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Evidence · Probability · Discipline

每日美股分析与预测复盘

按日期保留盘前判断与盘后复盘。原始阈值、条件与登记时间不因后续结果而改写;区分命中、未命中、未触发和数据不足。历史文章不是当前交易建议。

Dated pre-market and post-market analysis, with original calls preserved for review. Historical observations are not current trading recommendations.

· 盘前分析 · 源稿08:43:11 ET · 盘前分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-11-03|盘前分析 · 芯片带动QQQ修复,财报拖累限制反弹高度

唯一M1:QQQ偏涨;上午连续3根5分钟收盘严格高于681.09,随后午后至少1根达到689.88,正式收盘高于681.09。连续3根低于680.33即永久失效,截止今日16:00;未登记备用。包含18只标的、宏观事件和昨晚5家公司财报补核,保留真实公开时间。

Single M1: QQQ upside bias;3 consecutive morning5-minute closes strictly above681.09, followed by at least1 afternoon close reaching689.88, and official close above681.09.3 consecutive closes below680.33 permanently invalidate it; deadline today16:00, no backup registered. Covers18 symbols, macro events and5 prior-evening earnings follow-ups with actual publication timing.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:19:58 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-11-02|盘后分析 · M1错误:上午修复后回落,13:55失效

QQQ正式收681.09,原M1方向、午后路径和收盘目标错误,13:55失效;S1未按13:00时限触发。源P1为09:50,网站完整K线窗口P1为10:20。分别保留真实公开窗口,单列宏观、AI与重要财报事实,不新增价格预测。

QQQ officially closed681.09; original M1 direction, afternoon path and closing target failed, invalidated13:55. S1 did not trigger by13:00. Source P1 met09:50, website full-bar P1 met10:20. Actual disclosure windows remain separate; macro, AI and earnings facts are covered without new price forecasts.

· 早盘分析 · 源稿09:17:10 ET · 早盘分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-11-02|早盘分析 · QQQ反弹延续:油价回落与半导体修复,融资风险仍在

源M1于09:10:52登记,完整报告09:17:10完成:QQQ方向参照690.49,上午严格高于695、午后及收盘达到698.63;连续跌破690.49触发固定失效。S1单列。涵盖宏观排期、OpenAI融资、MRVL/LITE与EL,保留源稿及网站真实公开窗口。

Source M1 registered09:10:52; full report finished09:17:10: QQQ direction reference690.49, morning strictly above695 and afternoon/close reaching698.63; sustained closes below690.49 cause fixed invalidation. S1 is separate. Covers macro schedules, OpenAI financing, MRVL/LITE and EL, retaining actual source and website release windows.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:18:32 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-29|盘后分析 · 源早盘M1部分正确:方向对,午后路径与目标未到

QQQ正式收715.34,低于源参照716.29,但未达到713.59收盘目标和711.62午后路径;源M1部分正确、S1未触发。今天未在本站公开早盘页面,此处仅复盘源对话记录。单列Amazon、Intel等财报,不新增次日预测。

QQQ officially closed715.34, below source reference716.29 but missing closing target713.59 and afternoon path711.62. Source M1 partially correct; S1 untriggered. No morning page was published on this website today; this reviews the source-conversation record only. Amazon, Intel and other earnings are separate, without new next-day predictions.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:19:27 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-28|盘后分析 · M1部分正确:收涨达标,午后路径逾期

QQQ正式收725.61,原方向与收盘目标达到,午后路径在15:55前未达;M1部分正确、S1未触发。源P1于09:45确认,网站窗口P1于13:05确认。单列Fed与重要财报,不增加次日预测。

QQQ officially closed725.61, meeting original direction and closing target, but the afternoon path missed15:55. M1 partially correct; S1 untriggered. Source P1 confirmed09:45, website P1 at13:05. Fed and major earnings are separate, without new next-day predictions.

