GOOGL / G18 / 2026-10-12
Google G18：财报兑现差驱动的独立PE估值Google G18: independent P/E valuation with profit realizationGoogle G18：財報兑現差驅動的獨立PE估值
当前G18候选估值，未采用Current G18 candidate values, not adopted當前G18候選估值，未採用
研究日期2026-10-12；财务、利率及价格评价截面仍为2026-10-06，最新财务季度2026Q2。以下不是10月12日新行情重算。Research date: October 12, 2026. Financial inputs, rates and price evaluation remain frozen at October 6, 2026, with latest financial quarter 2026Q2. These are not updated October 12 market calculations.研究日期2026-10-12；財務、利率及價格評價截面仍為2026-10-06，最新財務季度2026Q2。以下不是10月12日新行情重算。
| 期限与用途Horizon and role期限與用途 | G18候选计算值G18 candidate valueG18候選計算值 | 原经营EPS代理Unchanged operating-EPS proxy原經營EPS代理 | 同一独立条件PEShared independent conditional P/E同一獨立條件PE | 参考日期 / 截止日Snapshot / deadline參考日期 / 截止日 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0M · 条件公平估计候选Conditional fair-estimate candidate條件公平估計候選 | $321.28 | 12.9502 | 24.8090× | 2026-10-06 |
| 6M · 期限估值候选Horizon valuation candidate期限估值候選 | $340.47 | 13.7238 | 24.8090× | 2027-04-06 |
| 12M · 期限估值候选Horizon valuation candidate期限估值候選 | $377.67 | 15.2232 | 24.8090× | 2027-10-06 |
G18在0M、6M、12M使用同一个独立条件PE，期限差异只来自原冻结Core EPS路径。这是财报兑现差对合理倍数的增量检验，没有用未来期间最高价训练PE。0M为候选条件公平估计；6M、12M为期限估值，经期间触达标准评价，不等于截止日必然成交价格或已证实DCF内在价值。G18 uses one independent conditional P/E at 0M, 6M and 12M; differences by horizon arise only from the frozen Core EPS paths. It tests whether profit realization adds information about a reasonable multiple and does not train P/E on future window peaks. 0M is a candidate conditional fair estimate; 6M and 12M are horizon valuations assessed by within-window attainment, not guaranteed executable deadline prices or validated DCF intrinsic values.G18在0M、6M、12M使用同一個獨立條件PE，期限差異只來自原凍結Core EPS路徑。這是財報兑現差對合理倍數的增量檢驗，沒有用未來期間最高價訓練PE。0M為候選條件公平估計；6M、12M為期限估值，經期間觸達標準評價，不等於截止日必然成交價格或已證實DCF內在價值。
G18的18项替换条件中，11项通过、7项失败。个股页继续分别显示G16的0M条件公平估计$318.51与G05的6M $368.45、12M $464.42主预测；不同模块标注各自版本，不组合成一套新模型。Of G18’s eighteen replacement conditions, eleven pass and seven fail. The equity page continues to display G16’s separate conditional 0M estimate of $318.51 and G05’s retained 6M / 12M forecasts of $368.45 / $464.42. The modules retain their own version labels and do not form a combined new model.G18的18項替換條件中，11項通過、7項失敗。個股頁繼續分別顯示G16的0M條件公平估計$318.51與G05的6M $368.45、12M $464.42主預測；不同模塊標註各自版本，不組合成一套新模型。
财报兑现差如何进入独立PEHow earnings realization enters independent P/E財報兑現差如何進入獨立PE
新增状态是当季实际集团GAAP营业利润相对上一准确财报起点对该季的F4模型预测的兑现差。前预测取上一季度财报后首个完整交易日，以当时已公开的财务重建；不是附近月末缓存，不是本季公布后重算，也不是分析师共识surprise。The new state measures actual group GAAP operating income against the prior exact post-earnings origin’s F4 model forecast for that same quarter. The predecessor is the first complete session after the previous quarter’s release, reconstructed using then-known financial inputs. It is neither a nearby month-end cache, a calculation made after the current release, nor an analyst-consensus surprise.新增狀態是當季實際集團GAAP營業利潤相對上一準確財報起點對該季的F4模型預測的兑現差。前預測取上一季度財報後首個完整交易日，以當時已公開的財務重建；不是附近月末緩存，不是本季公佈後重算，也不是分析師共識surprise。
s_q = log(actual_OP_q / prior_exact_earnings_origin_F4_forecast_OP_q) / 0.10
y_i = log(historical_spot_price_i / unchanged_own_origin_CoreEPS_0_i)
x_i = [annualized_initial_log_revenue_growth_i / 0.10, nominal_10Y_percent_i / 1.0, s_q_i]
minimize sum_i[w_i × (y_i − a − b·(x_i − mu))²] + 4 × (bg² + br² + bs²)
bg >= 0; br <= 0; bs >= 0; intercept a free
PE = exp(a + bg·(g − mu_g) + br·(r − mu_r) + bs·(s − mu_s))
Value_h = unchanged_CoreEPS_h × PE, h in {0, 6, 12}0M、6M保持F4增长路径，12M保持F8；Core EPS＝经营利润×0.85÷起点持有的直接季度稀释股数，按日计算目标日起NTM盈利窗口。它是经营盈利代理，并非GAAP净EPS或分析师预测EPS。只增加PE特征，不改收入、利润率、税率、季节性、股数或任何旧预测。0M and 6M preserve the F4 growth path; 12M preserves F8. Core EPS = operating income × 0.85 / origin-held direct quarterly diluted shares, with day-weighted target-date NTM earnings windows. It is an operating-earnings proxy, not GAAP net EPS or analyst EPS consensus. Only a P/E feature is added; revenue, margins, tax, seasonality, shares and old forecasts remain unchanged.0M、6M保持F4增長路徑，12M保持F8；Core EPS＝經營利潤×0.85÷起點持有的直接季度稀釋股數，按日計算目標日起NTM盈利窗口。它是經營盈利代理，並非GAAP淨EPS或分析師預測EPS。只增加PE特徵，不改收入、利潤率、税率、季節性、股數或任何舊預測。
