MSFT / M03 / MODEL RESEARCH
Microsoft M03：稳健收入增长与十年季度验证Microsoft M03: robust revenue growth and ten-year quarterly evaluationMicrosoft M03：穩健收入增長與十年季度驗證
返回完整研究演进Back to model evolution返回完整研究演進 · 返回MSFT个股模型值Back to MSFT equity model values返回MSFT個股模型值
研究假设与四季中位数公式Research hypothesis and four-quarter median equations研究假設與四季中位數公式
M00以最近单季同比增长为锚。M03用最近四个已披露季度的同季日均收入同比log增长中位数，测试是否减轻单季噪声。偶数中位数为排序后中间两项平均；没有事后选择其它窗口。M00 anchors on the latest single-quarter YoY growth. M03 uses the median of four recent disclosed quarters’ same-quarter daily-revenue YoY log growth, testing whether it reduces single-quarter noise. The even median averages the two central sorted values; other windows were not selected after results.M00以最近單季同比增長為錨。M03用最近四個已披露季度的同季日均收入同比log增長中位數，測試是否減輕單季噪聲。偶數中位數為排序後中間兩項平均；沒有事後選擇其它窗口。
G = median{ln[(Revenue_i/Days_i)/(Revenue_(i−4)/Days_(i−4))]}, last4 knownquarters
DailyRevenue_1 = DailyRevenue_priorYearSameNextQuarter × exp(G)
g0 = G/4
DailyRevenue_j = DailyRevenue_(j−1) × exp(Season_j−Season_(j−1)+g0×2^(-(j−1)/4))
CoreEPS_j = ForecastRevenue_j × heldTTMmargin ×0.85 / heldLatestShares
PE0 = P0 / M03CoreEPS0; Price_h = M03CoreEPS_h × PE0季节性、利润率、股数、税率及固定同口径PE保持M00逻辑；不继承M01的失败成本股数机制或M02的PE回归。四季平滑会落后于真实增长加速，原始预测与失败版本完整保存。Seasonality, margin, shares, tax and held same-basis P/E retain M00 rules. M03 does not inherit M01’s rejected cost/share mechanism or M02’s P/E reversion. Four-quarter smoothing can lag actual growth acceleration; original forecasts and the rejected version are preserved.季節性、利潤率、股數、税率及固定同口徑PE保持M00邏輯；不繼承M01的失敗成本股數機制或M02的PE迴歸。四季平滑會落後於真實增長加速，原始預測與失敗版本完整保存。
十年40个财报起点：触达与误差分开Forty earnings origins over ten years: separate touch and error十年40個財報起點：觸達與誤差分開
固定FY2017Q1–FY2026Q4的40次财报后首个完整交易日收盘。6M成熟38、待到期2；12M成熟36、待到期4。完整预计交易日集合核验后才计算峰值，未到期窗口不使用局部最高价充当结果。The panel fixes 40 first complete post-earnings session closes from FY2017Q1 through FY2026Q4. At 6M,38 have matured and 2 are pending; at 12M,36 have matured and 4 are pending. Peaks require complete expected-session coverage; partial-window highs do not replace pending results.固定FY2017Q1–FY2026Q4的40次財報後首個完整交易日收盤。6M成熟38、待到期2；12M成熟36、待到期4。完整預計交易日集合核驗後才計算峯值，未到期窗口不使用局部最高價充當結果。
| 期限Horizon期限 | 模型Model模型 | 已到期NMatured N已到期N | 严格超过目标次数Strict exceedances嚴格超過目標次數 | 超目标比例Exceedance rate超目標比例 | 平均最高价差Mean signed peak gap平均最高價差 | 到期收盘MAPETerminal-close MAPE到期收盤MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M | M00 | 38 | 34/38 | 89.47% | +15.06% | 14.24% |
| 6M | M03 | 38 | 35/38 | 92.11% | +15.55% | 14.21% |
| 6M | 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 38 | 38/38 | 100.00% | +19.55% | 14.67% |
| 12M | M00 | 36 | 32/36 | 88.89% | +28.94% | 20.28% |
| 12M | M03 | 36 | 32/36 | 88.89% | +29.87% | 20.80% |
| 12M | 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 36 | 36/36 | 100.00% | +37.43% | 22.42% |
Strict exceeded: maxHigh > target Mean signed peak gap = mean[100 × (maxHigh − target) / target] Peak window: origin < regular-session date ≤ calendar target date Terminal close: first session on or after calendar target date
超目标比例衡量期限内最高价是否严格高于目标；平均最高价差包含未超过目标的负值。降低目标会机械提高两项指标，不能据此宣称估值更准确。Peak exceedance asks whether the within-horizon intraday high strictly exceeded the target. The mean signed peak gap includes negative values. Lower targets mechanically improve these measures; they do not establish more accurate valuations.超目標比例衡量期限內最高價是否嚴格高於目標；平均最高價差包含未超過目標的負值。降低目標會機械提高兩項指標，不能據此宣稱估值更準確。
M03的6M多达标1次来自较低目标，12M次数没有改变。十年40个目标的平均上涨幅度，M03为6M3.58%、12M6.22%，M00为4.05%、7.05%。M03的12M终点误差变大，未替换M00；不能把超目标比例称为估值准确率。M03’s one additional 6M exceedance came from a lower target;12M exceedances were unchanged. Across 40 forecasts, average upside was 3.58%/6.22% for M03 versus 4.05%/7.05% for M00 at 6M/12M. M03 increased 12M terminal error and did not replace M00. Exceedance rates are not valuation accuracy.M03的6M多達標1次來自較低目標，12M次數沒有改變。十年40個目標的平均上漲幅度，M03為6M3.58%、12M6.22%，M00為4.05%、7.05%。M03的12M終點誤差變大，未替換M00；不能把超目標比例稱為估值準確率。
