NVDA / H09 + FAIR0 / 2026-10-12
H09恢复：独立当前公允价值与原未来目标H09 restored: independent current fair value and original future targetsH09恢復：獨立當前公允價值與原未來目標
研究记录2026-10-12，输入及实际完整市场收盘为2026-10-09。最新财报FY2027Q2，期末2026-07-26，发布2026-08-26，模型可得日2026-08-27。国债观察2026-10-08；历史评分冻结至2026-10-06。Research record 2026-10-12; inputs and the completed market close are dated 2026-10-09. Latest financials: FY2027Q2, ended 2026-07-26, released 2026-08-26, model-available 2026-08-27. Treasury observation 2026-10-08; historical scores remain frozen through 2026-10-06.研究記錄2026-10-12，輸入及實際完整市場收盤為2026-10-09。最新財報FY2027Q2，期末2026-07-26，發佈2026-08-26，模型可得日2026-08-27。國債觀察2026-10-08；歷史評分凍結至2026-10-06。
恢复原NVDA H09盈利路径与6M、12M价格预测，另计算当前0M条件公允价值。三个期限的EPS不变；0M与未来两期分别使用独立公允PE和原市场PE，逐行注明依据。本轮未采用A02成本移植，也未将新0M PE套到未来目标价。Restore original NVDA H09 earnings and 6M/12M price forecasts, with a separately calculated current conditional fair value. EPS is unchanged at all horizons. 0M uses independent fair PE; future horizons use original market PE, disclosed by row. The study does not use A02 cost extrapolation or apply the new 0M PE to future price targets.恢復原NVDA H09盈利路徑與6M、12M價格預測，另計算當前0M條件公允價值。三個期限的EPS不變；0M與未來兩期分別使用獨立公允PE和原市場PE，逐行註明依據。本輪未採用A02成本移植，也未將新0M PE套到未來目標價。
| 期限Horizon期限 | 目标日 → 盈利窗口末日Target → earnings-window end目標日 → 盈利窗口末日 | Core EPS | Core PE | 计算 USD/股Calculated USD/share計算 USD/股 | 该期限模型与倍数依据Horizon model and multiple basis該期限模型與倍數依據 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0M | 2026-10-09 → 2027-10-09 | 13.91282 | 18.85852× | $262.38 | H09-FAIR0 · 独立现金流公允PEH09-FAIR0 · independent cash-flow fair PEH09-FAIR0 · 獨立現金流公允PE |
| 6M | 2027-04-09 → 2028-04-09 | 16.67171 | 16.47977× | $274.75 | H09 v0.1 · 原市场Core PE不变H09 v0.1 · original market Core PE heldH09 v0.1 · 原市場Core PE不變 |
| 12M | 2027-10-09 → 2028-10-09 | 18.94079 | 16.47977× | $312.14 | H09 v0.1 · 原市场Core PE不变H09 v0.1 · original market Core PE heldH09 v0.1 · 原市場Core PE不變 |
NVDA个股研究当前模型Current NVDA equity modelNVDA個股研究當前模型 · H09原方法与研究Original H09 method and studyH09原方法與研究 · A02-PE01失败版本档案Failed A02-PE01 version archiveA02-PE01失敗版本檔案 · H13资本现金桥档案H13 capital-cash bridge archiveH13資本現金橋檔案
保留H09经营模型Retain H09 operating forecasts保留H09經營模型
首季度仍使用当时可得收入、GAAP毛利率、营业费用指引及原历史偏差修正。收入动量锚为下一指导季度与上一财年同季度的日均收入比log/4，使用精确财政年/季与真实季度天数。第二季起叠加历史季节性，按四季半衰期衰减增长，后续营业费用保留TTM费用率。没有重新用A02日均成本增长预测利润。The first quarter retains then-available revenue, GAAP gross-margin and operating-expense guidance with original historical bias adjustments. Revenue momentum is log of next guided daily revenue / prior-year same-fiscal-quarter daily revenue, divided by four, using exact fiscal-year/quarter keys and actual day counts. From the second quarter, historical seasonality and a four-quarter growth half-life apply; later operating expenses retain TTM expense ratios. A02 daily-cost growth no longer determines profit.首季度仍使用當時可得收入、GAAP毛利率、營業費用指引及原歷史偏差修正。收入動量錨為下一指導季度與上一財年同季度的日均收入比log/4，使用精確財政年/季與真實季度天數。第二季起疊加歷史季節性，按四季半衰期衰減增長，後續營業費用保留TTM費用率。沒有重新用A02日均成本增長預測利潤。