实际财报已经进入原EPS和成长输入，因此新增系数只检验控制成长与利率后的剩余PE关联；不能把它解释为必然额外增长或财报超预期的因果溢价。创新系数预先约束非负，零系数亦是合法结果。所有期限保持同一PE，没有额外期限衰减、最高价分位折扣、现价上限或评分后修正。The realized financial results already enter the original EPS and growth inputs. The added coefficient therefore tests a remaining conditional P/E association after controlling for growth and rates, not guaranteed extra growth or a causal earnings-surprise premium. Its nonnegative constraint is declared in advance; a zero slope is a valid result. One P/E is held across horizons, without added horizon decay, peak-quantile haircuts, current-price caps or adjustments chosen after scoring.實際財報已經進入原EPS和成長輸入，因此新增係數只檢驗控制成長與利率後的剩餘PE關聯；不能把它解釋為必然額外增長或財報超預期的因果溢價。創新系數預先約束非負，零係數亦是合法結果。所有期限保持同一PE，沒有額外期限衰減、最高價分位折扣、現價上限或評分後修正。
训练仍为原合法月末历史股价÷当时同口径预测Core EPS的logPE；预测当天股价、市值、当前隐含PE、G05目标/c5和分析师目标均不进入当前预测。只取预测点之前已经结束的日历月、最近60个原有效标签，按同财务季度平衡并采用两年半衰期；权重不再归一化。Training still uses the original lawful month-end historical price / its own then-known same-basis forecast Core EPS as a log-P/E label. Today’s quote, market cap, current implied P/E, G05 targets/c5 and analyst targets do not enter the current prediction. Use only prior completed calendar months and the latest sixty originally valid labels, with financial-vintage balancing and a two-year weight half-life; weights are not additionally normalized.訓練仍為原合法月末歷史股價÷當時同口徑預測Core EPS的logPE；預測當天股價、市值、當前隱含PE、G05目標/c5和分析師目標均不進入當前預測。只取預測點之前已經結束的日曆月、最近60個原有效標籤，按同財務季度平衡並採用兩年半衰期；權重不再歸一化。
| 当前拟合项Current fit item當前擬合項 | 数值 / 状态Value / status數值 / 狀態 |
|---|---|
| 训练月数 / 不同财务季Training months / distinct financial vintages訓練月數 / 不同財務季 | 60 / 20 |
| 成长系数 bgGrowth slope bg成長係數 bg | 0.04716093 |
| 名义10Y系数 brNominal 10Y slope br名義10Y係數 br | -0.00000000 |
| 兑现差系数 bsRealization slope bs兑現差係數 bs | 0.04266245 |
| ridge / 权重半衰期Ridge / weight half-liferidge / 權重半衰期 | 4 / 730.5 天days天 |
| 最后合法训练月点Latest eligible training origin最後合法訓練月點 | 2026-09-30 |
G18在0M、6M、12M使用同一个独立条件PE，期限差异只来自原冻结Core EPS路径。这是财报兑现差对合理倍数的增量检验，没有用未来期间最高价训练PE。0M为候选条件公平估计；6M、12M为期限估值，经期间触达标准评价，不等于截止日必然成交价格或已证实DCF内在价值。G18 uses one independent conditional P/E at 0M, 6M and 12M; differences by horizon arise only from the frozen Core EPS paths. It tests whether profit realization adds information about a reasonable multiple and does not train P/E on future window peaks. 0M is a candidate conditional fair estimate; 6M and 12M are horizon valuations assessed by within-window attainment, not guaranteed executable deadline prices or validated DCF intrinsic values.G18在0M、6M、12M使用同一個獨立條件PE，期限差異只來自原凍結Core EPS路徑。這是財報兑現差對合理倍數的增量檢驗，沒有用未來期間最高價訓練PE。0M為候選條件公平估計；6M、12M為期限估值，經期間觸達標準評價，不等於截止日必然成交價格或已證實DCF內在價值。
当前财报兑现差与PE增量分解Current realization gap and P/E increment decomposition當前財報兑現差與PE增量分解
| 项目Item項目 | 当前2026Q2Current 2026Q2當前2026Q2 |
|---|---|
| 实际集团营业利润（十亿美元）Actual group operating income (USD billions)實際集團營業利潤（十億美元） | $40.770 |
| 上一准确财报起点预测营业利润（十亿美元）Prior exact post-earnings forecast operating income (USD billions)上一準確財報起點預測營業利潤（十億美元） | $38.395033 |
| 前预测起点 / 本季披露日Predecessor forecast origin / current release date前預測起點 / 本季披露日 | 2026-04-30 / 2026-07-22 |
| 实际相对模型前预测Actual relative to the prior model forecast實際相對模型前預測 | 6.19% |
| 标准化兑现差 sScaled realization gap s標準化兑現差 s | 0.60018415 |
| G16独立PE → G18条件PEG16 independent P/E → G18 conditional P/EG16獨立PE → G18條件PE | 24.594578× → 24.809041× |
| 完整重拟合PE净变化Net P/E change after complete refit完整重擬合PE淨變化 | 0.87% |
当前实际营业利润比上一模型对该季的预测高6.19%。新增兑现差项相对训练池中心贡献+0.01375075个logPE，对应单项倍数+1.38%；成长项在完整重拟合后相对G16变化−0.00506858个logPE，利率与截距差为零。合计logPE增加0.00868217，PE净升0.87%，不是把全部6.19%兑现差直接加到目标价。Current operating income exceeds the predecessor model forecast by 6.19%. The centered realization term contributes +0.01375075 log-P/E, a standalone multiplier of +1.38%. After the complete refit, the growth term changes by −0.00506858 log-P/E versus G16; rate and intercept differences are zero. The total is +0.00868217 log-P/E, or a net +0.87% P/E change, rather than adding the whole 6.19% realization gap to the target price.當前實際營業利潤比上一模型對該季的預測高6.19%。新增兑現差項相對訓練池中心貢獻+0.01375075個logPE，對應單項倍數+1.38%；成長項在完整重擬合後相對G16變化−0.00506858個logPE，利率與截距差為零。合計logPE增加0.00868217，PE淨升0.87%，不是把全部6.19%兑現差直接加到目標價。
| 相对G16的logPE增量Log-P/E increment versus G16相對G16的logPE增量 | 贡献Contribution貢獻 |
|---|---|
| 截距差Intercept difference截距差 | 0.00000000 |
| 成长项差（重拟合）Growth-term difference (refit)成長項差（重擬合） | -0.00506858 |
| 利率项差Rate-term difference利率項差 | -0.00000000 |
| 新增中心化兑现差项New centered realization term新增中心化兑現差項 | 0.01375075 |
| 合计logPE差Total log-P/E difference合計logPE差 | 0.00868217 |