· 早盘分析 · 源稿09:22:55 ET · 早盘分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-28|早盘分析 · QQQ偏涨:芯片带动反弹,Fed后检验上涨能否保住

原M1于09:13登记,完整源稿09:22:55完成:QQQ以721.25为方向参照,收盘目标≥725.26,上午与午后路径及失效条件分别固定;S1单独评分。覆盖贸易数据、AI需求与融资、重要财报,分开源稿与网站公开窗口。

Original M1 registered09:13; complete source finished09:22:55: QQQ direction reference721.25, closing target≥725.26, with separate fixed morning / afternoon paths and invalidation. S1 is scored separately. Covers trade data, AI demand and financing, and major earnings; source and website release windows remain distinct.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:23:34 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-27|盘后分析 · M1错误,11:05失效:备用命中不抵消主判断失败

QQQ正式收721.25,原M1方向错误、午后路径未达到,11:05确认失效。S1仅独立命中;网站上线前的午前回吐不计公开检验成绩。单列宏观及HOOD、Visa、Seagate财报,不作次日前瞻。

QQQ officially closed 721.25. Original M1 direction was wrong, its afternoon path was unmet and invalidation confirmed at 11:05. S1 was separately correct; the morning fade before website release is excluded from website results. Macro and HOOD, Visa, Seagate earnings are separate, without a next-session outlook.

· 早盘分析 · 源稿10:09:46 ET · 早盘分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-27|早盘分析 · QQQ剩余时段震荡偏弱:午前回吐,午后反弹受限

源稿10:09:46 ET完成;原M1于09:58冻结,以715.25为参照,正式收盘目标≤714.50,突破718.19的失效及备用S1单列。分开源对话与网站公开窗口,覆盖耐用品、消费者信心、AI融资及重要财报。

Source completed10:09:46 ET; original M1 frozen at09:58, reference715.25, official closing target≤714.50, with invalidation above718.19 and backup S1 separate. Source and website release windows remain distinct, covering durable goods, consumer confidence, AI financing and major earnings.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:15:29 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-26|盘后分析 · M1原条件完整达到:科技修复,分化与遗漏仍保留

QQQ正式收712.20。原M1方向、上午触及与午后确认均达到且未失效;S1未触发。源对话与网站09:55后窗口分开,不新增独立样本;复盘达拉斯、AI融资新证据和财报状态,不作次日前瞻。

QQQ officially closed712.20. Original M1 direction, morning touch and afternoon confirmations were met without invalidation; S1 did not trigger. Source and website windows after09:55 remain separate, not extra independent samples. Dallas, AI financing evidence and earnings status reviewed, without a next-session outlook.

· 早盘分析 · 源稿09:37:31 ET · 早盘分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-26|早盘分析 · QQQ震荡偏涨:上午上试709.30,午后保留707.00

完整源稿09:37:31 ET完成。原M1与S1在09:30前公开冻结:QQQ收盘≥707.00,上午触及709.30、午后连续确认;跌破704.40的失效规则单列。保留网站真实公开窗口,覆盖CFNAI、Anthropic S-1、AI融资风险与当日财报。

Complete source finished09:37:31 ET. Original M1 and S1 released and frozen before09:30: QQQ close≥707.00, morning touch709.30 and sustained afternoon confirmation; invalidation below704.40 is separate. Actual website release window retained, with CFNAI, Anthropic S-1, AI financing risk and earnings coverage.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:17:23.246798 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-23|盘后分析 · M1错误并失效:反弹没有达到原收盘目标

QQQ正式收704.40。原M1于10:55失效,S1触发但未命中;源对话U1目标也未达到。分开来源与网站公开窗口,复盘PMI价格分项遗漏,并核验AXP、SLB及Infosys财报。

QQQ officially closed704.40. Original M1 invalidated at10:55; S1 triggered but missed, and source-conversation U1 also missed its target. Source and website windows remain separate. Review of the omitted PMI price component and AXP, SLB and Infosys earnings.

· 早盘分析 · 源稿09:37:39 ET · 早盘分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-23|早盘分析 · QQQ偏跌:早盘有限反抽,午后再承压

完整源稿09:37:39 ET。保留M1:QQQ正式收盘低于701.90,早盘有限反抽、午后再承压;704.47持续确认失效,S1单列。补齐WDC、BE现金质量及AXP财报,网站公开前走势不计网站成绩。

Complete source09:37:39 ET. Retain M1: QQQ official close below701.90 after limited early repair and renewed afternoon pressure; sustained confirmation above704.47 invalidates it, with S1 separate. WDC, BE cash quality and AXP earnings included; pre-website-publication moves do not count toward website results.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:19:31.539025 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-22|盘后分析 · 科技承压:M1方向与原路径达到,备用未触发

QQQ正式收704.47,跌2.86%。M1方向和三步路径达到,原失效未出现;S1未触发。网站09:14:37.868283 ET公开回执补齐时间证据,保留价格与成交量核验局限,并单列WDC、BE等重要财报。

QQQ officially closed at704.47, down2.86%. M1 direction and all three path steps met, without invalidation; S1 did not trigger. The website09:14:37.868283 ET receipt supplies publication evidence. Price and volume limits remain, with WDC, BE and other important earnings separate.

