定与原因Result and reason判定與原因 |
|---|---|---|
| M1 主方向，16:00 正式收盘严格高于754.35M1 direction: official16:00 close strictly above754.35M1 主方向，16:00 正式收盤嚴格高於754.35 | Nasdaq明确标为今日16:00常规收盘的价格是766.82。最后一根5分钟线收766.71，方向评分用766.82。Nasdaq's explicitly dated regular16:00 close was766.82. The final 5-minute close was766.71; direction uses766.82.Nasdaq明確標為今日16:00常規收盤的價格是766.82。最後一根5分鐘線收766.71，方向評分用766.82。 | 方向正确Direction correct方向正確 |
| 09:35–12:00连续三根完整5分钟线收于昨高757.07之上09:35–12:00: three consecutive completed 5-minute closes strictly above the prior high757.0709:35–12:00連續三根完整5分鐘線收於昨高757.07之上 | 09:35为762.88，09:40为765.93，09:45为767.71。09:35 closed762.88, 09:40 closed765.93 and09:45 closed767.71.09:35為762.88，09:40為765.93，09:45為767.71。 | 上午步骤首次于09:45达到Morning step first met09:45上午步驟首次於09:45達到 |
| 上午完成后，13:00–15:55至少一根完整5分钟线收于763.37或以上After morning completion, at least one completed 5-minute close at or above763.37 in13:00–15:55上午完成後，13:00–15:55至少一根完整5分鐘線收於763.37或以上 | 按原稿的结束时间口径，13:00收768.78，13:05仍收768.85。Under the original end-time convention,13:00 closed768.78 and13:05 closed768.85.按原稿的結束時間口徑，13:00收768.78，13:05仍收768.85。 | 午后步骤首次于13:00达到。上午已越此价的交易不计这一步。Afternoon step first met13:00. Earlier morning crossings do not count toward this step.午後步驟首次於13:00達到。上午已越此價的交易不計這一步。 |
| 09:35–16:00连续三根5分钟线低于754.35，第三根即永久失效09:35–16:00: three consecutive 5-minute closes below754.35 permanently invalidate at the third09:35–16:00連續三根5分鐘線低於754.35，第三根即永久失效 | 全日78根时间连续、有成交，最低5分钟收盘762.88；全天最低成交762.64也高于门槛。All78 bars were contiguous and positive-volume; the lowest 5-minute close was762.88, and the regular low762.64 was also above the threshold.全日78根時間連續、有成交，最低5分鐘收盤762.88；全天最低成交762.64也高於門檻。 | 未失效Not invalidated未失效 |
备用情景：无。 全日只计这一个M1。原稿对方向与路径的判断均成立；对驱动的判断可进一步拆开，RSP的相对强势保留到了收盘，IWM则落后SPY约0.14个百分点。Nasdaq收盘字段 · 盘中成交线Backups: none. Only this one M1 counts for the day. Both original direction and path were met. The proposed drivers require separate assessment: RSP retained relative strength into the close, while IWM lagged SPY by about0.14 percentage points. Source · Source備用情景：無。 全日只計這一個M1。原稿對方向與路徑的判斷均成立；對驅動的判斷可進一步拆開，RSP的相對強勢保留到了收盤，IWM則落後SPY約0.14個百分點。Nasdaq收盤字段 · 盤中成交線
原条件逐项采用严格不等式：上午高于757.07，收盘高于754.35，永久失效低于754.35，等于均不满足；午后达到或超过763.37，允许等于。13:00结束线覆盖12:55–13:00，不能用上午先触及替代午后步骤。连续计数遇缺线、零量或无效线重置。The original strict tests remain: morning above757.07, official close above754.35 and permanent invalidation below754.35; equality fails each strict test. Afternoon at or above763.37 allows equality. The bar ending13:00 covers12:55–13:00; morning touches cannot replace the afternoon step. Missing, zero-volume or invalid bars reset consecutive counts.原條件逐項採用嚴格不等式：上午高於757.07，收盤高於754.35，永久失效低於754.35，等於均不滿足；午後達到或超過763.37，允許等於。13:00結束線覆蓋12:55–13:00，不能用上午先觸及替代午後步驟。連續計數遇缺線、零量或無效線重置。
收盘行情和个股条件Closing dashboard and stock conditions收盤行情和個股條件
正式收盘取Nasdaq带日期、时段的常规收盘字段。开为首根5分钟线开价，12:00为午间收线。高低和量为行情源在16:05左右的常规时段快照，成交量单位百万股，最终汇总可修订。涨跌相对11月3日完整日线，技术判断以盘前原稿冻结的精度计算。个股的三个连续收线条件均用09:35–16:00已完成、有成交的5分钟线。Official closes use Nasdaq's dated regular-session field. Open is the first 5-minute bar's open;12:00 is the midday bar close. Ranges and volumes are regular-session vendor snapshots around16:05; volume is in millions of shares and final totals may be revised. Returns compare with the complete11/3 daily series. Technical tests retain the morning source's frozen precision. All three-consecutive-close stock conditions use completed positive-volume 5-minute bars in09:35–16:00.正式收盤取Nasdaq帶日期、時段的常規收盤字段。開為首根5分鐘線開價，12:00為午間收線。高低和量為行情源在16:05左右的常規時段快照，成交量單位百萬股，最終彙總可修訂。漲跌相對11月3日完整日線，技術判斷以盤前原稿凍結的精度計算。個股的三個連續收線條件均用09:35–16:00已完成、有成交的5分鐘線。
