早盘Dashboard与市场广度Early-session dashboard and breadth早盤Dashboard與市場廣度
以下是原稿记录的已发生行情，价格单位为美元。SPY和QQQ是ETF价格，分别参考标普500和纳斯达克100，不是现金指数点位。These are observations already known to the source report, in U.S. dollars. SPY and QQQ are ETF prices referencing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, not cash-index levels.以下是原稿記錄的已發生行情，價格單位為美元。SPY和QQQ是ETF價格，分別參考標普500和納斯達克100，不是現金指數點位。
| 标的Symbol標的 | 约10:35价格 / 涨跌About 10:35 price / change約10:35價格 / 漲跌 | 10/5官方收盘Oct 5 official close10/5官方收盤 | 20日 / 50日均线20-day / 50-day SMA20日 / 50日均線 | 盘前低–高Pre-market low–high盤前低–高 | 已发生早盘低–高Observed early-session low–high已發生早盤低–高 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 241.85 / +1.24% | 238.90 | 224.21 / 218.92 | 239.44–242.40 | 240.76–243.37 |
| MSFT | 532.91 / +1.47% | 525.18 | 502.95 / 490.59 | 526.25–532.00 | 528.82–535.69 |
| AMZN | 254.35 / +1.17% | 251.40 | 251.29 / 256.93 | 252.09–253.95 | 251.08–254.22 |
| GOOGL | 346.95 / +0.14% | 346.47 | 343.02 / 344.90 | 347.07–348.89 | 344.68–348.09 |
| AVGO | 374.65 / +3.35% | 362.51 | 354.33 / 372.83 | 363.02–367.16 | 364.01–377.61 |
| SPY | 779.16 / +0.56% | 774.83 | 765.06 / 764.42 | 775.40–778.53 | 777.96–780.67 |
| QQQ | 760.41 / +0.56% | 756.20 | 729.64 / 718.26 | 756.13–761.06 | 759.10–762.09 |
| SMH | 636.12 / +0.35% | 633.90 | 587.49 / 571.30 | 633.00–638.74 | 635.09–639.47 |
| RSP | 212.13 / +0.48% | 211.12 | 212.08 / 216.62 | 211.29–211.94 | 211.77–212.69 |
| IWM | 281.91 / -0.52% | 283.38 | 284.38 / 292.42 | 283.15–285.05 | 281.76–284.64 |
SPY与QQQ约涨0.56%，SMH涨0.35%，RSP涨0.48%，IWM跌0.52%。等权上涨而小盘下跌，说明参与度分化。缺少全市场涨跌家数和涨跌成交量，不能据此称广度已经全面改善。SPY and QQQ gained about 0.56%, SMH 0.35% and RSP 0.48%, while IWM fell 0.52%. Equal-weight strength alongside weaker small caps indicates uneven participation. Market-wide advance/decline counts and volume are missing, so comprehensive breadth improvement is unconfirmed.SPY與QQQ約漲0.56%，SMH漲0.35%，RSP漲0.48%，IWM跌0.52%。等權上漲而小盤下跌，説明參與度分化。缺少全市場漲跌家數和漲跌成交量，不能據此稱廣度已經全面改善。
技术口径：使用6月1日至10月5日共88根完整、拆股调整日线，剔除插值；20/50日均线不含今天。盘前区间为04:00–09:30 ET，早盘高低只使用09:30至10:35已经完成的5分钟K线。不同报价有各自时间，不能当作一个同步时刻。Technicals use 88 complete split-adjusted daily bars from June 1 through October 5, excluding interpolated observations. The 20/50-day averages exclude today. Pre-market ranges cover 04:00–09:30 ET; early-session ranges use completed five-minute bars from 09:30 to 10:35. Quotes have separate timestamps.技術口徑：使用6月1日至10月5日共88根完整、拆股調整日線，剔除插值；20/50日均線不含今天。盤前區間為04:00–09:30 ET，早盤高低只使用09:30至10:35已經完成的5分鐘K線。不同報價有各自時間，不能當作一個同步時刻。