| 环节Step環節 | 计算Calculation計算 |
|---|---|
| 经营盈利Operating earnings經營盈利 | OP = Revenue × GAAP gross margin − operating expenses; NOPAT = OP × 85% |
| 目标日盈利窗口Target-date earnings window目標日盈利窗口 | Core EPS_h = NOPAT in [target_h, target_h + 12M) / H09 reported diluted shares |
| 新增0M研究New 0M research新增0M研究 | FV0 = (PV operating economic CF + terminal PV + modeled economic cash + investments − senior debt) / H09 shares |
| 当前公允倍数Current fair multiple當前公允倍數 | Fair Core PE0 = FV0 / H09 Core EPS0 |
| 原H09未来预测Original H09 future forecasts原H09未來預測 | Market Core PE0 = P0 / H09 Core EPS0; Price_h = H09 Core EPS_h × Market Core PE0; h ∈ {6M,12M} |
本轮股数分母24.285十亿，EPS与独立股权估值统一。H13原股数代理到H09的倍率1.00371978只做口径适配，不是估值优化参数，也未根据回测选取。Core EPS为税后经营盈利，不等于GAAP股东净利润EPS或供应商调整后EPS。The common share denominator is 24.285 billion for EPS and independent equity valuation. The 1.00371978 conversion from original H13 share proxy to H09 shares is accounting-basis alignment only, not an optimization parameter or a backtest-selected value. Core EPS is after-tax operating earnings, not GAAP shareholder net-income EPS or vendor-adjusted EPS.本輪股數分母24.285十億，EPS與獨立股權估值統一。H13原股數代理到H09的倍率1.00371978只做口徑適配，不是估值優化參數，也未根據回測選取。Core EPS為税後經營盈利，不等於GAAP股東淨利潤EPS或供應商調整後EPS。
0M独立公允价值的冻结假设Frozen assumptions for independent 0M fair value0M獨立公允價值的凍結假設
| 参数Parameter參數 | 值Value值 | 依据与限制Basis and limits依據與限制 |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y国债10Y Treasury10Y國債 | 5.22% · 2026-10-08 | 观察日早于起点；原发布时间档案未全部核验Observation precedes origin; original publication-time archives are incomplete觀察日早於起點；原發布時間檔案未全部核驗 |
| 权益成本Equity cost權益成本 | 11.22% | rf + 6 percentage points |
| 债务成本代理Debt-cost proxy債務成本代理 | 6.22% | rf + 1 percentage point |
| 账面债务权重Book debt weight賬面債務權重 | 12.72% | senior debt / (senior debt + book equity) |
| WACC | 10.4654% | 账面资本结构与15%税盾，不是市场资本结构真值Book capital weights and 15% tax shield; not true market-capital weights賬面資本結構與15%税盾，不是市場資本結構真值 |
| 税率Tax rate税率 | 15.00% | 固定正常化经营税率；公司全年指引16–18%Fixed normalized operating tax; company full-year guidance 16–18%固定正常化經營税率；公司全年指引16–18% |
| 终点Terminal date終點 | 60M | 原点后60个月，同一终点不滚动重启Sixty months after origin, without resetting the terminal原點後60個月，同一終點不滾動重啓 |
| 终值增长／ROICTerminal growth / ROIC終值增長／ROIC | 3.00% / 25.00% | 净再投资g/ROIC为12%，固定经济假设Net reinvestment g/ROIC is 12%; fixed economic assumptions淨再投資g/ROIC為12%，固定經濟假設 |
权益回报的6个百分点为固定研究加成，并非本轮独立估计的市场ERP。国债通过必要回报影响估值，联邦基金利率不直接决定PE。折现参数与终值假设没有根据现价、分析师平均目标或新回测误差拟合。The six-percentage-point equity allowance is fixed for research, not a newly estimated market ERP. Treasury yields affect valuation through required returns; the federal-funds rate does not directly set PE. Discount and terminal assumptions are not fitted to share prices, average analyst targets or new backtest errors.權益回報的6個百分點為固定研究加成，並非本輪獨立估計的市場ERP。國債通過必要回報影響估值，聯邦基金利率不直接決定PE。折現參數與終值假設沒有根據現價、分析師平均目標或新回測誤差擬合。