| 标的Symbol標的 | 开／12:00／正式收盘Open /12:00/ official close開／12:00／正式收盤 | 常规低–高Regular low–high常規低–高 | 日涨跌Daily change日漲跌 | 量Volume量 | 早盘观察与实际结果Morning observation and actual outcome早盤觀察與實際結果 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYSPYSPY | 762.99／768.60／766.82762.99/768.60/766.82762.99／768.60／766.82 | 762.64–769.22762.64–769.22762.64–769.22 | +1.65%+1.65%+1.65% | 56.9556.9556.95 | 高开后守住涨幅，午后达标，尾盘从高位回落Held opening gains, met the afternoon step, then eased from the highs高開後守住漲幅，午後達標，尾盤從高位回落 |
| QQQQQQQQQ | 688.44／696.35／691.95688.44/696.35/691.95688.44／696.35／691.95 | 687.90–701.45687.90–701.45687.90–701.45 | +0.97%+0.97%+0.97% | 58.2258.2258.22 | 早盘走强后回吐，收盘仍落后SPYEarly gains partly faded; still trailed SPY at the close早盤走強後回吐，收盤仍落後SPY |
| SMHSMHSMH | 511.14／508.61／504.27511.14/508.61/504.27511.14／508.61／504.27 | 497.33–522.18497.33–522.18497.33–522.18 | -2.75%-2.75%-2.75% | 13.0513.0513.05 | 午前反弹消退，收盘落后SPYMorning rebound faded; trailed SPY at the close午前反彈消退，收盤落後SPY |
| SOXXSOXXSOXX | 458.43／453.69／450.41458.43/453.69/450.41458.43／453.69／450.41 | 441.68–469.22441.68–469.22441.68–469.22 | -3.14%-3.14%-3.14% | 16.3116.3116.31 | 盘前相对弱势持续，跌幅大于SMHPremarket relative weakness persisted; fell more than SMH盤前相對弱勢持續，跌幅大於SMH |
| RSPRSPRSP | 221.59／223.04／223.36221.59/223.04/223.36221.59／223.04／223.36 | 221.07–223.50221.07–223.50221.07–223.50 | +1.87%+1.87%+1.87% | 15.1015.1015.10 | 09:45确认越昨高220.50，全天未失守昨收，跑赢SPY约0.22个百分点09:45 confirmed above prior high220.50, with no prior-close failure; beat SPY by about0.22 percentage points09:45確認越昨高220.50，全天未失守昨收，跑贏SPY約0.22個百分點 |
| IWMIWMIWM | 284.17／284.07／284.02284.17/284.07/284.02284.17／284.07／284.02 | 281.31–286.17281.31–286.17281.31–286.17 | +1.51%+1.51%+1.51% | 33.0433.0433.04 | 09:45确认越昨高281.995，未失守昨收；收涨但落后SPY09:45 confirmed above prior high281.995, without prior-close failure; gained but trailed SPY09:45確認越昨高281.995，未失守昨收；收漲但落後SPY |
| NVDANVDANVDA | 203.58／204.09／200.13203.58/204.09/200.13203.58／204.09／200.13 | 199.69–206.79199.69–206.79199.69–206.79 | -3.17%-3.17%-3.17% | 142.36142.36142.36 | 昨低205.93未连续收回，亦无三根高于昨收206.69；弱势成立，收盘略弱于SOXXNo consecutive recovery of prior low205.93 or three closes above prior close206.69; weakness held and the close slightly lagged SOXX昨低205.93未連續收回，亦無三根高於昨收206.69；弱勢成立，收盤略弱於SOXX |
| MSFTMSFTMSFT | 543.86／557.52／555.80543.86/557.52/555.80543.86／557.52／555.80 | 542.34–559.15542.34–559.15542.34–559.15 | +6.68%+6.68%+6.68% | 46.9846.9846.98 | 09:45连续收过昨高523.44，未确认跌破昨收520.99；强于QQQ09:45 confirmed above prior high523.44, with no confirmed failure below prior close520.99; stronger than QQQ09:45連續收過昨高523.44，未確認跌破昨收520.99；強於QQQ |
| GOOGLGOOGLGOOGL | 283.51／292.20／288.93283.51/292.20/288.93283.51／292.20／288.93 | 283.51–296.49283.51–296.49283.51–296.49 | +3.18%+3.18%+3.18% | 49.6449.6449.64 | 09:45确认越过281.605，未触发280.03失效；收盘同时跑赢QQQ和SPY09:45 confirmed above281.605, without280.03 invalidation; beat QQQ and SPY at the close09:45確認越過281.605，未觸發280.03失效；收盤同時跑贏QQQ和SPY |
| AMZNAMZNAMZN | 264.78／268.16／266.03264.78/268.16/266.03264.78／268.16／266.03 | 263.85–271.49263.85–271.49263.85–271.49 | +6.12%+6.12%+6.12% | 89.1389.1389.13 | 09:45确认越过252.45，未触发250.69失效；强于SPY09:45 confirmed above252.45, without250.69 invalidation; stronger than SPY09:45確認越過252.45，未觸發250.69失效；強於SPY |