宏观：贸易赤字扩大，政策压力尚存Macro: a wider trade deficit and persistent policy pressure宏觀：貿易赤字擴大，政策壓力尚存
| 数据 / 发布Data / release數據 / 發佈 | 实际 / 状态Actual / status實際 / 狀態 | 预期与前值Forecast and prior預期與前值 | 来源与时间Source and time來源與時間 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8月商品及服务贸易差额August goods and services trade balance8月商品及服務貿易差額 | -$105.6B | Forex Factory预期-$100.8B；7月修订-$92.8B，初值-$88.6BForex Factory forecast -$100.8B; July revised -$92.8B, initially -$88.6BForex Factory預期-$100.8B；7月修訂-$92.8B，初值-$88.6B | BEA / Census，10/6 08:30 ETBEA / Census, Oct 6 08:30 ETBEA / Census，10/6 08:30 ET |
| 联邦基金目标区间Federal funds target range聯邦基金目標區間 | 3.75%–4.00% | 9/16加息25bp；今天没有该决议Raised 25bp on Sep 16; not a decision released today9/16加息25bp；今天沒有該決議 | Federal Reserve，9/16 14:00 ETFederal Reserve, Sep 16 14:00 ETFederal Reserve，9/16 14:00 ET |
| 2年美债U.S. 2-year yield2年美債 | 4.812% | 来源参考前值4.833%；网页时间09:59:16，时区未明示Source prior 4.833%; page time 09:59:16, timezone unspecified來源參考前值4.833%；網頁時間09:59:16，時區未明示 | 源稿网页参考快照，非财政部日终值Source-report page snapshot, not Treasury end-of-day data源稿網頁參考快照，非財政部日終值 |
| 10年美债U.S. 10-year yield10年美債 | 5.28% | 源稿前日尾盘5.31%；第三方早盘交叉核验Source report prior late-session 5.31%; cross-checked against early market coverage源稿前日尾盤5.31%；第三方早盤交叉核驗 | AP源稿09:35 ET；Schwab早盘报道交叉核验AP source report 09:35 ET; cross-check with Schwab early coverageAP源稿09:35 ET；Schwab早盤報道交叉核驗 |
| DXY | 101.95 / -0.22% | 网页时间10:30:50，时区未明示Page time 10:30:50, timezone unspecified網頁時間10:30:50，時區未明示 | 源稿网页参考快照Source-report page snapshot源稿網頁參考快照 |
| WTI / Brent | $87.96 / $97.97 | 分别-1.64% / -2.3%；合约和时点不同-1.64% / -2.3%, respectively; contracts and timestamps differ分別-1.64% / -2.3%；合約和時點不同 | WTI网页10:26:19，时区未明示；Brent源稿AP09:35 ETWTI page 10:26:19, timezone unspecified; Brent from source-report AP 09:35 ETWTI網頁10:26:19，時區未明示；Brent源稿AP09:35 ET |
| VIX | 15.36 | 是波动预期指标，不是下跌概率An expected-volatility measure, not a probability of falling prices是波動預期指標，不是下跌概率 | Robinhood，10:36:31 ETRobinhood, 10:36:31 ETRobinhood，10:36:31 ET |
贸易赤字大于该调查预期，且7月前值被上修为更大的赤字。综合商品与服务差额不能与先行商品贸易值混用；调查预期也会因供应商和样本不同而不同。贸易变化影响增长统计，但不能单凭一项名义数据推断经济衰退或当天股价方向。The deficit exceeded this survey forecast, with July revised to a larger deficit. The combined goods-and-services balance differs from advance goods-only data, and consensus varies by survey. Trade affects growth accounting, but one nominal release cannot establish recession or determine the day’s equity direction.貿易赤字大於該調查預期，且7月前值被上修為更大的赤字。綜合商品與服務差額不能與先行商品貿易值混用；調查預期也會因供應商和樣本不同而不同。貿易變化影響增長統計，但不能單憑一項名義數據推斷經濟衰退或當天股價方向。