经营现金流＝NOPAT＋折旧−生产性资本开支−营运资本存量增加−本金储备。现金强度沿用同日起点已知TTM资料；营运资本强度乘滚动四季收入形成存量，再扣变化。由最新报告日到起点的stub只滚动一次；债务利息、派息、本金、SBC及投资不重复计入。Operating economic cash flow = NOPAT + depreciation − productive CapEx − working-capital increases − principal reserve. Cash intensities retain then-known TTM disclosures. The working-capital ratio multiplies rolling four-quarter revenue to estimate the stock, and its change is deducted. The stub from the latest reporting date to origin is projected once; debt interest, dividends, principal, SBC and investments are not double counted.經營現金流＝NOPAT＋折舊−生產性資本開支−營運資本存量增加−本金儲備。現金強度沿用同日起點已知TTM資料；營運資本強度乘滾動四季收入形成存量，再扣變化。由最新報告日到起點的stub只滾動一次；債務利息、派息、本金、SBC及投資不重複計入。
0M经营价值到每股公允价值From 0M operating value to per-share fair value0M經營價值到每股公允價值
| 股权桥项目Equity bridge item股權橋項目 | USD十亿美元USD billionsUSD十億美元 |
|---|---|
| 剩余经营现金流现值Remaining economic cash-flow PV剩餘經營現金流現值 | 1,766.096 |
| 终值现值Terminal PV終值現值 | 4,442.671 |
| 经营价值合计Total operating value經營價值合計 | 6,208.767 |
| 加：模型滚动经济现金Add: modeled rolled-forward economic cash加：模型滾動經濟現金 | 97.483 |
| 加：确认的投资账面值Add: verified investment carrying values加：確認的投資賬面值 | 98.897 |
| 减：高级债务Less: senior debt減：高級債務 | 33.366 |
| 条件股权价值Conditional equity value條件股權價值 | 6,371.781 |
条件股权价值除以24.285十亿股＝$262.38；公允Core PE为18.85852倍。终值现值占经营价值71.55%，估值因此对长期增长、ROIC及必要回报敏感。Conditional equity value divided by 24.285 billion shares = $262.38; fair Core PE is 18.85852. Terminal PV accounts for 71.55% of operating value, making value sensitive to perpetual growth, ROIC and required returns.條件股權價值除以24.285十億股＝$262.38；公允Core PE為18.85852倍。終值現值佔經營價值71.55%，估值因此對長期增長、ROIC及必要回報敏感。
起点经济现金是由最新报表滚动至10月9日的模型估计，并非已核验的当日银行余额。投资是确认的总账面值，不等于已证明税后可变现金额。资产融资期末索取权、其他付款义务、投资专属税负及已有期权/RSU未全部映射；不能称完整清算值、无条件合理价或保守下限。Origin economic cash is modeled from the latest balance sheet through October 9, not a verified same-day bank balance. Investments are verified gross carrying values, not proven realizable after-tax proceeds. Ending asset-financing claims, other payment obligations, investment-specific taxes and existing option/RSU claims are incompletely mapped. The result is not a complete liquidation value, unconditional fair price or conservative floor.起點經濟現金是由最新報表滾動至10月9日的模型估計，並非已核驗的當日銀行餘額。投資是確認的總賬面值，不等於已證明税後可變現金額。資產融資期末索取權、其他付款義務、投資專屬税負及已有期權/RSU未全部映射；不能稱完整清算值、無條件合理價或保守下限。
保留原H09未来价格回测Preserve original H09 future-price backtests保留原H09未來價格回測
原三年12个季度起点不变，没有增加月度样本或将10月12日盘中价格用于兑现。6M成熟10、待兑现2；12M成熟8、待兑现4。逐起点EPS、市场PE与6M/12M目标及完整聚合评分复现原H09；0M增加独立价值不改变未来预测的成绩归属。The twelve original quarterly origins within three years remain unchanged, without new monthly samples or October 12 intraday outcome labels. 6M has ten mature/two pending outcomes; 12M has eight mature/four pending. EPS, market PE, future targets and full aggregate scores reproduce original H09. Adding independent 0M value does not transfer future forecast scores to fair value.原三年12個季度起點不變，沒有增加月度樣本或將10月12日盤中價格用於兑現。6M成熟10、待兑現2；12M成熟8、待兑現4。逐起點EPS、市場PE與6M/12M目標及完整聚合評分復現原H09；0M增加獨立價值不改變未來預測的成績歸屬。