· 盘前分析 · 源稿08:44:27 ET · 盘前分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-22|盘前分析 · QQQ偏跌:低开后有限修复,午后再承压

源稿08:44:27 ET,行情截至08:40。M1看QQQ正式收盘低于719.71,路径为低开、早盘有限修复、午后再承压;失效与备用S1单列。补齐META、TSLA和LRCX财报,不包含个人账户内容。

Source08:44:27 ET, quotes through08:40. M1 expects QQQ’s official close below719.71 after a lower open, limited early repair and renewed afternoon pressure; invalidation and backup S1 are separate. META, TSLA and LRCX earnings are included, with no personal-account content.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:10:27 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-21|盘后分析 · 芯片领涨:方向得到验证,完整路径成绩仍待核验

QQQ正式收725.20。09:28补充M1方向正确、价格路径符合,因公开时间及分钟数据质量缺项,完整成绩列资料不足。网站原H1达到、H2价格条件符合但完整性待核验、H3未触发;不合并为整体命中。

QQQ officially closed at725.20. The09:28 supplement M1 had correct direction and satisfied price-path conditions, but missing publication timing and minute-data quality leave its full score insufficient. Website H1 met; H2 price conditions met but completeness is unverified; H3 did not trigger. These are not combined into an overall hit.

· 盘前分析 · 源稿08:51:19 ET · 盘前分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-21|盘前分析 · 芯片领修复,但大型科技仍分化

源稿08:51:19 ET:NVDA与芯片盘前走强,MSFT、GOOGL、META及NFLX拖累。H1看QQQ收高于717.63;H2/H3保留原始同步确认门槛,只检验今天16:00常规收盘。

Source08:51:19 ET: NVDA and chips strengthen premarket while MSFT, GOOGL, META and NFLX weigh. H1 expects QQQ to close above717.63; H2/H3 retain their original synchronous-confirmation thresholds, ending only at today’s16:00 regular close.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:11:00 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-20|盘后分析 · 科技反弹未守住:H1达到,H2未达到,H3未触发

仅复盘今天早盘原假设:QQQ收717.63,H1达到;H2于10:45完成确认但QQQ、SMH未守住门槛;H3最多连续3次,未触发。非科技与小盘更强,不新增次日预测。

Review only today’s original morning hypotheses: QQQ closed at717.63, meeting H1; H2 confirmed at10:45 but QQQ and SMH lost their thresholds; H3 reached only3 consecutive checks and did not trigger. Non-tech and small caps outperformed; no next-day forecasts.

· 盘前分析 · 源稿08:43:20 ET · 盘前分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-20|盘前分析 · 科技偏弱:芯片承压,住房走弱与债息回落并存

源稿08:43:20 ET:SPY −0.32%、QQQ −0.74%、SMH −1.66%。新屋开工弱于预期,油价与VIX上升;核对NVDA订单与OpenAI拟募资,H1–H3仅预测今天16:00收盘。

Source08:43:20 ET: SPY −0.32%, QQQ −0.74%, SMH −1.66%. Housing starts miss expectations, oil and VIX rise; review NVDA orders and proposed OpenAI fundraising. H1–H3 cover only today’s16:00 close.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:14:08 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-19|盘后分析 · 反弹判断达到,强修复未确认:H1达到,H2与H3未触发

SPY收766.60(+0.44%)、QQQ +1.21%、SMH +1.61%,RSP −0.33%。H1达到;H2/H3未触发。仅复盘当天原假设、宏观与公司消息,不新增未来预测。

SPY closed at 766.60 (+0.44%), QQQ +1.21%, SMH +1.61%, RSP −0.33%. H1 met; H2/H3 were not triggered. Review of today’s original hypotheses, macro facts and company news only; no new future forecasts.

