$522.61
目标日 2026-10-08Target date 2026-10-08目標日 2026-10-08
Core EPS 21.352646 × 24.475187
MSFT / MODEL RESEARCH / 2026-10-09
Microsoft估值模型：M00参照与M01–M03研究Microsoft valuation models: M00 reference and M01–M03 researchMicrosoft估值模型：M00參照與M01–M03研究
继续保留M00：当前有日期的研究目标M00 remains retained: dated research targets繼續保留M00：當前有日期的研究目標
$546.02
目标日 2027-04-08Target date 2027-04-08目標日 2027-04-08
Core EPS 22.309319 × 24.475187
$562.14
目标日 2027-10-08Target date 2027-10-08目標日 2027-10-08
Core EPS 22.967723 × 24.475187
| 期限Horizon期限 | 目标日Target date目標日 | 模型值 USD/股Model value USD/share模型值 USD/股 | Core EPS | 同口径固定PEHeld same-basis P/E同口徑固定PE | 目标日起随后12个月盈利窗口（右端不含）Following 12-month earnings window (end exclusive)目標日起隨後12個月盈利窗口（右端不含） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0M | 2026-10-08 | $522.61 | 21.352646 | 24.475187× | 2026-10-08 → 2027-10-08 |
| 6M | 2027-04-08 | $546.02 | 22.309319 | 24.475187× | 2027-04-08 → 2028-04-08 |
| 12M | 2027-10-08 | $562.14 | 22.967723 | 24.475187× | 2027-10-08 → 2028-10-08 |
继续保留M00作为条件研究参照。0M为10月8日市场价格锚；6M与12M按预测盈利和相同口径PE计算。M01、M02、M03均未通过采用筛选。M00 remains the conditional research reference. The 0M value is the October 8 market-price anchor; 6M and 12M combine projected earnings with the same model-implied P/E. M01, M02 and M03 did not pass their adoption screens.繼續保留M00作為條件研究參照。0M為10月8日市場價格錨；6M與12M按預測盈利和相同口徑PE計算。M01、M02、M03均未通過採用篩選。
输入为10月8日官方结算收盘$522.61，最新已披露完整财季截至2026-06-30。这是发布所依据的冻结截面，发布日没有用盘中或盘后报价重算。The input is the October 8 official settled close of $522.61, with the latest complete reported quarter ending June 30, 2026. This is the frozen publication snapshot; intraday and after-hours quotes did not recalculate it on publication day.輸入為10月8日官方結算收盤$522.61，最新已披露完整財季截至2026-06-30。這是發佈所依據的凍結截面，發佈日沒有用盤中或盤後報價重算。
查看M00完整方法与假设 →Read complete M00 methods and assumptions →查看M00完整方法與假設 →从盈利到价格：M00的计算条件From earnings to price: M00 calculation conditions從盈利到價格：M00的計算條件
CoreEPS采用GAAP营业利润、统一15%归一化税率和稀释股数，区别于公司净利润EPS和供应商adjusted EPS。每个期限使用目标日起随后12个月盈利。固定PE由市价和本模型EPS0计算，不是独立公允倍数。Core EPS uses GAAP operating income, a normalized 15% tax rate and diluted shares. It differs from reported net EPS and vendor-adjusted EPS. Each horizon uses earnings over the following 12 months. Held P/E is implied by the market price and this model’s EPS0, not an independently estimated fair multiple.CoreEPS採用GAAP營業利潤、統一15%歸一化税率和稀釋股數，區別於公司淨利潤EPS和供應商adjusted EPS。每個期限使用目標日起隨後12個月盈利。固定PE由市價和本模型EPS0計算，不是獨立公允倍數。
QuarterCoreEPS = ForecastGAAPOperatingIncome × 0.85 / HeldDilutedShares CoreEPS_h = Σ QuarterCoreEPS × OverlapDays / QuarterDays PE0 = P0 / CoreEPS0 Price_h = CoreEPS_h × PE0 22.309319018842125 × 24.47518690971481 = 546.0247528146165 (6M) 22.96772344045845 × 24.47518690971481 = 562.1393240958587 (12M)