| 期限Horizon期限 | 模型Model模型 | 成熟NMature N成熟N | 待兑现NPending N待兑現N | MAPE | MALE | 中位APEMedian APE中位APE | P90 APEP90 APEP90 APE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M | H09 | 10 | 2 | 14.33% | 0.14744 | 12.21% | 30.89% |
| 6M | 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 10 | 2 | 21.14% | 0.25371 | 19.73% | 37.75% |
| 12M | H09 | 8 | 4 | 14.91% | 0.16237 | 10.46% | 26.31% |
| 12M | 价格不变Price unchanged價格不變 | 8 | 4 | 32.20% | 0.42024 | 32.34% | 47.51% |
MAPE为平均绝对百分比误差，分母是实际价格；不是准确率。原样本集中在AI周期、窗口重叠且反复用于研究。未来成交价是价格预测标签，并不是内在价值真值。当前6M与12M仍待兑现，独立样本外验证未完成。MAPE is mean absolute percentage error with realized price in the denominator, not an accuracy rate. Origins concentrate in the AI cycle, overlap and have been reused for development. Future traded price is a forecast label, not intrinsic-value ground truth. Current 6M/12M targets remain pending and independent OOS validation is incomplete.MAPE為平均絕對百分比誤差，分母是實際價格；不是準確率。原樣本集中在AI週期、窗口重疊且反覆用於研究。未來成交價是價格預測標籤，並不是內在價值真值。當前6M與12M仍待兑現，獨立樣本外驗證未完成。
分析师平均目标价对照保持原H09口径Analyst-average comparisons retain original H09 basis分析師平均目標價對照保持原H09口徑
| 比较Comparison比較 | 模型Model模型 | N | MAPE | MALE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 同日12M目标差Same-date 12M target disagreement同日12M目標差 | H09 | 12 | 16.86% | 0.14611 |
| 共同成熟实际价格误差Common mature realized-price error共同成熟實際價格誤差 | H09 | 8 | 14.91% | 0.16237 |
| 共同成熟实际价格误差Common mature realized-price error共同成熟實際價格誤差 | 分析师平均目标Average analyst target分析師平均目標 | 8 | 18.39% | 0.22916 |
保留12个同日Stock Analysis平均12M目标，8个共同成熟价格、4个待兑现。同日目标差衡量预期差异；共同成熟价格误差另行评分。分析师数据仅作基准，未拟合盈利或公允PE；12M分析师目标不作为0M或6M验证标签。Preserve 12 same-date Stock Analysis average 12M targets, 8 common mature prices and 4 pending outcomes. Same-date target disagreement measures differences in expectations; realized-price error is scored separately. Analysts are benchmarks only, never fitted into earnings or fair PE. Twelve-month analyst targets are not 0M or 6M validation labels.保留12個同日Stock Analysis平均12M目標，8個共同成熟價格、4個待兑現。同日目標差衡量預期差異；共同成熟價格誤差另行評分。分析師數據僅作基準，未擬合盈利或公允PE；12M分析師目標不作為0M或6M驗證標籤。
新0M可估计性与价格偏离诊断New 0M availability and price-gap diagnostics新0M可估計性與價格偏離診斷
| 项目Item項目 | 结果Result結果 |
|---|---|
| 原历史起点尝试／可估计Original origins attempted / estimable原歷史起點嘗試／可估計 | 12 / 12 |
| 0M相对当时市场价绝对偏离0M absolute gap from contemporaneous market price0M相對當時市場價絕對偏離 | 35.96% |
| 0M Fair Value准确率检验0M Fair Value accuracy test0M Fair Value準確率檢驗 | 未成立；股价不是价值真值Not established; market price is not true value未成立；股價不是價值真值 |
12/12表示现金路径和估值域均可计算，不表示Fair Value被证实正确。0M与当时成交价的差异只用于描述市场定价偏离。旧H09 0M等于现价，其零误差是恒等式，也不能作为价值优劣基准。Twelve of twelve means the cash paths and valuation domains are calculable, not that Fair Value is verified. Gaps from contemporaneous prices describe market-pricing divergence only. Original H09 0M equals the share price; its zero error is an identity and cannot rank intrinsic-value quality.12/12表示現金路徑和估值域均可計算，不表示Fair Value被證實正確。0M與當時成交價的差異只用於描述市場定價偏離。舊H09 0M等於現價，其零誤差是恆等式，也不能作為價值優劣基準。
