MSFT / M02 / MODEL RESEARCH
Microsoft M02：历史PE参照能否改善目标价Microsoft M02: can historical P/E references improve price targets?Microsoft M02：歷史PE參照能否改善目標價
返回完整研究演进Back to model evolution返回完整研究演進 · 返回MSFT个股模型值Back to MSFT equity model values返回MSFT個股模型值
研究问题、参考时点与公式Research question, reference timing and equations研究問題、參考時點與公式
盈利路径完全保留M00；每个起点取此前24个已完成月份的最后交易日，分别用各快照当时已公开财报重算CoreEPS0和隐含PE。参照是logPE中位数，至少12个有效快照；不填第25个月，不用当前财务回填旧快照。The earnings path is exactly M00. Each origin considers the final session of 24 previous completed months, recomputing CoreEPS0 and implied P/E using information available at each snapshot. The reference is median log P/E, requiring at least 12 valid snapshots; no 25th month fills exclusions and current financial inputs do not backfill old snapshots.盈利路徑完全保留M00；每個起點取此前24個已完成月份的最後交易日，分別用各快照當時已公開財報重算CoreEPS0和隱含PE。參照是logPE中位數，至少12個有效快照；不填第25個月，不用當前財務回填舊快照。
SnapshotPE_s = Price_s / M00CoreEPS0_s ReferenceLogPE = median(log SnapshotPE_s) PE_h = PE0 × exp[(1−2^(-h/12)) × (ReferenceLogPE−log PE0)] Price_h = M00CoreEPS_h × PE_h
24个月参考和12个月回归半衰期在结果前冻结，参照在每个起点的全期限固定。历史隐含PE含盈利模型分母误差，不是独立公允PE、国债或美联储利率预测。The 24-month reference and 12-month reversion half-life were frozen before results. The reference stays fixed across each origin’s horizons. Historical implied P/E contains earnings-denominator model error; it is not independent fair P/E or a Treasury/Fed-rate forecast.24個月參考和12個月迴歸半衰期在結果前凍結，參照在每個起點的全期限固定。歷史隱含PE含盈利模型分母誤差，不是獨立公允PE、國債或美聯儲利率預測。
输入截面与失败决定Input dates and rejection輸入截面與失敗決定
当前研究截面2026-10-07，历史标签截点2026-10-06。6M平均误差略降但没有达到完整筛选；12M误差上升，分析师共同终点中位误差也未通过预先门槛。The live research snapshot is October 7, 2026; historical labels end October 6.6M mean error fell modestly without passing the full screen;12M error rose, and median error on common analyst endpoints failed the predeclared requirement.當前研究截面2026-10-07，歷史標籤截點2026-10-06。6M平均誤差略降但沒有達到完整篩選；12M誤差上升，分析師共同終點中位誤差也未通過預先門檻。
历史PE回归没有带来完整的双期限改进，不能因当前目标更接近分析师而采用。Historical P/E reversion did not improve both horizons sufficiently. Current agreement with analysts does not establish predictive accuracy.歷史PE迴歸沒有帶來完整的雙期限改進，不能因當前目標更接近分析師而採用。
保留原三年月度研究：不与季度样本混排Preserve original monthly studies: separate from quarterly samples保留原三年月度研究：不與季度樣本混排
M01/M02使用原三年月末与分析师观察日面板，标签截至10月6日；M03另用财报后季度面板和10月8日截点。两个面板不是同一批起点，不可直接按误差大小排序版本。M01/M02 retain the original three-year month-end and analyst-observation panels through October 6. M03 instead uses post-earnings quarterly origins and an October 8 cutoff. These are different origin panels; their errors should not be ranked as if they came from identical samples.M01/M02使用原三年月末與分析師觀察日面板，標籤截至10月6日；M03另用財報後季度面板和10月8日截點。兩個面板不是同一批起點，不可直接按誤差大小排序版本。
| 版本Version版本 | 6M：成熟30 / 待到期66M:30 mature /6 pending6M：成熟30 / 待到期6 | 12M：成熟24 / 待到期1212M:24 mature /12 pending12M：成熟24 / 待到期12 |
|---|---|---|
| M00 | 15.15% | 10.41% |
| M01 | 15.30% | 11.15% |
| M02 | 14.67% | 11.11% |
| 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 14.66% | 10.04% |
| 版本 / 对照Version / reference版本 / 對照 | 到期收盘MAPETerminal-close MAPE到期收盤MAPE |
|---|---|
| M00 | 10.10% |
| M01 | 10.74% |
| M02 | 10.86% |
| 分析师平均目标Mean analyst target分析師平均目標 | 13.20% |
| 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 9.82% |
36个分析师真实观察日按同日重算模型，其中24个12M共同终点成熟。目标意见差与真实误差分开，分析师未参与训练。M01与M02均未通过完整冻结筛选。Models were recomputed on 36 actual analyst-observation dates, with 24 mature common 12M endpoints. Target disagreement is separate from actual error, and analysts were not training inputs. M01 and M02 failed their complete frozen screens.36個分析師真實觀察日按同日重算模型，其中24個12M共同終點成熟。目標意見差與真實誤差分開，分析師未參與訓練。M01與M02均未通過完整凍結篩選。
计算通过，模型有效性仍待验证Arithmetic passed; model validity remains unproved計算通過，模型有效性仍待驗證
独立复核确认计算、日期和来源约束一致；这不等于采用筛选通过。历史资料按已公开日期重建，Q4股数与日分配标签含近似，PIT原始版本、独立样本外和前瞻有效性尚未证明。Independent review confirmed arithmetic, dates and source-availability constraints. This is distinct from passing adoption screens. Historical inputs are reconstructed by public dates, with Q4-share and daily-allocation approximations. Original immutable PIT vintages, independent out-of-sample results and prospective validity remain unproved.獨立複核確認計算、日期和來源約束一致；這不等於採用篩選通過。歷史資料按已公開日期重建，Q4股數與日分配標籤含近似，PIT原始版本、獨立樣本外和前瞻有效性尚未證明。
原预测和失败版本均保留。当前M00是条件研究参照，并非正式已验证模型。M03完整CoreEPS窗口0M/6M/12M分别35/33/31个，三个期限对数误差都比M00大；峰值评分并没有证明盈利预测改善。Original forecasts and rejected versions are preserved. M00 is a conditional research reference, not a validated production model. M03 has 35/33/31 complete Core EPS windows at 0M/6M/12M; all three log-error panels worsened versus M00. Peak scores did not validate better earnings forecasts.原預測和失敗版本均保留。當前M00是條件研究參照，並非正式已驗證模型。M03完整CoreEPS窗口0M/6M/12M分別35/33/31個，三個期限對數誤差都比M00大；峯值評分並沒有證明盈利預測改善。
本页只展示自身模型预测、原创方法与聚合对照结论。商业原始逐日分析师数据、逐季度精确目标记录和供应商原图线保留内部。This page publishes own forecasts, original methods and aggregate comparative conclusions. Commercial daily analyst records, exact per-quarter vendor targets and original vendor charts remain internal.本頁只展示自身模型預測、原創方法與聚合對照結論。商業原始逐日分析師數據、逐季度精確目標記錄和供應商原圖線保留內部。
微软财报来源Microsoft issuer earnings微軟財報來源 · SEC原始申报SEC original filingsSEC原始申報 · 分析师数据来源Analyst data source分析師數據來源