固定兑现差系数为零的独立对照可复原原G16，属于机制核验，不是第二个可择优候选。分解是相关条件回归的代数归因，不是对市场因果重新评级的识别。当前名义10Y输入5.31%、观察日2026-10-05，而系数为零；本轮不能据此宣称加息或降息导致估值变化。The separate diagnostic with the realization slope fixed to zero reproduces G16. It checks the mechanism and is not a second selectable candidate. This is an algebraic attribution within a correlated conditional regression, not identification of a causal market rerating. The current nominal 10Y input is 5.31% observed on October 5, 2026, while its fitted coefficient is zero; this trial does not establish tightening or easing as a cause of the valuation change.固定兑現差係數為零的獨立對照可復原原G16，屬於機制核驗，不是第二個可擇優候選。分解是相關條件迴歸的代數歸因，不是對市場因果重新評級的識別。當前名義10Y輸入5.31%、觀察日2026-10-05，而係數為零；本輪不能據此宣稱加息或降息導致估值變化。
Alphabet原始季度发布Original Alphabet quarterly releaseAlphabet原始季度發佈 · SEC对应原始披露Corresponding original SEC filingSEC對應原始披露
来源门槛：完整保留原有效训练与20季度Source gate: original valid training pool and all twenty quarters retained來源門檻：完整保留原有效訓練與20季度
23个兑现差季度覆盖2020Q4至2026Q2，覆盖原68个有效训练月、20个固定评价起点和当前起点。最早2020Q4需要的前序2020Q3原始发布和准确起点2020-10-30已经补采至新研究记录。先固定原G16有效池，再要求每行兑现差可用；没有删除缺特征月份后回填更早标签。Twenty-three realization quarters cover 2020Q4 through 2026Q2, providing features for all sixty-eight original valid training months, all twenty fixed evaluation origins and the current origin. The original 2020Q3 predecessor release and exact October 30, 2020 origin needed for the earliest 2020Q4 feature are newly preserved in this study. The original G16 valid pool is fixed first, then every row must have the feature; missing-feature rows are not dropped and backfilled with earlier labels.23個兑現差季度覆蓋2020Q4至2026Q2，覆蓋原68個有效訓練月、20個固定評價起點和當前起點。最早2020Q4需要的前序2020Q3原始發佈和準確起點2020-10-30已經補採至新研究記錄。先固定原G16有效池，再要求每行兑現差可用；沒有刪除缺特徵月份後回填更早標籤。
原11个缺少EPS/股数的月点保持原不可估计。必要兑现差、实际/预测利润正值或严格公开时点缺失，会阻止本候选估计；不补零、不插值、不借附近预测点、不縮短五年面板。每个feature只映射原EPS输入自己的财务季度，不用未来季度财报。The eleven original months lacking EPS/share inputs remain not estimable. Missing required realization data, positive actual/forecast profit or strict publication timing prevents estimation. There is no zero filling, interpolation, nearby-origin substitution or shorter five-year panel. Each feature maps only to the financial quarter used by that original EPS state, never a future quarter.原11個缺少EPS/股數的月點保持原不可估計。必要兑現差、實際/預測利潤正值或嚴格公開時點缺失，會阻止本候選估計；不補零、不插值、不借附近預測點、不縮短五年面板。每個feature只映射原EPS輸入自己的財務季度，不用未來季度財報。
2021-10-27这一早期起点满足历史中位数冷启动条件，三个斜率为零，须单独标记。冷启动不豁免必要来源覆盖；所有原季度都留在正式评分中。重建前预测是在2026年按历史可知资料计算，不能称当年已经发布的模型预测或已认证的实时PIT档案。The early October 27, 2021 origin uses the declared historical-median cold start, with all three slopes at zero, and is flagged. Cold start does not waive required source coverage; every original quarter remains in the formal score. Predecessor forecasts are reconstructed in 2026 from historically available inputs, not forecasts actually published at the time or certified live PIT records.2021-10-27這一早期起點滿足歷史中位數冷啓動條件，三個斜率為零，須單獨標記。冷啓動不豁免必要來源覆蓋；所有原季度都留在正式評分中。重建前預測是在2026年按歷史可知資料計算，不能稱當年已經發布的模型預測或已認證的實時PIT檔案。
五年季度回测：触达率与期间最高价差Five-year quarterly test: hits and gaps to window highs五年季度回測：觸達率與期間最高價差
固定2021Q3至2026Q2的20个财报后起点。6M成熟18、待到期2；12M成熟16、待到期4。G05、G16、G17及G18使用同一组日期；G17只作为失败版本诊断，采用门槛对照仍为G05与G16。Twenty fixed post-earnings origins span 2021Q3 through 2026Q2: eighteen mature and two pending at 6M; sixteen mature and four pending at 12M. G05, G16, G17 and G18 share the same dates. G17 is a rejected-version diagnostic; adoption comparisons remain G05 and G16.固定2021Q3至2026Q2的20個財報後起點。6M成熟18、待到期2；12M成熟16、待到期4。G05、G16、G17及G18使用同一組日期；G17只作為失敗版本診斷，採用門檻對照仍為G05與G16。
预测点固定为每季度财报后的首个完整纽约常规交易日收盘。观察从下一交易日开始，直至6M或12M日历截止日含当日；任意常规时段日内最高价严格高于未舍入目标就算触达，等于不算，截止日后行情不借用。首先比较成熟触达率，再比较全部成熟样本的平均|目标÷完整期间最高价−1|。Each forecast is formed at the first complete New York regular-session close after quarterly earnings. Observation begins on the next session and ends on the 6M or 12M calendar deadline inclusive. Any regular-session high strictly above the unrounded target counts as a hit; equality does not, and later prices are excluded. First compare mature hit rates, then mean |target / complete-window maximum high − 1| across all mature windows.預測點固定為每季度財報後的首個完整紐約常規交易日收盤。觀察從下一交易日開始，直至6M或12M日曆截止日含當日；任意常規時段日內最高價嚴格高於未舍入目標就算觸達，等於不算，截止日後行情不借用。首先比較成熟觸達率，再比較全部成熟樣本的平均|目標÷完整期間最高價−1|。
| 版本Model版本 | 期限Horizon期限 | 成熟触达Mature hits成熟觸達 | 触达率Hit rate觸達率 | 平均绝对峰值差Mean absolute peak gap平均絕對峯值差 | 平均最高价/目标Mean peak/target平均最高價/目標 | 目标低于起点价Targets below origin price目標低於起點價 | 待到期Pending待到期 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G05 | 6M | 16/18 | 88.89% | 15.80% | 119.64% | 0 | 2 |