下一未披露季度的日均收入，以去年同季日均值乘最近已披露季度同比比例；随后按最近12个连续已知季度季节性、四季度增长半衰期递推。保持最新四季GAAP营业利润率及最新已知季度稀释股数。微软FY截至6月30日，按真实季度与日历天数分配盈利。Next-quarter daily revenue uses the prior-year same-quarter daily value times the latest reported quarter’s YoY ratio. Later quarters use seasonality from 12 contiguous known quarters and a four-quarter growth half-life. The latest four-quarter GAAP operating margin and latest known diluted shares are held. Microsoft’s fiscal year ends June 30; real fiscal-quarter and calendar days allocate earnings.下一未披露季度的日均收入，以去年同季日均值乘最近已披露季度同比比例；隨後按最近12個連續已知季度季節性、四季度增長半衰期遞推。保持最新四季GAAP營業利潤率及最新已知季度稀釋股數。微軟FY截至6月30日，按真實季度與日曆天數分配盈利。
在利润率、股数和税率固定并以市价倒算PE时，价格比例可化简为预测收入窗口之比。这个模型并未独立求出微软公允PE，0M与市价相等不能证明低估。With fixed margin, shares and tax and a P/E inferred from the market price, the price ratio reduces to the ratio of projected revenue windows. The model does not independently estimate Microsoft’s fair P/E; matching the 0M market price does not establish undervaluation.在利潤率、股數和税率固定並以市價倒算PE時，價格比例可化簡為預測收入窗口之比。這個模型並未獨立求出微軟公允PE，0M與市價相等不能證明低估。
每次改动都保存：M00–M03迭代记录Preserve every change: M00–M03 iteration record每次改動都保存：M00–M03迭代記錄
| 版本Version版本 | 研究机制Research mechanism研究機制 | 输入截面 / 回测截点Input snapshot / historical cutoff輸入截面 / 回測截點 | 决定Decision決定 | 详情Details詳情 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M00 | 单季收入增长与固定同口径PESingle-quarter revenue growth and held same-basis P/E單季收入增長與固定同口徑PE | 2026-10-08 | 保留的条件研究参照Retained conditional research reference保留的條件研究參照 | 方法与验证Methods and evaluation方法與驗證 |
| M01 | 经营成本与净稀释股数路径Operating-cost and net diluted-share paths經營成本與淨稀釋股數路徑 | 2026-10-07 2026-10-06 | 未采用，保留失败版本Not adopted; rejected version preserved未採用，保留失敗版本 | 方法与验证Methods and evaluation方法與驗證 |
| M02 | 历史同口径PE回归Historical same-basis P/E reversion歷史同口徑PE迴歸 | 2026-10-07 2026-10-06 | 未采用，保留失败版本Not adopted; rejected version preserved未採用，保留失敗版本 | 方法与验证Methods and evaluation方法與驗證 |
| M03 | 四季日均收入同比中位数Four-quarter median daily-revenue YoY growth四季日均收入同比中位數 | 2026-10-08 2026-10-08 | 未采用，保留失败版本Not adopted; rejected version preserved未採用，保留失敗版本 | 方法与验证Methods and evaluation方法與驗證 |
M01改变经营成本与股数；M02改变PE；M03只改变收入增长锚。三个候选均未通过各自冻结筛选，没有按单个较好分数或更高目标事后替换主版本。M01/M02原月度样本与M03季度样本不同，误差不能直接混排。M01 changes operating costs and shares; M02 changes P/E; M03 changes only the revenue-growth anchor. Allthree failed their frozen screens. A favorable single metric or a higher target did not retrospectively replace the main version. M01/M02 use monthly panels while M03 uses quarterly events; their errors cannot be ranked as identical samples.M01改變經營成本與股數；M02改變PE；M03只改變收入增長錨。三個候選均未通過各自凍結篩選，沒有按單個較好分數或更高目標事後替換主版本。M01/M02原月度樣本與M03季度樣本不同，誤差不能直接混排。
十年40个财报起点：触达与误差分开Forty earnings origins over ten years: separate touch and error十年40個財報起點：觸達與誤差分開