作者判断：油价和收益率回落暂时缓解成长股的能源与折现率压力。这个解释是与行情一致的推论，不证明上涨只有一个原因。10年收益率仍超过5%，9月加息的政策背景并未因一天油价下跌而解除。Author interpretation: lower oil and yields temporarily ease energy and discount-rate pressure on growth equities. This is a plausible explanation consistent with the observations, not proof of a single cause. The 10-year yield remains above 5%, and one oil decline does not reverse September’s policy tightening.作者判斷：油價和收益率回落暫時緩解成長股的能源與折現率壓力。這個解釋是與行情一致的推論，不證明上漲只有一個原因。10年收益率仍超過5%，9月加息的政策背景並未因一天油價下跌而解除。
BEA · August trade release · Survey and revisions · FOMC statement · Schwab · early market coverage
四条可复盘条件判断Four auditable conditional calls四條可復盤條件判斷
以下编号由网站为源稿的条件判断新增，不冒充原稿已有编号；固定价位与6根确认规则保持不变。原稿10:40:35 ET登记与公开网页登记分别保留。公开检验只使用首次成功上线后才开始的完整常规时段5分钟K线，到2026-10-06 16:00 ET截止。所有语言使用同一阈值；没有统计依据，不赋概率。The website adds IDs to the source report’s conditional calls; they were not original report IDs. Price thresholds and the six-bar rule are preserved. Internal registration at 10:40:35 ET and web registration are separate. Public evaluation uses only complete regular-session five-minute bars starting after the first successful public deployment, ending October 6, 2026 at 16:00 ET. Thresholds match across languages; no unsupported probabilities are assigned.以下編號由網站為源稿的條件判斷新增，不冒充原稿已有編號；固定價位與6根確認規則保持不變。原稿10:40:35 ET登記與公開網頁登記分別保留。公開檢驗只使用首次成功上線後才開始的完整常規時段5分鐘K線，到2026-10-06 16:00 ET截止。所有語言使用同一閾值；沒有統計依據，不賦概率。
| 编号ID編號 | 冻结的条件判断Frozen conditional call凍結的條件判斷 | 判定规则Evaluation rule判定規則 |
|---|---|---|
| 06-AM-A | 基准为偏强震荡；SPY 777.96与QQQ 759.10为撤销门槛。若二者在同一组连续6根完整5分钟收盘同时低于门槛，撤销偏强判断。Base view: a constructive range. Revoke it if SPY and QQQ close below 777.96 and 759.10, respectively, throughout the same six complete five-minute bars.基準為偏強震盪；SPY 777.96與QQQ 759.10為撤銷門檻。若二者在同一組連續6根完整5分鐘收盤同時低於門檻，撤銷偏強判斷。 | 出现共同6根下破：基准失效；截至16:00未出现：基准未失效，不等于盈利预测命中；路径缺失：数据不足。A joint six-bar breakdown invalidates the base view. Without it by 16:00, the view remains uninvalidated, not a profit forecast hit. Missing path: insufficient data.出現共同6根下破：基準失效；截至16:00未出現：基準未失效，不等於盈利預測命中；路徑缺失：數據不足。 |
| 06-AM-B | 偏强延伸需SPY>780.67、QQQ>762.09、SMH>639.47，在同一组连续6根完整5分钟收盘确认；之后任一标的连续6根回到各自突破位下方，延伸失效。Upside extension requires SPY >780.67, QQQ >762.09 and SMH >639.47 in the same six complete five-minute closes. A subsequent six-bar reversal below any respective breakout level invalidates the extension.偏強延伸需SPY>780.67、QQQ>762.09、SMH>639.47，在同一組連續6根完整5分鐘收盤確認；之後任一標的連續6根回到各自突破位下方，延伸失效。 | 触发且截至16:00未失效：条件成立；触发后失效：条件未维持；从未触发：未触发；路径不全：数据不足。Triggered with no invalidation through 16:00: condition held. Triggered then invalidated: did not persist. Never triggered: not triggered. Incomplete path: insufficient data.觸發且截至16:00未失效：條件成立；觸發後失效：條件未維持；從未觸發：未觸發；路徑不全：數據不足。 |