| AVGOAVGOAVGO | 327.15／328.61／325.48327.15/328.61/325.48327.15／328.61／325.48 | 321.74–334.12321.74–334.12321.74–334.12 | -2.00%-2.00%-2.00% | 22.9322.9322.93 | 11:00确认低于326.60，未确认站上332.13；转弱成立，但跌幅小于SOXX11:00 confirmed below326.60, without confirmed recovery above332.13; weakening held but the decline was smaller than SOXX11:00確認低於326.60，未確認站上332.13；轉弱成立，但跌幅小於SOXX |
| HOODHOODHOOD | 83.99／87.77／87.4183.99/87.77/87.4183.99／87.77／87.41 | 83.46–88.7983.46–88.7983.46–88.79 | +2.02%+2.02%+2.02% | 19.8319.8319.83 | 09:55连续收上85.68，弱势失效；未确认跌破83.95，收盘跑赢IWM09:55 consecutive closes above85.68 invalidated weakness; no confirmed break below83.95; beat IWM at the close09:55連續收上85.68，弱勢失效；未確認跌破83.95，收盤跑贏IWM |
| AMDAMDAMD | 485.43／490.41／488.78485.43/490.41/488.78485.43／490.41／488.78 | 476.50–514.61476.50–514.61476.50–514.61 | +1.01%+1.01%+1.01% | 49.5649.5649.56 | 相对抗跌成立，跑赢SOXX约4.15个百分点，午前曾大幅回吐Relative resilience held; beat SOXX by about4.15 percentage points despite a sharp morning retracement相對抗跌成立，跑贏SOXX約4.15個百分點，午前曾大幅回吐 |
| ANETANETANET | 179.00／180.25／178.49179.00/180.25/178.49179.00／180.25／178.49 | 177.00–188.51177.00–188.51177.00–188.51 | +5.05%+5.05%+5.05% | 16.7016.7016.70 | 09:45确认越过171.84，未触发169.91失效，网络设备强于芯片09:45 confirmed above171.84, without169.91 invalidation; networking outperformed chips09:45確認越過171.84，未觸發169.91失效，網絡設備強於芯片 |
| SMCISMCISMCI | 31.41／30.40／29.6031.41/30.40/29.6031.41／30.40／29.60 | 29.39–32.7429.39–32.7429.39–32.74 | -5.70%-5.70%-5.70% | 84.9084.9084.90 | 相对抗跌不成立，收跌且比SOXX多跌约2.56个百分点Relative resilience failed: fell about2.56 percentage points more than SOXX相對抗跌不成立，收跌且比SOXX多跌約2.56個百分點 |
| XYZXYZXYZ | 84.00／87.86／87.5884.00/87.86/87.5884.00／87.86／87.58 | 83.26–88.4383.26–88.4383.26–88.43 | +15.24%+15.24%+15.24% | 18.5818.5818.58 | 09:45确认越过77.35，未触发76.00失效，财报后强势延续09:45 confirmed above77.35, without76.00 invalidation; post-earnings strength persisted09:45確認越過77.35，未觸發76.00失效，財報後強勢延續 |
| QCOMQCOMQCOM | 166.63／168.67／173.19166.63/168.67/173.19166.63／168.67／173.19 | 162.76–174.00162.76–174.00162.76–174.00 | +5.33%+5.33%+5.33% | 19.4119.4119.41 | 相对抗跌成立，财报前跑赢SOXX约8.47个百分点Relative resilience held; beat SOXX by about8.47 percentage points before earnings相對抗跌成立，財報前跑贏SOXX約8.47個百分點 |
| ARMARMARM | 202.35／196.27／191.80202.35/196.27/191.80202.35／196.27／191.80 | 189.89–209.50189.89–209.50189.89–209.50 | -5.28%-5.28%-5.28% | 7.637.637.63 | 09:50先连续收上202.49，原弱势失效；10:45才确认跌破200，后跌不能撤销先前失效09:50 consecutive closes above202.49 first invalidated weakness; only10:45 confirmed below200. The later decline cannot reverse earlier invalidation.09:50先連續收上202.49，原弱勢失效；10:45才確認跌破200，後跌不能撤銷先前失效 |
RSP、IWM分别是等权和小盘代理，未取得完整交易所上涨／下跌家数。SPY约5,695万股，高于前一交易日约3,289万股。按收盘观察，微软、亚马逊、Alphabet上涨与NVDA、AVGO下跌同时发生，整条AI产业链的涨跌不能互相替代。对其余重点股，未核实能单独解释当天价格的新增公司合同或政策决定。行情、交易时段及原始数据索引RSP and IWM proxy equal-weight and small-cap breadth; complete exchange advancing/declining counts were not obtained. SPY traded about5,695 ten-thousand shares versus about3,289 ten-thousand the previous session. Microsoft's, Amazon's and Alphabet's gains coincided with NVDA's and AVGO's losses; returns across the AI chain are not interchangeable. For the other focus names, no newly verified company contract or policy decision independently explains the day's price move. SourceRSP、IWM分別是等權和小盤代理，未取得完整交易所上漲／下跌家數。SPY約5,695萬股，高於前一交易日約3,289萬股。按收盤觀察，微軟、亞馬遜、Alphabet上漲與NVDA、AVGO下跌同時發生，整條AI產業鏈的漲跌不能互相替代。對其餘重點股，未核實能單獨解釋當天價格的新增公司合同或政策決定。行情、交易時段及原始數據索引