固定FY2017Q1–FY2026Q4的40次财报后首个完整交易日收盘。6M成熟38、待到期2；12M成熟36、待到期4。完整预计交易日集合核验后才计算峰值，未到期窗口不使用局部最高价充当结果。The panel fixes 40 first complete post-earnings session closes from FY2017Q1 through FY2026Q4. At 6M,38 have matured and 2 are pending; at 12M,36 have matured and 4 are pending. Peaks require complete expected-session coverage; partial-window highs do not replace pending results.固定FY2017Q1–FY2026Q4的40次財報後首個完整交易日收盤。6M成熟38、待到期2；12M成熟36、待到期4。完整預計交易日集合核驗後才計算峯值，未到期窗口不使用局部最高價充當結果。
| 期限Horizon期限 | 模型Model模型 | 已到期NMatured N已到期N | 严格超过目标次数Strict exceedances嚴格超過目標次數 | 超目标比例Exceedance rate超目標比例 | 平均最高价差Mean signed peak gap平均最高價差 | 到期收盘MAPETerminal-close MAPE到期收盤MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M | M00 | 38 | 34/38 | 89.47% | +15.06% | 14.24% |
| 6M | M03 | 38 | 35/38 | 92.11% | +15.55% | 14.21% |
| 6M | 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 38 | 38/38 | 100.00% | +19.55% | 14.67% |
| 12M | M00 | 36 | 32/36 | 88.89% | +28.94% | 20.28% |
| 12M | M03 | 36 | 32/36 | 88.89% | +29.87% | 20.80% |
| 12M | 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 36 | 36/36 | 100.00% | +37.43% | 22.42% |
Strict exceeded: maxHigh > target Mean signed peak gap = mean[100 × (maxHigh − target) / target] Peak window: origin < regular-session date ≤ calendar target date Terminal close: first session on or after calendar target date
超目标比例衡量期限内最高价是否严格高于目标；平均最高价差包含未超过目标的负值。降低目标会机械提高两项指标，不能据此宣称估值更准确。Peak exceedance asks whether the within-horizon intraday high strictly exceeded the target. The mean signed peak gap includes negative values. Lower targets mechanically improve these measures; they do not establish more accurate valuations.超目標比例衡量期限內最高價是否嚴格高於目標；平均最高價差包含未超過目標的負值。降低目標會機械提高兩項指標，不能據此宣稱估值更準確。
M03的6M多达标1次来自较低目标，12M次数没有改变。十年40个目标的平均上涨幅度，M03为6M3.58%、12M6.22%，M00为4.05%、7.05%。M03的12M终点误差变大，未替换M00；不能把超目标比例称为估值准确率。M03’s one additional 6M exceedance came from a lower target;12M exceedances were unchanged. Across 40 forecasts, average upside was 3.58%/6.22% for M03 versus 4.05%/7.05% for M00 at 6M/12M. M03 increased 12M terminal error and did not replace M00. Exceedance rates are not valuation accuracy.M03的6M多達標1次來自較低目標，12M次數沒有改變。十年40個目標的平均上漲幅度，M03為6M3.58%、12M6.22%，M00為4.05%、7.05%。M03的12M終點誤差變大，未替換M00；不能把超目標比例稱為估值準確率。
查看M03研究方法、样本与失败原因 →Read M03 methods, samples and rejection reasons →查看M03研究方法、樣本與失敗原因 →三年季度分析师比较：同日、同期限、同终点Three-year analyst comparison: same date, horizon and endpoint三年季度分析師比較：同日、同期限、同終點
12个季度同日12M目标均已取得，其中8个到期、4个待到期。同日目标差是意见距离；实际误差只比较相同起点和相同到期价格。样本少且窗口重叠，未证明独立样本外优势。All 12 quarterly same-date 12M benchmarks were recorded;8 have matured and 4 remain pending. Same-date target gaps measure disagreement. Actual-price errors use identical origins and terminal dates. The small overlapping sample does not establish independent out-of-sample superiority.12個季度同日12M目標均已取得，其中8個到期、4個待到期。同日目標差是意見距離；實際誤差只比較相同起點和相同到期價格。樣本少且窗口重疊，未證明獨立樣本外優勢。