| 06-AM-C | 偏弱条件：SPY<777.96且QQQ<759.10在同一组连续6根收盘确认。SMH进一步跌至634.78下方则更弱；二者共同连续6根重回各自门槛上方则弱势失效。Weakness requires SPY <777.96 and QQQ <759.10 in the same six complete closes. SMH below 634.78 adds weakness. A joint six-bar recovery above the respective SPY/QQQ thresholds invalidates it.偏弱條件：SPY<777.96且QQQ<759.10在同一組連續6根收盤確認。SMH進一步跌至634.78下方則更弱；二者共同連續6根重回各自門檻上方則弱勢失效。 | 弱势触发且截至16:00无共同恢复：条件成立；随后恢复：失效；无触发：未触发；路径缺失：数据不足。与A相关，不能当独立样本。Triggered without a joint recovery by 16:00: condition held. Subsequent recovery: invalidated. No trigger: not triggered. Missing path: insufficient data. Correlated with A, not an independent sample.弱勢觸發且截至16:00無共同恢復：條件成立；隨後恢復：失效；無觸發：未觸發；路徑缺失：數據不足。與A相關，不能當獨立樣本。 |
| 06-AM-D | NVDA>243.37连续6根完整5分钟收盘，确认向上突破；之后连续6根<240.10则原趋势判断转谨慎，238.90为下一参考。NVDA >243.37 for six complete five-minute closes confirms an upside break. A later six-bar sequence <240.10 shifts the trend view to caution; 238.90 is the next reference.NVDA>243.37連續6根完整5分鐘收盤，確認向上突破；之後連續6根<240.10則原趨勢判斷轉謹慎，238.90為下一參考。 | 突破触发且截至16:00未失效：条件成立；触发后转弱：未维持；无突破：未触发；无完整路径：数据不足。Breakout triggered and not invalidated by 16:00: condition held. Later weakness: did not persist. No breakout: not triggered. Incomplete path: insufficient data.突破觸發且截至16:00未失效：條件成立；觸發後轉弱：未維持；無突破：未觸發；無完整路徑：數據不足。 |
连续6根指同一标的连续、已完成且有真实成交的5分钟K线；共同确认必须是相同时间窗，不把单次碰价、插值或缺失K线补成确认。A/C互相关联，B/D也共享市场因素。盘后同时记录触发时刻、失效时刻和实际路径；这些条件检验不汇总成独立样本外胜率。Six bars means consecutive completed five-minute bars with real trading; joint confirmation uses the same time window. A touch, interpolation or missing bar does not complete confirmation. A/C are related, while B/D share market drivers. The review records trigger and invalidation times and the actual path; these tests do not become an independent out-of-sample win rate.連續6根指同一標的連續、已完成且有真實成交的5分鐘K線；共同確認必須是相同時間窗，不把單次碰價、插值或缺失K線補成確認。A/C互相關聯，B/D也共享市場因素。盤後同時記錄觸發時刻、失效時刻和實際路徑；這些條件檢驗不彙總成獨立樣本外勝率。
NVDA、GOOGL、MSFT、AMZN、AVGO技术观察Technical watch: NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN and AVGONVDA、GOOGL、MSFT、AMZN、AVGO技術觀察
| 标的Symbol標的 | 观察逻辑Interpretation觀察邏輯 | 转强条件与风险位置Strength and risk levels轉強條件與風險位置 |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 位于20/50日线上；早盘相对强势仍需持续确认。Above the 20/50-day averages; early relative strength needs persistence.位於20/50日線上；早盤相對強勢仍需持續確認。 | 近支撑240.76–240.10；上方243.37；6根收盘低于240.10转谨慎，下一参考238.90。Near support 240.76–240.10; upside reference 243.37. Six closes below 240.10 warrant caution; next reference 238.90.近支撐240.76–240.10；上方243.37；6根收盤低於240.10轉謹慎，下一參考238.90。 |