| G05 | 12M | 13/16 | 81.25% | 26.59% | 132.52% | 3 | 4 |
| G16 | 6M | 14/18 | 77.78% | 24.29% | 123.73% | 9 | 2 |
| G16 | 12M | 13/16 | 81.25% | 34.25% | 134.21% | 4 | 4 |
| G17 · 诊断diagnostic診斷 | 6M | 16/18 | 88.89% | 30.86% | 141.23% | 15 | 2 |
| G17 · 诊断diagnostic診斷 | 12M | 12/16 | 75.00% | 48.13% | 170.78% | 11 | 4 |
| G18 | 6M | 15/18 | 83.33% | 21.39% | 123.31% | 7 | 2 |
| G18 | 12M | 13/16 | 81.25% | 31.08% | 132.63% | 2 | 4 |
G18相对G16改善：6M触达由14/18升至15/18，平均峰值差由24.29%降至21.39%；12M仍为13/16触达，峰值差由34.25%降至31.08%。但G05的6M为16/18、峰值差15.80%，12M峰值差26.59%，仍优于G18。新特征有增量作用，尚不足以替换主预测。G18 improves on G16: 6M hits rise from 14/18 to 15/18 and mean peak gap falls from 24.29% to 21.39%. 12M remains at 13/16 hits, with peak gap falling from 34.25% to 31.08%. G05 still has 16/18 hits and a 15.80% peak gap at 6M, and a 26.59% peak gap at 12M. The new feature has an incremental effect but does not justify replacing the retained forecasts.G18相對G16改善：6M觸達由14/18升至15/18，平均峯值差由24.29%降至21.39%；12M仍為13/16觸達，峯值差由34.25%降至31.08%。但G05的6M為16/18、峯值差15.80%，12M峯值差26.59%，仍優於G18。新特徵有增量作用，尚不足以替換主預測。
待到期窗口只列截至冻结日已观察最高价和触达情况，不称完整最高价，不进入成熟触达率、平均最高价/目标或完整峰值差。低于起点价的目标单列；平均最高价/目标不是越高越好，也不是投资收益率。Pending windows show only the peak and touch observed through the cutoff, not a complete-window maximum. They do not enter mature hit rates, mean peak/target or complete peak gap. Targets below the origin price are flagged. Mean peak/target is not maximized and is not an investment return.待到期窗口只列截至凍結日已觀察最高價和觸達情況，不稱完整最高價，不進入成熟觸達率、平均最高價/目標或完整峯值差。低於起點價的目標單列；平均最高價/目標不是越高越好，也不是投資收益率。
固定G05上涨目标共同样本Fixed common G05 upside-target cohort固定G05上漲目標共同樣本
| 版本Model版本 | 期限Horizon期限 | 成熟触达Mature hits成熟觸達 | 触达率Hit rate觸達率 | 平均绝对峰值差Mean absolute peak gap平均絕對峯值差 | 平均最高价/目标Mean peak/target平均最高價/目標 | 目标低于起点价Targets below origin price目標低於起點價 | 待到期Pending待到期 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G05 | 6M | 16/18 | 88.89% | 15.80% | 119.64% | 0 | 0 |
| G05 | 12M | 10/13 | 76.92% | 24.21% | 126.34% | 0 | 0 |
| G16 | 6M | 14/18 | 77.78% | 24.29% | 123.73% | 9 | 0 |
| G16 | 12M | 10/13 | 76.92% | 32.74% | 126.19% | 1 | 0 |
| G17 · 诊断diagnostic診斷 | 6M | 16/18 | 88.89% | 30.86% | 141.23% | 15 | 0 |
| G17 · 诊断diagnostic診斷 | 12M | 9/13 | 69.23% | 46.26% | 157.47% | 8 | 0 |
| G18 | 6M | 15/18 | 83.33% | 21.39% | 123.31% | 7 | 0 |
| G18 | 12M | 10/13 | 76.92% | 29.63% | 126.18% | 1 | 0 |
集合只由原G05成熟目标不低于起点价决定，6M有18点、12M有13点。各模型共用同一分母；G18自己的较低目标不能改变入选资格。Membership is determined only by mature original G05 targets at least as high as the origin price: eighteen points at 6M and thirteen at 12M. All models share the same denominator; lower G18 targets cannot change eligibility.集合只由原G05成熟目標不低於起點價決定，6M有18點、12M有13點。各模型共用同一分母；G18自己的較低目標不能改變入選資格。
逐季20点：6M与12M目标、最高价和差距All twenty quarterly origins: targets, highs and gaps at 6M and 12M逐季20點：6M與12M目標、最高價和差距
每张表都保留原20个财报后起点。目标在起点只形成一次，最高价来自该次预测的后续窗口；不能在高点出现后改算目标。两位小数只是展示，触达以全精度目标判定。兑现差相对前一准确财报起点对本季的预测；表中PE在同一起点对6M和12M完全相同。Both tables retain all twenty original post-earnings origins. Each target is formed once at its origin; the high comes from the subsequent window for that forecast. Targets are not refitted after the peak occurs. Two decimals are display rounding only; hits use full precision. Realization is measured against the previous exact post-earnings forecast for that quarter, and the P/E is identical for 6M and 12M at each origin.每張表都保留原20個財報後起點。目標在起點只形成一次，最高價來自該次預測的後續窗口；不能在高點出現後改算目標。兩位小數只是展示，觸達以全精度目標判定。兑現差相對前一準確財報起點對本季的預測；表中PE在同一起點對6M和12M完全相同。
6M
| 季度Quarter季度 | 财报后预测点Post-earnings origin財報後預測點 | G18 PE / 兑现差G18 P/E / realizationG18 PE / 兑現差 | G05 6M | G16 6M | G17 6M | G18 6M | 完整最高 / 待期观察最高Complete high / pending observed high完整最高 / 待期觀察最高 | G18状态与触达G18 status and touchG18狀態與觸達 | 绝对峰值差Absolute peak gap絕對峯值差 | 最高价/目标Peak/target最高價/目標 | 目标低于起点价Target below origin price目標低於起點價 | 训练月 / 财务季Training months / vintages訓練月 / 財務季 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | 2021-10-27 | 30.1237× -0.91% | $161.63 | $207.78 | $225.23 | $207.78 | $151.55 2022-02-02 | 成熟 · 未触达Mature · miss成熟 · 未觸達 | 37.10% | 72.94% | 否No否 | 8 / 3 中位数冷启动Median cold start中位數冷啓動 |
| 2021Q4 | 2022-02-02 | 22.2857× -9.99% | $159.76 | $176.29 | $142.70 | $155.07 | $149.68 2022-02-03 | 成熟 · 未触达Mature · miss成熟 · 未觸達 | 3.60% | 96.52% | 否No否 | 12 / 4 |