宏观及盘前原因的核验Macro data and review of the morning rationale宏觀及盤前原因的核驗
| 早盘观察／发布时间Morning observation / release time早盤觀察／發佈時間 | 实际数据与价格反应Actual data and price response實際數據與價格反應 | 判断Assessment判斷 |
|---|---|---|
| 08:15 ADP、08:30贸易08:15 ADP,08:30 trade08:15 ADP、08:30貿易 | 10月私营就业增8.6万，TD 10月30日共识7.5万，9月从9.0万修订为8.6万。9月贸易逆差1,050亿美元，TD共识1,049亿，8月从约1,056亿修订为1,057亿。10 month private jobs increased8.6 ten-thousand; TD's10/30 consensus was7.5 ten-thousand. 9 month was revised from9.0 to8.6 ten-thousand. 9 month trade deficit was1,050 hundred million dollars versus TD consensus1,049; 8 month was revised from about1,056 to1,057 hundred million dollars.10月私營就業增8.6萬，TD 10月30日共識7.5萬，9月從9.0萬修訂為8.6萬。9月貿易逆差1,050億美元，TD共識1,049億，8月從約1,056億修訂為1,057億。 | 均在开盘前公开。就业强于共识但与修订后前值持平，贸易接近预期。Both preceded the open. Jobs exceeded consensus but matched the revised prior reading; trade was near consensus.均在開盤前公開。就業強於共識但與修訂後前值持平，貿易接近預期。 |
| 09:45服务业PMI、10:00 ISM09:45 services PMI,10:00 ISM09:45服務業PMI、10:00 ISM | S&P服务业PMI终值56.1，初值57.9，9月58.8，盘前所引TD表未列终值共识。ISM服务业54.5，低于共识54.8和前值54.9；价格73.0（前74.0），就业51.4（前50.1）。S&P final services PMI56.1 versus flash57.9 and 9 month58.8; the cited morning TD table did not list a final-reading consensus. ISM services54.5 versus consensus54.8 and prior54.9; prices73.0 (prior74.0), employment51.4 (prior50.1).S&P服務業PMI終值56.1，初值57.9，9月58.8，盤前所引TD表未列終值共識。ISM服務業54.5，低於共識54.8和前值54.9；價格73.0（前74.0），就業51.4（前50.1）。 | 扩张放缓，价格分项仍高。SPY在09:45收767.71、10:00收767.23、10:05收768.02，未出现持续失守昨高。两项数据与选举后交易同时影响市场，因果不可独立识别。Expansion slowed, with the price component still elevated. SPY closed767.71 at09:45,767.23 at10:00 and768.02 at10:05, without sustained prior-high failure. These data coincided with post-election trading; independent causality cannot be isolated.擴張放緩，價格分項仍高。SPY在09:45收767.71、10:00收767.23、10:05收768.02，未出現持續失守昨高。兩項數據與選舉後交易同時影響市場，因果不可獨立識別。 |
| 利率、美元、波动率Rates, dollar, volatility利率、美元、波動率 | 2年美债16:04报4.579%（前4.614%，−3.5基点）；10年16:05报4.888%（前4.950%，−6.2基点）。美元指数16:05报101.519（−0.348），VIX报16.76（−4.07点）。2-year Treasury16:04 yield4.579% (prior4.614%,−3.5 basis points); 10-year16:05 yield4.888% (prior4.950%,−6.2 basis points). Dollar index16:05 was101.519 (−0.348); VIX16.76 (−4.07 points).2年美債16:04報4.579%（前4.614%，−3.5基點）；10年16:05報4.888%（前4.950%，−6.2基點）。美元指數16:05報101.519（−0.348），VIX報16.76（−4.07點）。 | 较前收均下降；美元较早盘101.292回升。油价与长端利率回落符合原判断中的估值传导，不能由同向走势推出政策已经改变。Fed 10月28日目标区间为3.75%–4.00%，本次未核实当日新政策决定或改变该口径的讲话。All declined versus prior closes; the dollar rose from the morning101.292. Lower oil and long yields fit the original valuation channel but co-movement does not establish a policy change. The Fed's10/28 target range was3.75%–4.00%; no new same-day decision or speech changing it was verified.較前收均下降；美元較早盤101.292回升。油價與長端利率回落符合原判斷中的估值傳導，不能由同向走勢推出政策已經改變。Fed 10月28日目標區間為3.75%–4.00%，本次未核實當日新政策決定或改變該口徑的講話。 |