| GOOGL | 涨幅小于大盘；关注早盘低位与50日线相邻区域。Lagging the broader market; watch the early low near the 50-day average.漲幅小於大盤；關注早盤低位與50日線相鄰區域。 | 阻力348.09–348.89，支撑344.68–344.90；6根收盘低于344.68撤销日内企稳判断。Resistance 348.09–348.89; support 344.68–344.90. Six closes below 344.68 invalidate intraday stabilization.阻力348.09–348.89，支撐344.68–344.90；6根收盤低於344.68撤銷日內企穩判斷。 |
| MSFT | 明显高于20/50日线，较昨日收盘反弹，但不能仅凭早盘涨幅判断收盘。Well above the 20/50-day averages, rebounding from the previous close; the early gain does not determine the close.明顯高於20/50日線，較昨日收盤反彈，但不能僅憑早盤漲幅判斷收盤。 | 532.35为昨日高点，535.69为早盘高点；6根收盘低于528.82转谨慎。532.35 is the prior high; 535.69 the observed early high. Six closes below 528.82 warrant caution.532.35為昨日高點，535.69為早盤高點；6根收盤低於528.82轉謹慎。 |
| AMZN | 反弹仍受50日均线256.93压制，需区分反弹与趋势延伸。The rebound remains below the 50-day average at 256.93; a rebound is not yet a trend extension.反彈仍受50日均線256.93壓制，需區分反彈與趨勢延伸。 | 阻力254.53–256.93；连续6根站上256.93确认延伸；6根低于251.08提示反弹失败。Resistance 254.53–256.93. Six closes above 256.93 confirm extension; six below 251.08 suggest rebound failure.阻力254.53–256.93；連續6根站上256.93確認延伸；6根低於251.08提示反彈失敗。 |
| AVGO | 涨幅较强，重返50日线附近之上；一次越线不足以确认完整趋势反转。A stronger gain and recovery above the 50-day average; one crossing does not establish a full reversal.漲幅較強，重返50日線附近之上；一次越線不足以確認完整趨勢反轉。 | 372.83为50日线，377.61为早盘高；6根失守372.83转谨慎。50-day average 372.83; observed early high 377.61. Six closes below 372.83 warrant caution.372.83為50日線，377.61為早盤高；6根失守372.83轉謹慎。 |
早盘成交量分别约为NVDA 1638万股、MSFT 290万、AMZN 387万、GOOGL 261万、AVGO 531万；20日完整日均量约为1.096亿、2168万、3561万、2749万、2447万。缺少相同早盘时段的历史均量，不据此声称放量或缩量突破。Early volumes were approximately 16.38m shares for NVDA, 2.90m MSFT, 3.87m AMZN, 2.61m GOOGL and 5.31m AVGO. Full-day 20-day averages were about 109.6m, 21.68m, 35.61m, 27.49m and 24.47m. Without comparable historical early-session volumes, these do not establish a high- or low-volume breakout.早盤成交量分別約為NVDA 1638萬股、MSFT 290萬、AMZN 387萬、GOOGL 261萬、AVGO 531萬；20日完整日均量約為1.096億、2168萬、3561萬、2749萬、2447萬。缺少相同早盤時段的歷史均量，不據此聲稱放量或縮量突破。
新闻：AI需求、供电瓶颈与融资风险News: AI demand, power constraints and financing risk新聞：AI需求、供電瓶頸與融資風險
Reuters 10月5日报道摩根士丹利认为NVDA、AVGO对数据中心电力瓶颈的承受力相对较强。它属于分析师观点，不能当成新增订单或公司指引。作者关注的是交付、客户部署与电力协调是否延迟收入兑现。Reuters on October 5 reported Morgan Stanley’s view that NVDA and AVGO are relatively insulated from data-center power bottlenecks. This is an analyst assessment, not a new order or company guidance. The research question is whether delivery, customer deployment and power coordination delay revenue realization.Reuters 10月5日報道摩根士丹利認為NVDA、AVGO對數據中心電力瓶頸的承受力相對較強。它屬於分析師觀點，不能當成新增訂單或公司指引。作者關注的是交付、客户部署與電力協調是否延遲收入兑現。