| 2022Q1 | 2022-04-27 | 21.4602× -10.19% | $121.24 | $166.44 | $138.52 | $149.80 | $122.85 2022-05-04 | 成熟 · 未触达Mature · miss成熟 · 未觸達 | 21.93% | 82.01% | 否No否 | 14 / 5 |
| 2022Q2 | 2022-07-27 | 18.6197× -16.09% | $117.23 | $125.86 | $108.36 | $110.91 | $122.43 2022-08-16 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 9.41% | 110.39% | 是Yes是 | 17 / 6 |
| 2022Q3 | 2022-10-26 | 17.2563× -21.19% | $96.90 | $97.26 | $85.21 | $91.72 | $112.02 2023-03-29 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 18.12% | 122.13% | 是Yes是 | 20 / 7 |
| 2022Q4 | 2023-02-03 | 18.2886× -18.41% | $105.35 | $93.29 | $80.74 | $89.00 | $133.74 2023-07-28 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 33.45% | 150.27% | 是Yes是 | 24 / 8 |
| 2023Q1 | 2023-04-26 | 20.3071× -4.15% | $104.47 | $100.53 | $86.18 | $103.96 | $141.22 2023-10-12 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 26.39% | 135.84% | 否No否 | 26 / 9 |
| 2023Q2 | 2023-07-26 | 23.5045× 20.45% | $131.89 | $109.29 | $91.26 | $130.15 | $153.05 2024-01-25 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 14.96% | 117.59% | 否No否 | 29 / 10 |
| 2023Q3 | 2023-10-25 | 22.8766× 12.06% | $129.15 | $122.24 | $106.21 | $138.44 | $160.22 2024-04-12 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 13.60% | 115.74% | 否No否 | 32 / 11 |
| 2023Q4 | 2024-01-31 | 22.0229× 5.91% | $144.73 | $142.16 | $122.30 | $148.31 | $191.75 2024-07-10 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 22.65% | 129.29% | 否No否 | 35 / 12 |
| 2024Q1 | 2024-04-26 | 23.0140× 15.99% | $178.57 | $156.35 | $135.66 | $171.94 | $191.75 2024-07-10 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 10.33% | 111.52% | 是Yes是 | 38 / 13 |
| 2024Q2 | 2024-07-24 | 22.6583× 10.95% | $179.29 | $170.70 | $145.57 | $178.43 | $202.29 2025-01-21 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 11.80% | 113.37% | 否No否 | 41 / 14 |
| 2024Q3 | 2024-10-30 | 22.3889× 9.74% | $181.71 | $185.86 | $162.09 | $191.71 | $207.05 2025-02-04 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 7.41% | 108.00% | 否No否 | 44 / 15 |
| 2024Q4 | 2025-02-05 | 21.3647× 0.81% | $197.33 | $189.69 | $167.93 | $186.81 | $197.95 2025-07-24 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 5.63% | 105.96% | 是Yes是 | 48 / 16 |
| 2025Q1 | 2025-04-25 | 21.6878× 7.06% | $167.92 | $200.58 | $177.65 | $203.83 | $261.68 2025-10-24 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 22.11% | 128.38% | 否No否 | 50 / 17 |
| 2025Q2 | 2025-07-24 | 20.4660× -0.30% | $199.71 | $208.82 | $188.31 | $204.39 | $340.49 2026-01-13 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 39.97% | 166.59% | 否No否 | 53 / 18 |
| 2025Q3 | 2025-10-30 | 20.3216× -4.86% | $293.73 | $219.22 | $200.80 | $209.96 | $385.84 2026-04-30 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 45.58% | 183.76% | 是Yes是 | 56 / 19 |
| 2025Q4 | 2026-02-05 | 21.8828× -0.19% | $346.71 | $245.07 | $220.01 | $241.31 | $408.61 2026-05-18 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 40.94% | 169.33% | 是Yes是 | 60 / 20 |
| 2026Q1 | 2026-04-30 | 23.2366× 16.39% | $407.08 | $279.57 | $250.62 | $284.92 | $408.61 · 仅观察observed only僅觀察 2026-05-18 | 待到期 · 已观察触达Pending · touch observed待到期 · 已觀察觸達 | — | — | 是Yes是 | 60 / 20 |
| 2026Q2 | 2026-07-23 | 23.7548× 6.19% | $338.82 | $318.60 | $280.72 | $318.88 | $384.48 · 仅观察observed only僅觀察 2026-08-05 | 待到期 · 已观察触达Pending · touch observed待到期 · 已觀察觸達 | — | — | 否No否 | 60 / 20 |
12M
| 季度Quarter季度 | 财报后预测点Post-earnings origin財報後預測點 | G18 PE / 兑现差G18 P/E / realizationG18 PE / 兑現差 | G05 12M | G16 12M | G17 12M | G18 12M | 完整最高 / 待期观察最高Complete high / pending observed high完整最高 / 待期觀察最高 | G18状态与触达G18 status and touchG18狀態與觸達 | 绝对峰值差Absolute peak gap絕對峯值差 | 最高价/目标Peak/target最高價/目標 | 目标低于起点价Target below origin price目標低於起點價 | 训练月 / 财务季Training months / vintages訓練月 / 財務季 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | 2021-10-27 | 30.1237× -0.91% | $185.53 | $243.12 | $243.12 | $243.12 | $151.55 2022-02-02 | 成熟 · 未触达Mature · miss成熟 · 未觸達 | 60.43% | 62.33% | 否No否 | 8 / 3 中位数冷启动Median cold start中位數冷啓動 |
| 2021Q4 | 2022-02-02 | 22.2857× -9.99% | $179.41 | $201.30 | $201.30 | $177.07 | $149.68 2022-02-03 | 成熟 · 未触达Mature · miss成熟 · 未觸達 | 18.30% | 84.53% | 否No否 | 12 / 4 |