独立复算、版本边界与状态Independent reproduction, version boundaries and status獨立復算、版本邊界與狀態
| 检验／边界Check / boundary檢驗／邊界 | 状态Status狀態 |
|---|---|
| 经营路径、EPS及原未来预测一致性Operating path, EPS and original future-prediction identity經營路徑、EPS及原未來預測一致性 | 通过Passed通過 |
| 0M独立股权价值与公允PE复算Independent 0M equity value and fair-PE reproduction0M獨立股權價值與公允PE復算 | 通过Passed通過 |
| 现价扰动：0M不变、原H09未来同比例变动Price perturbation: unchanged 0M, proportional original H09 futures現價擾動：0M不變、原H09未來同比例變動 | 通过Passed通過 |
| 新0M历史可估计覆盖New 0M historical availability新0M歷史可估計覆蓋 | 12/12，仅可估计性12/12; availability only12/12，僅可估計性 |
| 完整索取权与不可变历史PITComplete claims and immutable historical PIT完整索取權與不可變歷史PIT | 未完成Incomplete未完成 |
| 正式Champion与独立OOSFormal Champion and independent OOS正式Champion與獨立OOS | 未成立Not established未成立 |
按用户要求选择H09 + FAIR0作为研究展示，不是按期限挑选更高估值或更好回测。0M的新独立公允PE只用于当前价值；未来保持原H09市场PE。实现检查、来源保留和价格隔离通过，不等于模型准确度改善。旧H09、A02失败版本、10月6日预测、原财报情景与H13档案均保留。H09 + FAIR0 is a user-selected research view, not a choice of higher values or better scores by horizon. New independent fair PE is used for current value only; future targets retain original H09 market PE. Passed implementation, preservation and price-isolation checks do not establish improved predictive accuracy. Original H09, failed A02 research, October 6 forecasts, earnings scenarios and H13 archives remain intact.按用户要求選擇H09 + FAIR0作為研究展示，不是按期限挑選更高估值或更好回測。0M的新獨立公允PE只用於當前價值；未來保持原H09市場PE。實現檢查、來源保留和價格隔離通過，不等於模型準確度改善。舊H09、A02失敗版本、10月6日預測、原財報情景與H13檔案均保留。
股数为最新已披露稀释加权平均代理，固定15%税率不同于公司16–18%指引，现金强度和账面资本权重也有模型限制。历史财报和目标按可得日重建；原始发布时间、修订及拆股沿革未完整独立核验。逐起点Pro目标、原财报及现金账留内部，公开只保留自有输出、方法、聚合结果与审计摘要。Shares use a latest reported diluted weighted-average proxy; 15% fixed tax differs from 16%–18% company guidance, and cash intensities/book-capital weights have modeling limits. Historical filings and targets reconstruct availability; original publication times, revisions and split lineage are not fully verified. Origin-level Pro targets, raw filings and cash ledgers remain internal; only original outputs, methods, aggregate results and audit summaries are public.股數為最新已披露稀釋加權平均代理，固定15%税率不同於公司16–18%指引，現金強度和賬面資本權重也有模型限制。歷史財報和目標按可得日重建；原始發佈時間、修訂及拆股沿革未完整獨立核驗。逐起點Pro目標、原財報及現金賬留內部，公開只保留自有輸出、方法、聚合結果與審計摘要。
来源与记录摘要Sources and record summary來源與記錄摘要
NVIDIA latest financial reportsNVIDIA latest financial reportsNVIDIA latest financial reports
US Treasury daily yield curveUS Treasury daily yield curveUS Treasury daily yield curve
Terminal excess returnsTerminal excess returnsTerminal excess returns
RA-NVDA-H09-FAIR0-v0.1 · Protocol SHA256 c0b0b95570e0e2bc313fec688e1850d5f625e882ef49546a13cb434ebcf1a2d9
Public aggregate SHA256 8eac37ac69e7a7cc0f222982a8b71ce8251ead3c51b1767eed33066fc65e22d4
NVDA个股研究当前模型Current NVDA equity modelNVDA個股研究當前模型 · H09原方法与研究Original H09 method and studyH09原方法與研究 · A02-PE01失败版本档案Failed A02-PE01 version archiveA02-PE01失敗版本檔案 · H13资本现金桥档案H13 capital-cash bridge archiveH13資本現金橋檔案