FT报道经媒体转述，银行启动约$60B融资的分销，以支持Anthropic租赁Google相关半导体。这是融资与产业链需求的报道，尚未在本轮完整核验公司公告与全部条款。对AVGO/GOOGL可能有情绪支持，也应关注信用、回款与交付风险；融资额不等于当季确认收入。Media accounts of FT reporting describe syndication of roughly $60B to support Anthropic leasing Google-related semiconductors. This concerns financing and supply-chain demand; full company announcements and terms were not verified here. It may support sentiment around AVGO/GOOGL, while raising credit, payment and delivery questions. Financing is not current-quarter recognized revenue.FT報道經媒體轉述，銀行啓動約$60B融資的分銷，以支持Anthropic租賃Google相關半導體。這是融資與產業鏈需求的報道，尚未在本輪完整核驗公司公告與全部條款。對AVGO/GOOGL可能有情緒支持，也應關注信用、回款與交付風險；融資額不等於當季確認收入。
源稿没有核验到足以单独解释MSFT、AMZN当天上涨的公司重大公告，也没有确认新的中美协议、芯片出口许可或对应订单。个股上涨的解释仍应与公开公告、财报和真实技术条件交叉验证。The source report did not verify a major company announcement independently explaining MSFT or AMZN’s gain, nor a new U.S.–China agreement, chip-export license or related order. Explanations should be checked against announcements, earnings and observed technical conditions.源稿沒有核驗到足以單獨解釋MSFT、AMZN當天上漲的公司重大公告，也沒有確認新的中美協議、芯片出口許可或對應訂單。個股上漲的解釋仍應與公開公告、財報和真實技術條件交叉驗證。
Reuters · Morgan Stanley assessment · Media account of FT financing report
事件日历与尚未核验数据Event calendar and unverified releases事件日曆與尚未核驗數據
| 日期 / ETDate / ET日期 / ET | 事件Event事件 | 状态与注意事项Status and caveat狀態與注意事項 |
|---|---|---|
| 10/6 08:30 | 美国贸易差额U.S. trade balance美國貿易差額 | 已公布，实际与调查预期见宏观表Released; actual and survey forecast shown above已公佈，實際與調查預期見宏觀表 |
| 10/6 10:00 | GSCPIGSCPIGSCPI | 源稿未取得最新可核验读数；实际、预期和修订前值均未知No verified latest reading in the source report; actual, forecast and revisions unknown源稿未取得最新可核驗讀數；實際、預期和修訂前值均未知 |
| 10/6 | EIA短期能源展望EIA Short-Term Energy OutlookEIA短期能源展望 | 官方下一发布日期为10/6；第三方曾列12:00 ET。发布前复核仍显示9/9版，10月结果待核验Official next-release date is Oct 6; a third-party calendar listed 12:00 ET. Pre-publication check still showed the Sep 9 release; October results unverified官方下一發布日期為10/6；第三方曾列12:00 ET。發佈前複核仍顯示9/9版，10月結果待核驗 |
| 10/7 11:00 | 纽约联储消费者预期调查New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations紐約聯儲消費者預期調查 | 按官方日历；实际值尚未公布Official calendar; actual not yet released按官方日曆；實際值尚未公佈 |
| 10/8 08:30 | 初请失业金Initial jobless claims初請失業金 | 按官方日历；实际、预期与修订值待核验Official calendar; actual, consensus and revisions awaiting verification按官方日曆；實際、預期與修訂值待核驗 |