· 盘前分析 · 源稿09:03:21 ET · 盘前分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-19|盘前分析 · 跌后反弹能否保持:芯片领涨,微软与广度仍分化

源稿09:03:21 ET:SPY盘前+0.47%、QQQ+1.30%、SMH+3.05%。油价与VIX回落,债息略升;关注AI供电、融资与10:00 NAHB。H1–H3原门槛仅检验今天16:00收盘。

Source 09:03:21 ET: SPY premarket +0.47%, QQQ +1.30%, SMH +3.05%. Oil and VIX ease while yields edge up; watch AI power, financing and 10:00 NAHB. Original H1–H3 thresholds apply only through today’s 16:00 close.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:19:22 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-16|盘后分析 · 修复判断未达到:H1未命中,H2未触发,H3触发并达到

只复盘今天H1–H3:SPY收763.23,宽基修复判断未达到;科技与芯片转强未触发;偏弱条件10:20确认、收盘达到。保留原价位与真实时间,不输出次日方向。

Review only today’s H1–H3: SPY closed at 763.23, missing the broad-market recovery call; joint technology and chip strength did not trigger; weakness confirmed at 10:20 and met its closing targets. Original levels and actual times are preserved, with no next-session direction.

· 盘前分析 · 源稿08:58:08 ET · 盘前分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-16|盘前分析 · 宽基略偏强、科技仍分化:用三条固定假设检验修复

源稿08:58:08 ET:SPY盘前+0.16%、QQQ−0.23%、SMH−1.12%;进口成本偏热,AI融资与出口监管风险并存。H1–H3固定门槛仅检验今天16:00 ET收盘;09:15数据在源稿生成时尚未公布。

Source 08:58:08 ET: SPY premarket +0.16%, QQQ −0.23%, SMH −1.12%. Import costs are firm, with AI financing and export-regulation risks. Fixed H1–H3 thresholds are evaluated only through today’s 16:00 ET close; the 09:15 release was not yet available when the source was generated.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:11:48 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-15|盘后分析 · 早跌后修复:H1达到,H2与H3均未触发

只复盘当天H1–H3:QQQ收728.00,H1达到;芯片共同修复与同步弱势持续均未触发。SPY、等权及小盘收涨,早盘“大盘偏弱”措辞过于保守。保留原门槛与真实时间,不给次日方向。

Review only today’s H1–H3: QQQ closed at 728.00, meeting H1; joint chip recovery and synchronized persistent weakness did not trigger. SPY, equal-weight and small-cap proxies rose, making the morning’s broad-market weakness wording too conservative. Original thresholds and actual times remain unchanged; no next-session direction.

· 盘前分析 · 源稿08:44:03 ET · 盘前分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-15|盘前分析 · PPI偏热、科技承压:强AI需求能否带来价格修复?

源稿08:44:03 ET:PPI与零售高于共识,但08:38现金美债收益率低于前收;TSMC与Anthropic需求证据增强,科技盘前仍弱。保留H1–H3固定门槛,今日16:00 ET检验,不预测次日方向。

Source 08:44:03 ET: PPI and retail sales exceed consensus, but 08:38 cash Treasury yields are below their previous closes. TSMC and Anthropic strengthen demand evidence while technology remains weak premarket. Preserve fixed H1–H3 thresholds for evaluation today at 16:00 ET, without forecasting the next session.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:23:06 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-14|盘后分析 · 科技弱于大盘:H1达到,H3触发后达到,H2未触发

只复盘今天早盘H1–H3:QQQ比SPY多跌约0.89个百分点;同步修复未触发,弱势延续触发后达到收盘目标。源稿10:20与网站公开后10:25的确认时间分开记录;不新增次日预测。

Review only today’s morning H1–H3: QQQ fell about0.89 percentage points more than SPY. Joint repair never triggered; continued weakness triggered and met its closing targets. Source confirmation at10:20 and website-public confirmation at10:25 are recorded separately. No next-session predictions.

· 早盘分析 · 源稿09:25:05 ET · 早盘分析 · 当日待检验条件

2026-10-14|早盘分析 · 核心CPI超预期:科技承压,强业绩不等于半导体修复

核心CPI超共识、利率与美元走强;ASML强业绩未转化为盘前板块支撑。保留H1–H3原编号及门槛,今日16:00 ET核验;报价是09:18–09:19盘前快照,不是即时行情。

Core CPI exceeds consensus as yields and the dollar strengthen; strong ASML earnings did not translate into premarket sector support. Original H1–H3 IDs and thresholds remain fixed for evaluation today at 16:00 ET; quotes are the 09:18–09:19 premarket snapshot, not live prices.