| 2022Q1 | 2022-04-27 | 21.4602× -10.19% | $148.73 | $183.62 | $196.52 | $165.27 | $122.85 2022-05-04 | 成熟 · 未触达Mature · miss成熟 · 未觸達 | 34.52% | 74.34% | 否No否 | 14 / 5 |
| 2022Q2 | 2022-07-27 | 18.6197× -16.09% | $132.20 | $133.04 | $151.39 | $117.24 | $133.24 2023-07-27 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 12.01% | 113.65% | 否No否 | 17 / 6 |
| 2022Q3 | 2022-10-26 | 17.2563× -21.19% | $101.04 | $99.88 | $70.71 | $94.20 | $141.22 2023-10-12 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 33.30% | 149.92% | 是Yes是 | 20 / 7 |
| 2022Q4 | 2023-02-03 | 18.2886× -18.41% | $101.85 | $93.71 | $66.06 | $89.40 | $153.78 2024-01-29 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 41.87% | 172.01% | 是Yes是 | 24 / 8 |
| 2023Q1 | 2023-04-26 | 20.3071× -4.15% | $99.11 | $101.47 | $76.88 | $104.93 | $174.71 2024-04-26 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 39.94% | 166.51% | 否No否 | 26 / 9 |
| 2023Q2 | 2023-07-26 | 23.5045× 20.45% | $127.24 | $112.43 | $85.09 | $133.89 | $191.75 2024-07-10 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 30.17% | 143.21% | 否No否 | 29 / 10 |
| 2023Q3 | 2023-10-25 | 22.8766× 12.06% | $130.01 | $128.23 | $94.63 | $145.22 | $191.75 2024-07-10 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 24.26% | 132.04% | 否No否 | 32 / 11 |
| 2023Q4 | 2024-01-31 | 22.0229× 5.91% | $152.24 | $150.87 | $111.87 | $157.40 | $205.48 2025-01-31 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 23.40% | 130.54% | 否No否 | 35 / 12 |
| 2024Q1 | 2024-04-26 | 23.0140× 15.99% | $195.11 | $166.23 | $123.51 | $182.80 | $207.05 2025-02-04 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 11.71% | 113.27% | 否No否 | 38 / 13 |
| 2024Q2 | 2024-07-24 | 22.6583× 10.95% | $201.36 | $180.83 | $134.60 | $189.02 | $207.05 2025-02-04 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 8.71% | 109.54% | 否No否 | 41 / 14 |
| 2024Q3 | 2024-10-30 | 22.3889× 9.74% | $206.40 | $198.26 | $151.45 | $204.49 | $291.59 2025-10-30 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 29.87% | 142.59% | 否No否 | 44 / 15 |
| 2024Q4 | 2025-02-05 | 21.3647× 0.81% | $225.16 | $199.83 | $157.38 | $196.81 | $349.00 2026-02-03 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 43.61% | 177.33% | 否No否 | 48 / 16 |
| 2025Q1 | 2025-04-25 | 21.6878× 7.06% | $191.12 | $212.41 | $168.41 | $215.86 | $349.00 2026-02-03 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 38.15% | 161.68% | 否No否 | 50 / 17 |
| 2025Q2 | 2025-07-24 | 20.4660× -0.30% | $222.23 | $221.37 | $176.97 | $216.68 | $408.61 2026-05-18 | 成熟 · 触达Mature · hit成熟 · 觸達 | 46.97% | 188.58% | 否No否 | 53 / 18 |
| 2025Q3 | 2025-10-30 | 20.3216× -4.86% | $331.96 | $234.67 | $188.42 | $224.77 | $408.61 · 仅观察observed only僅觀察 2026-05-18 | 待到期 · 已观察触达Pending · touch observed待到期 · 已觀察觸達 | — | — | 是Yes是 | 56 / 19 |
| 2025Q4 | 2026-02-05 | 21.8828× -0.19% | $409.73 | $264.89 | $207.82 | $260.82 | $408.61 · 仅观察observed only僅觀察 2026-05-18 | 待到期 · 已观察触达Pending · touch observed待到期 · 已觀察觸達 | — | — | 是Yes是 | 60 / 20 |
| 2026Q1 | 2026-04-30 | 23.2366× 16.39% | $495.88 | $307.07 | $241.82 | $312.95 | $408.61 · 仅观察observed only僅觀察 2026-05-18 | 待到期 · 已观察触达Pending · touch observed待到期 · 已觀察觸達 | — | — | 是Yes是 | 60 / 20 |
| 2026Q2 | 2026-07-23 | 23.7548× 6.19% | $423.88 | $352.44 | $288.01 | $352.75 | $384.48 · 仅观察observed only僅觀察 2026-08-05 | 待到期 · 已观察触达Pending · touch observed待到期 · 已觀察觸達 | — | — | 否No否 | 60 / 20 |
待到期窗口只列截至冻结日已观察最高价和触达情况，不称完整最高价，不进入成熟触达率、平均最高价/目标或完整峰值差。低于起点价的目标单列；平均最高价/目标不是越高越好，也不是投资收益率。Pending windows show only the peak and touch observed through the cutoff, not a complete-window maximum. They do not enter mature hit rates, mean peak/target or complete peak gap. Targets below the origin price are flagged. Mean peak/target is not maximized and is not an investment return.待到期窗口只列截至凍結日已觀察最高價和觸達情況，不稱完整最高價，不進入成熟觸達率、平均最高價/目標或完整峯值差。低於起點價的目標單列；平均最高價/目標不是越高越好，也不是投資收益率。
近三年辅助诊断Three-year diagnostic近三年輔助診斷
原近三年有12个季度，6M成熟10、12M成熟8。四模型全部成熟目标均曾触达；G18峰值差分别22.00%和28.34%，小于G16而仍高于G05的19.09%和27.77%。这组100%历史触达不能解释为未来概率，亦不能替换五年正式筛选。The original three-year panel contains twelve quarters, with ten mature 6M and eight mature 12M windows. All four models attain every mature target. G18 peak gaps are 22.00% and 28.34%, lower than G16 but still above G05’s 19.09% and 27.77%. The 100% historical hit rates are not future probabilities and do not replace the formal five-year screen.原近三年有12個季度，6M成熟10、12M成熟8。四模型全部成熟目標均曾觸達；G18峯值差分別22.00%和28.34%，小於G16而仍高於G05的19.09%和27.77%。這組100%歷史觸達不能解釋為未來概率，亦不能替換五年正式篩選。