| 模型 / 对照Model / reference模型 / 對照 | 到期收盘MAPETerminal-close MAPE到期收盤MAPE | 严格超过目标Strict exceedances嚴格超過目標 | 超目标比例Exceedance rate超目標比例 | 平均最高价差Mean signed peak gap平均最高價差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M00 | 12.34% | 7/8 | 87.50% | +17.69% |
| M03 | 12.11% | 7/8 | 87.50% | +18.46% |
| 分析师平均目标Mean analyst target分析師平均目標 | 14.19% | 6/8 | 75.00% | +6.76% |
| 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 11.58% | 8/8 | 100.00% | +26.03% |
全部12个季度中，M03的12M目标相对同日分析师均价平均有符号差为-11.84%，平均绝对差11.84%。这衡量目标意见距离，不是未来真实价格误差。分析师12M没有用于6M评分或训练。Across all 12 quarters, M03’s mean signed 12M target gap to same-date analysts is-11.84%, with mean absolute gap 11.84%. This measures target disagreement, not future actual-price error. Analyst 12M targets were not used for 6M scores or training.全部12個季度中，M03的12M目標相對同日分析師均價平均有符號差為-11.84%，平均絕對差11.84%。這衡量目標意見距離，不是未來真實價格誤差。分析師12M沒有用於6M評分或訓練。
三年6M已到期10个，M03终点MAPE14.11%、M00为14.00%、价格不变13.08%。三年12M仅8个成熟季度且窗口重叠；虽然M03平均误差小于分析师，也不能证明独立预测优势。Three-year 6M has 10 mature origins, with terminal MAPE14.11% for M03,14.00% for M00 and 13.08% for unchanged price. Three-year 12M has only 8 mature overlapping quarterly windows; lower mean error than analysts does not establish independent predictive superiority.三年6M已到期10個，M03終點MAPE14.11%、M00為14.00%、價格不變13.08%。三年12M僅8個成熟季度且窗口重疊；雖然M03平均誤差小於分析師，也不能證明獨立預測優勢。
计算通过，模型有效性仍待验证Arithmetic passed; model validity remains unproved計算通過，模型有效性仍待驗證
独立复核确认计算、日期和来源约束一致；这不等于采用筛选通过。历史资料按已公开日期重建，Q4股数与日分配标签含近似，PIT原始版本、独立样本外和前瞻有效性尚未证明。Independent review confirmed arithmetic, dates and source-availability constraints. This is distinct from passing adoption screens. Historical inputs are reconstructed by public dates, with Q4-share and daily-allocation approximations. Original immutable PIT vintages, independent out-of-sample results and prospective validity remain unproved.獨立複核確認計算、日期和來源約束一致；這不等於採用篩選通過。歷史資料按已公開日期重建，Q4股數與日分配標籤含近似，PIT原始版本、獨立樣本外和前瞻有效性尚未證明。
原预测和失败版本均保留。当前M00是条件研究参照，并非正式已验证模型。M03完整CoreEPS窗口0M/6M/12M分别35/33/31个，三个期限对数误差都比M00大；峰值评分并没有证明盈利预测改善。Original forecasts and rejected versions are preserved. M00 is a conditional research reference, not a validated production model. M03 has 35/33/31 complete Core EPS windows at 0M/6M/12M; all three log-error panels worsened versus M00. Peak scores did not validate better earnings forecasts.原預測和失敗版本均保留。當前M00是條件研究參照，並非正式已驗證模型。M03完整CoreEPS窗口0M/6M/12M分別35/33/31個，三個期限對數誤差都比M00大；峯值評分並沒有證明盈利預測改善。
本页只展示自身模型预测、原创方法与聚合对照结论。商业原始逐日分析师数据、逐季度精确目标记录和供应商原图线保留内部。This page publishes own forecasts, original methods and aggregate comparative conclusions. Commercial daily analyst records, exact per-quarter vendor targets and original vendor charts remain internal.本頁只展示自身模型預測、原創方法與聚合對照結論。商業原始逐日分析師數據、逐季度精確目標記錄和供應商原圖線保留內部。
微软财报来源Microsoft issuer earnings微軟財報來源 · SEC原始申报SEC original filingsSEC原始申報 · 分析师数据来源Analyst data source分析師數據來源