· 盘后分析 · 源稿16:21:09 ET · 盘后分析 · 仅复盘当天原假设

2026-10-13|盘后分析 · 科技仍弱,芯片盘中修复:H1未命中,H2与H3未触发

只复盘当天H1–H3:科技相对弱势达到门槛,半导体相对弱势未达门槛;联合修复与弱势扩散均未触发。分开源稿与网站公开后的窗口,宏观、新闻与收盘行情只作为解释依据。

Review only today’s H1–H3: technology relative weakness met its threshold, but semiconductor relative weakness did not. Neither joint repair nor spreading weakness triggered. Source and post-publication windows are separate; macro, news and closing prices explain the review.

|早盘分析

2026-10-13|早盘分析 · 科技与半导体偏弱,大盘分化:三条当日检验线

科技与半导体偏弱,大盘分化:三条当日检验线

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|盘后分析

2026-10-12|盘后分析 · 微软领涨,半导体承压:大盘尚未全面转弱,也未完成修复

微软领涨,半导体承压: 大盘尚未全面转弱,也未完成修复

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|早盘分析

2026-10-12|早盘分析 · 大盘震荡、半导体承压:油价反弹与AI融资叙事的三条检验线

大盘震荡、半导体承压:油价反弹与AI融资叙事的三条检验线

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|盘后分析

2026-10-09|盘后分析 · 大盘反弹,半导体修复失败:平台股领涨不等于AI全线转强

大盘反弹,半导体修复失败:平台股领涨不等于AI全线转强

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|早盘分析

2026-10-09|早盘分析 · AI修复反弹,油价缓解:10点数据后能否延续?

AI修复反弹,油价缓解:10点数据后能否延续?

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|盘后分析

2026-10-08|盘后分析 · 科技领跌、利率回落:弱势基准成立,进一步下破未确认

科技领跌、利率回落:弱势基准成立,进一步下破未确认

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|早盘分析

2026-10-08|早盘分析 · 油价跳升、半导体偏弱:低初请之后,反弹仍须证明修复

油价跳升、半导体偏弱:低初请之后,反弹仍须证明修复

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|盘后分析

2026-10-07|盘后分析 · 偏弱震荡获确认,半导体拖后腿:鹰派纪要之后,修复仍待验证

偏弱震荡获确认,半导体拖后腿:鹰派纪要之后,修复仍待验证

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|盘前分析

2026-10-07|盘前分析 · 债息与油价回升,半导体偏弱:等待修复确认与Fed纪要

债息与油价回升,半导体偏弱:等待修复确认与Fed纪要

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|盘后分析

2026-10-06|盘后分析 · 指数上涨,半导体未确认:偏强震荡不是全面突破

指数上涨,半导体未确认:偏强震荡不是全面突破

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|早盘分析

2026-10-06|早盘分析 · 偏强震荡,上涨分化:观察支撑与突破确认

偏强震荡,上涨分化:观察支撑与突破确认

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|盘后分析

2026-09-25|盘后分析 · 修复不是突破:微软领涨,融资与期权覆盖需重新审视

维持NVDA核心,周一先观察;不继续增加AMZN融资仓,不机械滚动Covered Call。

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|盘前分析

2026-09-25|盘前分析 · 半导体领涨,偏强修复:等待确认,不追加杠杆

先持有观察,偏强修复,暂不加杠杆。

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|盘后分析

2026-09-24|盘后分析 · 低开后修复,利率压力未退:减债之后,不急着再加杠杆

今日结论:早间防守判断低估了午后修复;保留核心、暂停追加杠杆,明日观察反弹能否延续。

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|盘前分析

2026-09-24|盘前分析 · 就业仍强,峰会预期能否抵消利率压力?

偏防守:保留核心,不追加杠杆;反弹先看关键价位能否修复。

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|盘后分析

2026-09-23|盘后分析 · 长债升至5.11%,反弹遭遇压力测试:为什么我仍试多GOOGL?

大盘从中性偏多转为谨慎;个股试反弹,不等于押注市场全面上涨。

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|盘后分析

2026-09-22|盘后分析 · 纳指继续走强,大盘却停步:反弹进入验证期

从短线偏多下调为中性偏多:科技仍强,大盘等待扩散。

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|盘后分析

2026-09-21|盘后分析 · 油价与长债降温,反弹能走多远?

短线偏多,科技相对占优;大盘反弹仍需次日确认。

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|盘后分析

2026-09-18|盘后分析 · 美联储加息,美股为何仍有韧性?|认知优势

美联储加息,美股为何仍有韧性? 大盘下一步,先看债券与盈利

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|盘后分析

2026-09-11|盘后分析 · 通胀未退,科技股反弹能否持续?|认知优势

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