| 能源、地缘与选举Energy, geopolitics and elections能源、地緣與選舉 | 15:55延迟WTI 12月期货88.72美元／桶，对前结算96.09跌7.37美元（约7.67%）；该笔为盘中报价。EIA公布截至10月30日不含战略储备的原油库存4.09760亿桶，周减86.5万桶，前周减189.2万桶；Trading Economics列共识为增90万桶。15:55 delayed 12 month WTI futures quoted88.72 dollars/barrel, down7.37 from prior settlement96.09 (about7.67%); this is an intraday quote. EIA commercial crude excluding strategic reserves was4.09760 hundred million barrels for the week ending10/30, down86.5 ten-thousand barrels versus a prior189.2 ten-thousand decline; Trading Economics listed consensus for a90 ten-thousand increase.15:55延遲WTI 12月期貨88.72美元／桶，對前結算96.09跌7.37美元（約7.67%）；該筆為盤中報價。EIA公佈截至10月30日不含戰略儲備的原油庫存4.09760億桶，周減86.5萬桶，前周減189.2萬桶；Trading Economics列共識為增90萬桶。 | 库存下降与油价大跌并存，单靠当周库存不足以解释跌幅。AP报道民主党赢得两院多数，投资者重估美国对伊朗政策及能源风险溢价；海峡全面复航、新出口许可或具体数据中心禁令均未获本次确认。A stock draw coincided with sharply lower oil; weekly inventory alone cannot explain the move. AP reported Democratic majorities in both chambers and investor reassessment of US Iran policy and energy risk premiums. Full strait reopening, new export permits and a specific data-center ban were not confirmed.庫存下降與油價大跌並存，單靠當週庫存不足以解釋跌幅。AP報道民主黨贏得兩院多數，投資者重估美國對伊朗政策及能源風險溢價；海峽全面復航、新出口許可或具體數據中心禁令均未獲本次確認。 |
ADP公告 · BEA · TD事前共识 · S&P服务业终值报道 · ISM结果 · EIA库存表 · 库存共识 · Fed声明 · AP市场报道 Source · Source · Source · Source · Source · Source · Source · Source · SourceADP公告 · BEA · TD事前共識 · S&P服務業終值報道 · ISM結果 · EIA庫存表 · 庫存共識 · Fed聲明 · AP市場報道
盘前已知AMD报告数据中心收入同比增长97%，并称OpenAI等客户在首批Helios系统上运行工作负载。今天OpenAI另公告拟收购Pierre，尚未以此确认交割、模型收入增长或付款。当前证据没有分别给出模型客户全年实收、芯片采购回款、融资到账或已投入使用的电力容量。对选举后审批和能源价格的担忧可通过建设工期、成本和估值折现率传导；盘后的供应商指引不参与上述盘中归因。AMD公告 · OpenAI公告The morning already knew AMD's data-center revenue grew97% year-on-year and that it said OpenAI and other customers were running workloads on early Helios systems. OpenAI separately announced a proposed Pierre acquisition today; that does not verify completion, model-revenue growth or payment. Current evidence does not separately establish model customers' full-year cash receipts, chip-purchase collections, financing receipts or commissioned power capacity. Post-election permitting and energy concerns can affect construction timing, costs and valuation discount rates; after-close supplier guidance is not used for intraday attribution. Source · Source盤前已知AMD報告數據中心收入同比增長97%，並稱OpenAI等客户在首批Helios系統上運行工作負載。今天OpenAI另公告擬收購Pierre，尚未以此確認交割、模型收入增長或付款。當前證據沒有分別給出模型客户全年實收、芯片採購回款、融資到賬或已投入使用的電力容量。對選舉後審批和能源價格的擔憂可通過建設工期、成本和估值折現率傳導；盤後的供應商指引不參與上述盤中歸因。AMD公告 · OpenAI公告
重要财报与盘后新增事实Important earnings and new after-close facts重要財報與盤後新增事實
依指数权重、AI算力／网络／广告及行业规模核对当日财报日历。以下除特别标注外均为美元。SEC时刻为材料最迟已公开的证据，精确快报首发秒数未逐家核定；所有下列盘后电话会在本稿定稿时尚未开始。The same-day earnings calendar was checked for index weight, AI compute/networking/advertising and industry scale. Unless stated otherwise, figures are US dollars. SEC timestamps establish that material was public no later than those times; exact first-release seconds were not established for every company. Every after-close call below had not started at the source cutoff. Company financial amounts below use hundred million dollars unless explicitly quoted per share; management guidance is attributed to the company. Source依指數權重、AI算力／網絡／廣告及行業規模核對當日財報日曆。以下除特別標註外均為美元。SEC時刻為材料最遲已公開的證據，精確快報首發秒數未逐家核定；所有下列盤後電話會在本稿定稿時尚未開始。
| 公司／公开时点及电话会（美东）Company / disclosure and call time (Eastern)公司／公開時點及電話會（美東） | 当季实绩、盈利质量和公司指引Quarterly results, earnings quality and company guidance當季實績、盈利質量和公司指引 |
|---|---|