| 版本Model版本 | 期限Horizon期限 | 成熟触达Mature hits成熟觸達 | 触达率Hit rate觸達率 | 平均绝对峰值差Mean absolute peak gap平均絕對峯值差 | 平均最高价/目标Mean peak/target平均最高價/目標 | 目标低于起点价Targets below origin price目標低於起點價 | 待到期Pending待到期 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G05 | 6M | 10/10 | 100.00% | 19.09% | 126.66% | 0 | 2 |
| G05 | 12M | 8/8 | 100.00% | 27.77% | 144.27% | 0 | 4 |
| G16 | 6M | 10/10 | 100.00% | 24.33% | 135.91% | 6 | 2 |
| G16 | 12M | 8/8 | 100.00% | 31.47% | 149.42% | 1 | 4 |
| G17 · 诊断diagnostic診斷 | 6M | 10/10 | 100.00% | 33.50% | 153.96% | 9 | 2 |
| G17 · 诊断diagnostic診斷 | 12M | 8/8 | 100.00% | 47.87% | 195.02% | 7 | 4 |
| G18 | 6M | 10/10 | 100.00% | 22.00% | 133.19% | 4 | 2 |
| G18 | 12M | 8/8 | 100.00% | 28.34% | 144.45% | 0 | 4 |
分析师同日12M比较：仅2/12观察Same-day analyst 12M comparison: only two of twelve observations分析師同日12M比較：僅2/12觀察
三年12个财报后季度点只有2条保存的精确同日StockAnalysis平均12M目标、10条缺失。G18在这两条上的平均绝对共识目标差为2.26%，比G05的3.40%小；覆盖不足，不能据此宣称完整三年分析师验证、未来价格更准或替换模型。Only two of twelve three-year post-earnings origins have saved exact same-day StockAnalysis mean 12M targets; ten are missing. G18’s mean absolute consensus-target gap on these two records is 2.26%, smaller than G05’s 3.40%. That limited coverage cannot establish complete three-year analyst validation, better future-price accuracy or model replacement.三年12個財報後季度點只有2條保存的精確同日StockAnalysis平均12M目標、10條缺失。G18在這兩條上的平均絕對共識目標差為2.26%，比G05的3.40%小；覆蓋不足，不能據此宣稱完整三年分析師驗證、未來價格更準或替換模型。
| 记录 / 诊断Coverage / diagnostic記錄 / 診斷 | G05 | G16 | G17 | G18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 精确同日观察 / 应有季度Exact same-day observations / required quarters精確同日觀察 / 應有季度 | 2 / 12 | 2 / 12 | 2 / 12 | 2 / 12 |
| 两条观察的平均绝对目标差Mean absolute target gap on two observations兩條觀察的平均絕對目標差 | 3.40% | 5.78% | 29.06% | 2.26% |
分析师数据只作同日12M诊断，不进入预测、拟合、参数选择或采用条件；不取邻日、不插值、不借未来观察。商业原始逐日记录保留内部，公开页面仅列覆盖与聚合比较。Analyst data is used only for same-day 12M diagnostics, not prediction, fitting, parameter selection or adoption. There are no nearby-date substitutions, interpolation or future observations. Commercial raw daily records remain internal; only coverage and aggregate comparisons are public.分析師數據只作同日12M診斷，不進入預測、擬合、參數選擇或採用條件；不取鄰日、不插值、不借未來觀察。商業原始逐日記錄保留內部，公開頁面僅列覆蓋與聚合比較。
采用结论：保留现有两个研究模块Decision: retain the existing separate research modules採用結論：保留現有兩個研究模塊
G18的18项替换条件中，11项通过、7项失败。个股页继续分别显示G16的0M条件公平估计$318.51与G05的6M $368.45、12M $464.42主预测；不同模块标注各自版本，不组合成一套新模型。Of G18’s eighteen replacement conditions, eleven pass and seven fail. The equity page continues to display G16’s separate conditional 0M estimate of $318.51 and G05’s retained 6M / 12M forecasts of $368.45 / $464.42. The modules retain their own version labels and do not form a combined new model.G18的18項替換條件中，11項通過、7項失敗。個股頁繼續分別顯示G16的0M條件公平估計$318.51與G05的6M $368.45、12M $464.42主預測；不同模塊標註各自版本，不組合成一套新模型。
独立工程核验通过；替换门槛仍未通过。Independent engineering checks passed; replacement gates still failed.獨立工程核驗通過；替換門檻仍未通過。
18项冻结数值条件要求两个期限在全成熟样本及固定共同G05上涨目标样本中，触达与峰值差都不劣于G05和G16，并相对每个参考至少有一项全样本严格改善。相对G16的9项全部通过；相对G05仅2项通过、7项失败，因此候选未采用。Eighteen frozen numerical conditions require nonworse touch and peak gap versus both G05 and G16, at both horizons in the full mature panel and fixed common G05 upside cohort, plus at least one strict full-panel improvement against each reference. All nine G16 comparisons pass; only two G05 conditions pass and seven fail, so the candidate is not adopted.18項凍結數值條件要求兩個期限在全成熟樣本及固定共同G05上漲目標樣本中，觸達與峯值差都不劣於G05和G16，並相對每個參考至少有一項全樣本嚴格改善。相對G16的9項全部通過；相對G05僅2項通過、7項失敗，因此候選未採用。
展开全部18项冻结条件Show all eighteen frozen conditions展開全部18項凍結條件
| 条件Condition條件 | 结果Result結果 |
|---|---|
| 6M 全样本：触达率不劣于G056M full panel: hit rate nonworse than G056M 全樣本：觸達率不劣於G05 | 失败Fail失敗 |
| 6M 全样本：峰值差不劣于G056M full panel: peak gap nonworse than G056M 全樣本：峯值差不劣於G05 | 失败Fail失敗 |
| 6M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：触达率不劣于G056M fixed common G05 upside cohort: hit rate nonworse than G056M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：觸達率不劣於G05 | 失败Fail失敗 |
| 6M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：峰值差不劣于G056M fixed common G05 upside cohort: peak gap nonworse than G056M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：峯值差不劣於G05 | 失败Fail失敗 |
