NVDA / VERSIONED RESEARCH / 2026-09-25
V1 → V2：模型结构与已有检验V1 → V2: model structure and available evaluationV1 → V2：模型結構與已有檢驗
修订目标不是让目标价更高，而是让增长、盈利和估值判断可以解释、复算与检验。模型方法、历史重建、前瞻运行分开登记。The revision aims for explainable, reproducible and testable growth, earnings and valuation judgments—not higher targets. Methodology, historical reconstruction and forward runs are separate records.修訂目標不是讓目標價更高，而是讓增長、盈利和估值判斷可以解釋、復算與檢驗。模型方法、歷史重建、前瞻運行分開登記。
| 环节Component環節 | V1 | V2 |
|---|---|---|
| 近端收入Near-term revenue近端收入 | 原始研究按业务平台设路径；历史重建版以单季总收入指引机械外推。Original research uses platform paths; its historical reconstruction mechanically extrapolates aggregate quarterly guidance.原始研究按業務平台設路徑；歷史重建版以單季總收入指引機械外推。 | 先剥离特殊业务冲击；近端锚定指引，中期按交付与业务驱动建模。Separate special business shocks, anchor the near term to guidance and model medium-term business/delivery drivers.先剝離特殊業務衝擊；近端錨定指引，中期按交付與業務驅動建模。 |
| 增长延续Growth duration增長延續 | 历史重建的环比增长强度逐季乘0.85。Reconstructed sequential growth strength decays by 0.85 each quarter.歷史重建的環比增長強度逐季乘0.85。 | 分阶段衔接；起点、长期水平、收敛速度分别有依据，不统一使用0.85。Stage-based transition with supported starting growth, long-run growth and convergence speed, rather than a universal 0.85.分階段銜接；起點、長期水平、收斂速度分別有依據，不統一使用0.85。 |
| 利润路径Profit path利潤路徑 | 重建版Base毛利率由指引水平逐步下降1.5个百分点。Reconstructed Base gross margin declines 1.5 percentage points from guidance.重建版Base毛利率由指引水平逐步下降1.5個百分點。 | 根据产品、成本和管理层信息允许恢复或恶化，费用随经营规模联动。Allow recovery or deterioration based on product, cost and management evidence; expenses respond to operating scale.根據產品、成本和管理層信息允許恢復或惡化，費用隨經營規模聯動。 |
| 倍数Multiple倍數 | 六年盈利资本化；历史重建沿用固定增长/资本回报参数及有缺陷的跨时点利率差。Six-year earnings capitalization; reconstruction retains fixed growth/return assumptions and a flawed cross-date rate adjustment.六年盈利資本化；歷史重建沿用固定增長/資本回報參數及有缺陷的跨時點利率差。 | 经营与资本化增长一致；历史时点利率独立取值，不移植2026年利率差。Align operating and capitalization growth; use information available at each historical origin, not a 2026 rate spread.經營與資本化增長一致；歷史時點利率獨立取值，不移植2026年利率差。 |
| 验证状态Validation status驗證狀態 | 有8个成熟样本的回顾性汇总；不是严格样本外胜率。Retrospective summary with eight mature samples; not a strict out-of-sample win rate.有8個成熟樣本的回顧性彙總；不是嚴格樣本外勝率。 | 本页发布结构，不展示未取得的历史回测成绩。Structure is published here; unavailable historical backtest results are not displayed.本頁發佈結構，不展示未取得的歷史回測成績。 |
主公式与时间窗口Core formula and time windows主公式與時間窗口
T0 = valuation origin; T12 = T0 + 12 calendar months; T24 = T0 + 24 calendar months Current NTM EPS: [T0, T12) Target-date NTM EPS: [T12, T24) Pₛ(T12) = EPSₛ[T12,T24) × Exit P/Eₛ(T12) E[P(T12)] = Σ wₛ × (EPSₛ × P/Eₛ)
先逐季预测，再按目标窗口的重叠天数汇总净利润，并除以该窗口的加权平均稀释股数。不能把当前NTM、目标日NTM或更远财年EPS互换。情景先分别算价再加权，不能用平均EPS乘平均P/E。Forecast by quarter, allocate net income by overlap days, then divide by the window’s weighted-average diluted shares. Current NTM, target-date NTM and more distant fiscal-year EPS are not interchangeable. Price each scenario before weighting; mean EPS times mean P/E is not equivalent.先逐季預測，再按目標窗口的重疊天數彙總淨利潤，併除以該窗口的加權平均稀釋股數。不能把當前NTM、目標日NTM或更遠財年EPS互換。情景先分別算價再加權，不能用平均EPS乘平均P/E。
季度内按天均匀分摊是一项插值假设，无法代表实际交付节奏。价格标签满12个月，与目标日NTM盈利已经全部披露，是两个不同的成熟条件。Uniform daily allocation within a quarter is an interpolation assumption, not an actual delivery schedule. A matured 12-month price label and fully reported target-date NTM earnings are separate maturity conditions.季度內按天均勻分攤是一項插值假設，無法代表實際交付節奏。價格標籤滿12個月，與目標日NTM盈利已經全部披露，是兩個不同的成熟條件。
来源与发布边界Sources and publication boundary來源與發佈邊界
依据“英伟达估值研究”对话及2026-09-25原始研究稿整理，2026-09-26迁入本站。V1/V2属于该对话的研究版本，不等同于本站P11.1、N2.2或模型族v0.1；不将不同分支的参数和成绩混合。Compiled from the NVIDIA Valuation Research conversation and the original 2026-09-25 report; migrated to this site on 2026-09-26. These V1/V2 labels belong to that research conversation, not the site’s P11.1, N2.2 or family v0.1. Parameters and results from different branches are not blended.依據“英偉達估值研究”對話及2026-09-25原始研究稿整理，2026-09-26遷入本站。V1/V2屬於該對話的研究版本，不等同於本站P11.1、N2.2或模型族v0.1；不將不同分支的參數和成績混合。
模型结构是已有研究的摘要，不代表新的估值运行。本次只刊登已有V1历史检验摘要，不刊登V2单点诊断价格、前瞻目标价或尚未取得的十年回测。未对完整回测底稿重新运行，不声称独立复现。The structures summarize existing research, not a new valuation run. This release includes only the available V1 historical-evaluation summary; it excludes V2 single-origin diagnostic prices, forward targets and unavailable ten-year backtests. Complete backtest working files were not rerun; independent replication is not claimed.模型結構是已有研究的摘要，不代表新的估值運行。本次只刊登已有V1歷史檢驗摘要，不刊登V2單點診斷價格、前瞻目標價或尚未取得的十年回測。未對完整回測底稿重新運行，不聲稱獨立復現。
本次整理数据 SHA-256Compiled data SHA-256本次整理數據 SHA-256: 999064b7916f493d522c086041c7e05fe6ffdcb5accb8cf21d9eeb4eb0a2fb06
内容校验值不是历史公开时间证明或第三方审计认证。研究源稿与对话记录保留在本地；不提供失效的附件链接。The checksum is not proof of historical publication or third-party audit certification. Source reports and conversation provenance are retained locally; no expired attachment links are presented.內容校驗值不是歷史公開時間證明或第三方審計認證。研究源稿與對話記錄保留在本地；不提供失效的附件鏈接。