| 高通 QCOM，SEC 16:03:36，电话会16:45Qualcomm QCOM, SEC16:03:36; call16:45高通 QCOM，SEC 16:03:36，電話會16:45 | FY26 Q4 GAAP／调整收入103.22／104.42亿，GAAP／调整EPS 1.17／2.17。手机芯片收入51.37亿（−26%），汽车19.90亿（+89%）；芯片业务税前利润率由29%降至24%。按全年减前九个月，单季经营现金流27.40亿、资本支出9.16亿，自由现金流约18.24亿。全年GAAP利润含57亿税收收益，不归入本季经营改善。公司披露与亚马逊开展多代数据中心产品合作，重申FY27数据中心营收目标50亿；协议金额及已回款额未知。下季收入指引104–112亿、调整EPS 2.15–2.35。公司称本季调整收入在旧指引高端。SEC快报 · SEC现金流数据FY26 Q4 GAAP/adjusted revenue103.22/104.42 hundred million, GAAP/adjusted EPS1.17/2.17. Handset-chip revenue51.37 hundred million (−26%), automotive19.90 hundred million (+89%); chip pretax margin fell from29% to24%. Annual less nine-month cash flows imply quarterly operating cash27.40 hundred million, capex9.16 hundred million and free cash about18.24 hundred million. Annual GAAP profit includes a57 hundred million tax benefit, excluded from this quarter's operating improvement. The company disclosed multigeneration data-center product collaboration with Amazon and reiterated its FY27 data-center revenue objective50 hundred million; agreement value and cash collections are unknown. Next-quarter guidance: revenue104–112 hundred million, adjusted EPS2.15–2.35. It said quarterly adjusted revenue was at the high end of previous guidance. Source · SourceFY26 Q4 GAAP／調整收入103.22／104.42億，GAAP／調整EPS 1.17／2.17。手機芯片收入51.37億（−26%），汽車19.90億（+89%）；芯片業務税前利潤率由29%降至24%。按全年減前九個月，單季經營現金流27.40億、資本支出9.16億，自由現金流約18.24億。全年GAAP利潤含57億税收收益，不歸入本季經營改善。公司披露與亞馬遜開展多代數據中心產品合作，重申FY27數據中心營收目標50億；協議金額及已回款額未知。下季收入指引104–112億、調整EPS 2.15–2.35。公司稱本季調整收入在舊指引高端。SEC快報 · SEC現金流數據 |
| Arm，SEC 16:02:18，电话会17:00Arm, SEC16:02:18; call17:00Arm，SEC 16:02:18，電話會17:00 | FY27 Q2收入14.43亿（+27%），越过原指引13.8亿±0.5亿的上沿。授权等收入7.73亿（+50%）、版税6.70亿（+8%），数据中心版税同比翻倍。GAAP／调整EPS 0.12／0.52美元，前者同比下降45%，后者上升33%；GAAP／调整经营利润率13.9%／44.2%。经营现金流2.07亿、自由现金流1.10亿，低于去年同期5.67亿、4.11亿。管理层给出下季收入15.4亿±0.5亿、调整EPS 0.56±0.04。授权收入与出货后收取的版税增长节奏明显不同。公司股东信FY27 Q2 revenue14.43 hundred million (+27%), above the upper end of previous13.8±0.5 hundred million guidance. Licensing and other revenue7.73 hundred million (+50%), royalties6.70 hundred million (+8%); data-center royalties doubled year-on-year. GAAP/adjusted EPS0.12/0.52 dollars, down45% and up33% respectively; GAAP/adjusted operating margins13.9%/44.2%. Operating cash2.07 hundred million and free cash1.10 hundred million versus5.67 and4.11 hundred million a year earlier. Management's next-quarter guidance: revenue15.4±0.5 hundred million and adjusted EPS0.56±0.04. Licensing and post-shipment royalty growth have distinctly different timing. SourceFY27 Q2收入14.43億（+27%），越過原指引13.8億±0.5億的上沿。授權等收入7.73億（+50%）、版税6.70億（+8%），數據中心版税同比翻倍。GAAP／調整EPS 0.12／0.52美元，前者同比下降45%，後者上升33%；GAAP／調整經營利潤率13.9%／44.2%。經營現金流2.07億、自由現金流1.10億，低於去年同期5.67億、4.11億。管理層給出下季收入15.4億±0.5億、調整EPS 0.56±0.04。授權收入與出貨後收取的版税增長節奏明顯不同。公司股東信 |
| Coherent COHR，SEC 16:05:07，电话会16:30Coherent COHR, SEC16:05:07; call16:30Coherent COHR，SEC 16:05:07，電話會16:30 | FY27 Q1收入23.70亿（+50%），GAAP／调整EPS 1.90／2.09，毛利率39.1%／40.6%。定价和成本改善支持毛利，但GAAP经营利润率15.9%，同比仍下降约0.5个百分点。经营现金流−0.927亿、购置设备7.755亿，按两者差额自由现金流约−8.682亿。AI光互联需求已反映在销售，扩产仍占用现金。公司下季指引收入25.5–27.5亿、调整EPS 2.28–2.48。SEC快报FY27 Q1 revenue23.70 hundred million (+50%), GAAP/adjusted EPS1.90/2.09, gross margins39.1%/40.6%. Pricing and cost improvement supported gross margin, but GAAP operating margin15.9% was still down about0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Operating cash−0.927 hundred million and equipment purchases7.755 hundred million imply free cash about−8.682 hundred million. AI optical demand is reflected in sales while expansion consumes cash. Company next-quarter guidance: revenue25.5–27.5 hundred million, adjusted EPS2.28–2.48. SourceFY27 Q1收入23.70億（+50%），GAAP／調整EPS 1.90／2.09，毛利率39.1%／40.6%。定價和成本改善支持毛利，但GAAP經營利潤率15.9%，同比仍下降約0.5個百分點。經營現金流−0.927億、購置設備7.755億，按兩者差額自由現金流約−8.682億。AI光互聯需求已反映在銷售，擴產仍佔用現金。公司下季指引收入25.5–27.5億、調整EPS 2.28–2.48。SEC快報 |