| 12M 全样本：触达率不劣于G0512M full panel: hit rate nonworse than G0512M 全樣本：觸達率不劣於G05 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 12M 全样本：峰值差不劣于G0512M full panel: peak gap nonworse than G0512M 全樣本：峯值差不劣於G05 | 失败Fail失敗 |
| 12M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：触达率不劣于G0512M fixed common G05 upside cohort: hit rate nonworse than G0512M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：觸達率不劣於G05 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 12M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：峰值差不劣于G0512M fixed common G05 upside cohort: peak gap nonworse than G0512M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：峯值差不劣於G05 | 失败Fail失敗 |
| 相对G05至少一项全样本严格改善At least one strict full-panel improvement versus G05相對G05至少一項全樣本嚴格改善 | 失败Fail失敗 |
| 6M 全样本：触达率不劣于G166M full panel: hit rate nonworse than G166M 全樣本：觸達率不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 6M 全样本：峰值差不劣于G166M full panel: peak gap nonworse than G166M 全樣本：峯值差不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 6M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：触达率不劣于G166M fixed common G05 upside cohort: hit rate nonworse than G166M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：觸達率不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 6M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：峰值差不劣于G166M fixed common G05 upside cohort: peak gap nonworse than G166M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：峯值差不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 12M 全样本：触达率不劣于G1612M full panel: hit rate nonworse than G1612M 全樣本：觸達率不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 12M 全样本：峰值差不劣于G1612M full panel: peak gap nonworse than G1612M 全樣本：峯值差不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 12M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：触达率不劣于G1612M fixed common G05 upside cohort: hit rate nonworse than G1612M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：觸達率不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 12M 固定G05上涨目标共同样本：峰值差不劣于G1612M fixed common G05 upside cohort: peak gap nonworse than G1612M 固定G05上漲目標共同樣本：峯值差不劣於G16 | 通过Pass通過 |
| 相对G16至少一项全样本严格改善At least one strict full-panel improvement versus G16相對G16至少一項全樣本嚴格改善 | 通过Pass通過 |
工程通过说明算术、数据一致性和时间边界通过核验，不是预测准确率、历史PIT或独立OOS证明。不能把未采用G18的一期价格或兑现差系数单独拼入保留主模型。Engineering passage verifies arithmetic, data consistency and timing boundaries; it is not proof of forecast accuracy, historical PIT or independent OOS performance. A price or realization coefficient from the rejected G18 candidate cannot be silently spliced into retained forecasts.工程通過説明算術、數據一致性和時間邊界通過核驗，不是預測準確率、歷史PIT或獨立OOS證明。不能把未採用G18的一期價格或兑現差係數單獨拼入保留主模型。
研究意义、边界和后续问题What the result means, limits and follow-up questions研究意義、邊界和後續問題
这次在固定EPS下，财报兑现差确实改变了部分PE和目标：相对G16更接近期间高点、6M多触达一个季度，同时低于起点价的成熟目标由6M 9个降至7个、12M 4个降至2个。它改善了独立PE基础，但仍没有解决G05未来预测更好的差距。应保留本版本与失败结论，再研究兑现差能否持续，而非在本版本看到结果后调整ridge或补价格锚。With EPS fixed, realization changes some multiples and targets: versus G16, it moves closer to window highs and adds one 6M hit, while below-origin mature targets fall from nine to seven at 6M and from four to two at 12M. It improves the independent-P/E foundation but still does not close the gap to G05 future forecasts. Preserve this version and its rejection, then investigate persistence in a new protocol rather than adjusting ridge or adding a price anchor after seeing these results.這次在固定EPS下，財報兑現差確實改變了部分PE和目標：相對G16更接近期間高點、6M多觸達一個季度，同時低於起點價的成熟目標由6M 9個降至7個、12M 4個降至2個。它改善了獨立PE基礎，但仍沒有解決G05未來預測更好的差距。應保留本版本與失敗結論，再研究兑現差能否持續，而非在本版本看到結果後調整ridge或補價格錨。
月末训练标签和季度评价窗口重叠；同一财报对应多个训练月，不等于多个独立财报。过去研究已反复检查这五年，预测重建不是当年实际发布记录。当前的历史回溯和工程审计不能给出独立前瞻OOS、正式Champion或DCF公平价认证。Monthly training labels and quarterly evaluation windows overlap. Several months sharing one financial release are not independent earnings observations. The same five years have already been inspected repeatedly, and reconstructed forecasts were not published at those historical dates. This retrospective study and engineering audit do not establish independent prospective OOS, formal Champion status or DCF fair-value certification.月末訓練標籤和季度評價窗口重疊；同一財報對應多個訓練月，不等於多個獨立財報。過去研究已反覆檢查這五年，預測重建不是當年實際發佈記錄。當前的歷史回溯和工程審計不能給出獨立前瞻OOS、正式Champion或DCF公平價認證。
Google完整版本与理论Complete Google versions and theoryGoogle完整版本與理論 · G16独立PE基础G16 independent P/E foundationG16獨立PE基礎 · G17期限触达试验G17 attainable-window trialG17期限觸達試驗 · 当前保留个股研究参考Current retained equity research references當前保留個股研究參考