| 10/9 10:00 | 密歇根大学消费者调查初值University of Michigan preliminary consumer survey密歇根大學消費者調查初值 | 按官方日历；实际值尚未公布Official calendar; actual not yet released按官方日曆；實際值尚未公佈 |
利率、美元和油价后续变化会影响成长股估值，但不预填尚未公布的经济数据或官员发言。财政部日值尚未作为当日收盘核验，网页快照与媒体早盘数值不替代日终官方记录。Later moves in rates, the dollar and oil can affect growth-stock valuations. Unreleased economic figures or official remarks are not filled in. Treasury daily data has not been verified as today’s close; intraday pages and early reporting do not replace official end-of-day records.利率、美元和油價後續變化會影響成長股估值，但不預填尚未公佈的經濟數據或官員發言。財政部日值尚未作為當日收盤核驗，網頁快照與媒體早盤數值不替代日終官方記錄。
New York Fed · October calendar · GSCPI · EIA · STEO · NYSE · trading calendar
来源、时间与盘后复盘Sources, timestamps and closing review來源、時間與盤後復盤
本页选取当日完整源报告的市场部分：大盘、宏观、新闻、一般性技术位和条件判断。数字与条件保留原稿口径。网页初次登记时间独立于源稿时间；正式公开上线时间保存在部署记录中。后续更正另记时间和原因，不覆盖冻结判断。This page publishes the market portion of the complete source report: broad-market conditions, macro releases, news, general technical levels and conditional calls. Figures and conditions retain their source definitions. Web registration is separate from source generation; first successful public deployment time is preserved in the publication record. Corrections record their time and reason without replacing frozen calls.本頁選取當日完整源報告的市場部分：大盤、宏觀、新聞、一般性技術位和條件判斷。數字與條件保留原稿口徑。網頁初次登記時間獨立於源稿時間；正式公開上線時間保存在部署記錄中。後續更正另記時間和原因，不覆蓋凍結判斷。
市场行情与技术计算来自源任务当次只读报价及完整日线；不以今天更晚的报价改写10:35快照。贸易实际值交叉核验BEA/Census与调查页面；Fed政策与事件日历核验官方来源。2年美债、DXY与油价页面时区不明的数值保留为源稿参考快照，未提升为同步官方报价。Market quotes and technical calculations come from the source task’s read-only quotes and complete daily bars. Later prices do not rewrite the 10:35 snapshot. Trade figures are cross-checked against BEA/Census and the survey page; Fed policy and the calendar use official sources. The 2-year yield, DXY and oil pages with unspecified timezones remain source-report references, not synchronized official quotes.市場行情與技術計算來自源任務當次只讀報價及完整日線；不以今天更晚的報價改寫10:35快照。貿易實際值交叉核驗BEA/Census與調查頁面；Fed政策與事件日曆核驗官方來源。2年美債、DXY與油價頁面時區不明的數值保留為源稿參考快照，未提升為同步官方報價。
盘后先复盘原稿生成后条件，再单列公开上线后条件，不能混成同一个事前样本。已发生上涨、内部未公开判断与公开后路径分别记录。条件不触发就列未触发，路径不足就列数据不足；不得移动门槛或把相关条件累计为独立胜率。The closing review separates conditions after internal source generation from those after public deployment. Already observed gains, unpublished internal calls and post-publication paths are distinct. Untriggered conditions remain not triggered; missing paths remain insufficient data. Thresholds do not move, and related conditions do not become independent accuracy samples.盤後先復盤原稿生成後條件，再單列公開上線後條件，不能混成同一個事前樣本。已發生上漲、內部未公開判斷與公開後路徑分別記錄。條件不觸發就列未觸發，路徑不足就列數據不足；不得移動門檻或把相關條件累計為獨立勝率。