| AppLovin APP，已于16:06:39取得公司快报，电话会17:00AppLovin APP, company release obtained16:06:39; call17:00AppLovin APP，已於16:06:39取得公司快報，電話會17:00 | Q3收入21.85亿（+55%）、净利润14.39亿（+72%），GAAP稀释EPS 4.30，净利率66%、调整EBITDA率84%。经营／自由现金流均约14亿，广告平台变现已有现金支持。公司Q4收入指引23.65–23.95亿、调整EBITDA率84%–85%。当季回购及股权奖励结算代扣合计14亿，不能将其全数解释为公开市场回购。未核定可比调整EPS。公司公告Q3 revenue21.85 hundred million (+55%), net income14.39 hundred million (+72%), GAAP diluted EPS4.30, net margin66%, adjusted EBITDA margin84%. Operating/free cash were each about14 hundred million, supporting advertising-platform monetization. Company Q4 guidance: revenue23.65–23.95 hundred million and adjusted EBITDA margin84%–85%. Quarterly repurchases plus tax withholding on equity-award settlement totaled14 hundred million; not all were open-market repurchases. Comparable adjusted EPS was not verified. SourceQ3收入21.85億（+55%）、淨利潤14.39億（+72%），GAAP稀釋EPS 4.30，淨利率66%、調整EBITDA率84%。經營／自由現金流均約14億，廣告平台變現已有現金支持。公司Q4收入指引23.65–23.95億、調整EBITDA率84%–85%。當季回購及股權獎勵結算代扣合計14億，不能將其全數解釋為公開市場回購。未核定可比調整EPS。公司公告 |
| McKesson MCK，SEC 16:06:32，电话会16:30McKesson MCK, SEC16:06:32; call16:30McKesson MCK，SEC 16:06:32，電話會16:30 | FY27 Q2收入1,109.57亿（+8%），GAAP／调整EPS 10.44／11.68，经营现金流30.70亿、自由现金流约29亿。处方量、专科药分销及股数下降都贡献了每股盈利增长。全年调整EPS指引由44.20–45.00上调至45.60–46.40。SEC快报FY27 Q2 revenue1,109.57 hundred million (+8%), GAAP/adjusted EPS10.44/11.68, operating cash30.70 hundred million and free cash about29 hundred million. Prescription volume, specialty distribution and share-count reduction all contributed to EPS growth. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance increased from44.20–45.00 to45.60–46.40. SourceFY27 Q2收入1,109.57億（+8%），GAAP／調整EPS 10.44／11.68，經營現金流30.70億、自由現金流約29億。處方量、專科藥分銷及股數下降都貢獻了每股盈利增長。全年調整EPS指引由44.20–45.00上調至45.60–46.40。SEC快報 |
| Snap SNAP，公司安排盘后、17:00电话会Snap SNAP, company scheduled after-close results and17:00 callSnap SNAP，公司安排盤後、17:00電話會 | 截至本次有界复查，未取得可核的当季数字表；最新收入、广告价格、订阅变现及指引待核。不能从日历或报价推导实绩。Snap官方日程No verifiable quarterly numerical table was obtained within the bounded source recheck. Latest revenue, ad prices, subscription monetization and guidance remain unverified; a calendar or quote cannot establish results. Source截至本次有界複查，未取得可核的當季數字表；最新收入、廣告價格、訂閲變現及指引待核。不能從日曆或報價推導實績。Snap官方日程 |
预期口径：11月4日当日财报日历列AppLovin收入共识20.8亿，实际21.85亿，高约5%；采样分钟及样本量未披露。高通、Arm和其余公司的市场EPS预测未逐项确认调整定义、样本截点或股本口径，正文以实际与公司既有指引作比较，有缺项处不计超预期幅度。日历收入预期Consensus basis: the11/4 earnings calendar listed AppLovin revenue consensus20.8 hundred million versus actual21.85, about5% higher; sampling minute and sample size were undisclosed. Qualcomm, Arm and other market EPS estimates were not individually verified for adjustment definition, sampling cutoff or share-count basis. The article compares results with company prior guidance where available; missing comparable fields do not support a beat percentage. Source預期口徑：11月4日當日財報日曆列AppLovin收入共識20.8億，實際21.85億，高約5%；採樣分鐘及樣本量未披露。高通、Arm和其餘公司的市場EPS預測未逐項確認調整定義、樣本截點或股本口徑，正文以實際與公司既有指引作比較，有缺項處不計超預期幅度。日曆收入預期