查看M03研究方法、样本与失败原因 →Read M03 methods, samples and rejection reasons →查看M03研究方法、樣本與失敗原因 →三年季度分析师比较：同日、同期限、同终点Three-year analyst comparison: same date, horizon and endpoint三年季度分析師比較：同日、同期限、同終點
12个季度同日12M目标均已取得，其中8个到期、4个待到期。同日目标差是意见距离；实际误差只比较相同起点和相同到期价格。样本少且窗口重叠，未证明独立样本外优势。All 12 quarterly same-date 12M benchmarks were recorded;8 have matured and 4 remain pending. Same-date target gaps measure disagreement. Actual-price errors use identical origins and terminal dates. The small overlapping sample does not establish independent out-of-sample superiority.12個季度同日12M目標均已取得，其中8個到期、4個待到期。同日目標差是意見距離；實際誤差只比較相同起點和相同到期價格。樣本少且窗口重疊，未證明獨立樣本外優勢。
| 模型 / 对照Model / reference模型 / 對照 | 到期收盘MAPETerminal-close MAPE到期收盤MAPE | 严格超过目标Strict exceedances嚴格超過目標 | 超目标比例Exceedance rate超目標比例 | 平均最高价差Mean signed peak gap平均最高價差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M00 | 12.34% | 7/8 | 87.50% | +17.69% |
| M03 | 12.11% | 7/8 | 87.50% | +18.46% |
| 分析师平均目标Mean analyst target分析師平均目標 | 14.19% | 6/8 | 75.00% | +6.76% |
| 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 11.58% | 8/8 | 100.00% | +26.03% |
全部12个季度中，M03的12M目标相对同日分析师均价平均有符号差为-11.84%，平均绝对差11.84%。这衡量目标意见距离，不是未来真实价格误差。分析师12M没有用于6M评分或训练。Across all 12 quarters, M03’s mean signed 12M target gap to same-date analysts is-11.84%, with mean absolute gap 11.84%. This measures target disagreement, not future actual-price error. Analyst 12M targets were not used for 6M scores or training.全部12個季度中，M03的12M目標相對同日分析師均價平均有符號差為-11.84%，平均絕對差11.84%。這衡量目標意見距離，不是未來真實價格誤差。分析師12M沒有用於6M評分或訓練。
三年6M已到期10个，M03终点MAPE14.11%、M00为14.00%、价格不变13.08%。三年12M仅8个成熟季度且窗口重叠；虽然M03平均误差小于分析师，也不能证明独立预测优势。Three-year 6M has 10 mature origins, with terminal MAPE14.11% for M03,14.00% for M00 and 13.08% for unchanged price. Three-year 12M has only 8 mature overlapping quarterly windows; lower mean error than analysts does not establish independent predictive superiority.三年6M已到期10個，M03終點MAPE14.11%、M00為14.00%、價格不變13.08%。三年12M僅8個成熟季度且窗口重疊；雖然M03平均誤差小於分析師，也不能證明獨立預測優勢。
计算通过，模型有效性仍待验证Arithmetic passed; model validity remains unproved計算通過，模型有效性仍待驗證
独立复核确认计算、日期和来源约束一致；这不等于采用筛选通过。历史资料按已公开日期重建，Q4股数与日分配标签含近似，PIT原始版本、独立样本外和前瞻有效性尚未证明。Independent review confirmed arithmetic, dates and source-availability constraints. This is distinct from passing adoption screens. Historical inputs are reconstructed by public dates, with Q4-share and daily-allocation approximations. Original immutable PIT vintages, independent out-of-sample results and prospective validity remain unproved.獨立複核確認計算、日期和來源約束一致；這不等於採用篩選通過。歷史資料按已公開日期重建，Q4股數與日分配標籤含近似，PIT原始版本、獨立樣本外和前瞻有效性尚未證明。
原预测和失败版本均保留。当前M00是条件研究参照，并非正式已验证模型。M03完整CoreEPS窗口0M/6M/12M分别35/33/31个，三个期限对数误差都比M00大；峰值评分并没有证明盈利预测改善。Original forecasts and rejected versions are preserved. M00 is a conditional research reference, not a validated production model. M03 has 35/33/31 complete Core EPS windows at 0M/6M/12M; all three log-error panels worsened versus M00. Peak scores did not validate better earnings forecasts.原預測和失敗版本均保留。當前M00是條件研究參照，並非正式已驗證模型。M03完整CoreEPS窗口0M/6M/12M分別35/33/31個，三個期限對數誤差都比M00大；峯值評分並沒有證明盈利預測改善。
本页只展示自身模型预测、原创方法与聚合对照结论。商业原始逐日分析师数据、逐季度精确目标记录和供应商原图线保留内部。This page publishes own forecasts, original methods and aggregate comparative conclusions. Commercial daily analyst records, exact per-quarter vendor targets and original vendor charts remain internal.本頁只展示自身模型預測、原創方法與聚合對照結論。商業原始逐日分析師數據、逐季度精確目標記錄和供應商原圖線保留內部。
微软财报来源Microsoft issuer earnings微軟財報來源 · SEC原始申报SEC original filingsSEC原始申報 · 分析师数据来源Analyst data source分析師數據來源
M03未进入MSFT个股研究页的当前主价格。当前主表仍为M00：0M $522.61、6M $546.02、12M $562.14，2026-10-08截面。M03 does not populate the current main equity-research prices. M00 remains 0M $522.61,6M $546.02 and 12M $562.14 at the October 8, 2026 cutoff.M03未進入MSFT個股研究頁的當前主價格。當前主表仍為M00：0M $522.61、6M $546.02、12M $562.14，2026-10-08截面。