盘前已知的重要发布。 Datadog最迟07:11已向SEC提交，Q3收入12.0亿（+35%）、GAAP／调整EPS 0.32／0.81，GAAP经营利润率6%、调整28%，经营／自由现金流2.90／2.51亿。年经常性收入达10万美元的客户约4,860家；这是客户规模指标。Uber、麦当劳、CVS、Novo Nordisk的晨间业绩已列入盘前原稿，今天常规收盘分别涨4.91%、涨6.58%、跌12.54%、涨4.93%。其中CVS收入增长及上调全年指引与收跌同时发生，仅以EPS或指引方向不能解释当日回报。Datadog财报 · CVS公告Important releases already known before the open. Datadog filed with the SEC no later than07:11: Q3 revenue12.0 hundred million (+35%), GAAP/adjusted EPS0.32/0.81, GAAP/adjusted operating margins6%/28%, operating/free cash2.90/2.51 hundred million. About4,860 customers had annual recurring revenue of at least10 ten-thousand dollars; this measures customer scale. Uber, McDonald's, CVS and Novo Nordisk morning earnings were included in the original report; their regular-session returns were respectively4.91%,6.58%,12.54%,4.93%. CVS revenue growth and raised annual guidance coincided with a decline, so EPS or guidance direction alone does not explain the return. Source · Source盤前已知的重要發佈。 Datadog最遲07:11已向SEC提交，Q3收入12.0億（+35%）、GAAP／調整EPS 0.32／0.81，GAAP經營利潤率6%、調整28%，經營／自由現金流2.90／2.51億。年經常性收入達10萬美元的客户約4,860家；這是客户規模指標。Uber、麥當勞、CVS、Novo Nordisk的晨間業績已列入盤前原稿，今天常規收盤分別漲4.91%、漲6.58%、跌12.54%、漲4.93%。其中CVS收入增長及上調全年指引與收跌同時發生，僅以EPS或指引方向不能解釋當日回報。Datadog財報 · CVS公告
早段盘后成交。 以下是Nasdaq标为实时的11月4日16:05 EST成交，相对当日16:00正式收盘。所有行情都早于电话会，MCK这一笔甚至早于所核SEC接收时间，因此不能统一当作市场读完财报的反应。Early after-hours trades. Nasdaq marked the following11/4 at16:05 EST trades as real-time, compared with the same-day16:00 official close. All preceded calls; MCK's trade even preceded its verified SEC acceptance time. They cannot uniformly be treated as reactions after reading the earnings release.早段盤後成交。 以下是Nasdaq標為實時的11月4日16:05 EST成交，相對當日16:00正式收盤。所有行情都早於電話會，MCK這一筆甚至早於所核SEC接收時間，因此不能統一當作市場讀完財報的反應。
| 标的Symbol標的 | 16:00收盘16:00 close16:00收盤 | 16:05盘后成交16:05 after-hours trade16:05盤後成交 | 较常规收盘Versus regular close較常規收盤 |
|---|---|---|---|
| QCOMQCOMQCOM | 173.19173.19173.19 | 164.7600164.7600164.7600 | -4.87%-4.87%-4.87% |
| ARMARMARM | 191.80191.80191.80 | 194.0000194.0000194.0000 | +1.15%+1.15%+1.15% |
| COHRCOHRCOHR | 195.18195.18195.18 | 203.8500203.8500203.8500 | +4.44%+4.44%+4.44% |
| APPAPPAPP | 271.75271.75271.75 | 283.4400283.4400283.4400 | +4.30%+4.30%+4.30% |
| MCKMCKMCK | 1,069.021,069.021,069.02 | 1,069.37581,069.37581,069.3758 | +0.03%+0.03%+0.03% |
市场持续状态摘要Continuing market-state summary市場持續狀態摘要
截至2026-11-04T16:10:55-05:00，M1的方向、两段路径均达成，原失效条件未触发。等权跑赢、小盘略落后SPY，半导体收跌。高通、Arm、Coherent、AppLovin、McKesson快报已取得，其16:30、16:45、17:00电话会内容仍待披露。Snap数字表、完整涨跌家数、客户付款额与新电力投产量未核定。As of2026-11-04T16:10:55-05:00, M1 direction and both path steps passed, without original invalidation. Equal-weight stocks led, small caps slightly lagged SPY and semiconductors declined. Qualcomm, Arm, Coherent, AppLovin and McKesson releases were obtained; their16:30,16:45 and17:00 call contents remained pending at that cutoff. Snap's numerical table, complete advancing/declining counts, customer cash payments and newly commissioned power were unverified.截至2026-11-04T16:10:55-05:00，M1的方向、兩段路徑均達成，原失效條件未觸發。等權跑贏、小盤略落後SPY，半導體收跌。高通、Arm、Coherent、AppLovin、McKesson快報已取得，其16:30、16:45、17:00電話會內容仍待披露。Snap數字表、完整漲跌家數、客户付款額與新電力投產量未核定。
财报与电话会状态截至源稿16:10:55 EST，不代表网站上线时最新进度。财政部日收益率表未单独核验，盘中或16:04–16:05市场报价不能冒充财政部正式日值。部分公司资本开支、融资租赁和可比共识缺失，明确未知。Earnings and call statuses are as of the source16:10:55 EST, not the newest state at website release. Treasury daily yields were not separately verified; intraday or16:04–16:05 market quotes are not official Treasury daily values. Some company capex, finance-lease and comparable-consensus fields remain unknown.財報與電話會狀態截至源稿16:10:55 EST，不代表網站上線時最新進度。財政部日收益率表未單獨核驗，盤中或16:04–16:05市場報價不能冒充財政部正式日值。部分公司資本開支、融資租賃和可比共識缺失，明確未知。