市场Dashboard：约09:00盘前截面Market Dashboard: the pre-open snapshot around09:00市場Dashboard：約09:00盤前截面
报价是源稿约09:00 ET的盘前最后成交，不是阅读时行情。RSP为08:54:08、IWM为08:57:35，时效较弱。涨跌相对10/9正式调整收盘，ETF美元价格不等于指数点位。Quotes are the source’s pre-market last trades around09:00 ET, not live prices when reading. RSP is older at08:54:08 and IWM at08:57:35. Changes use the10/9 official adjusted close; ETF dollar prices are not index levels.報價是源稿約09:00 ET的盤前最後成交，不是閲讀時行情。RSP為08:54:08、IWM為08:57:35，時效較弱。漲跌相對10/9正式調整收盤，ETF美元價格不等於指數點位。
| 标的Symbol標的 | 盘前参考／美元Pre-market reference / USD盤前參考／美元 | 涨跌Change漲跌 | 10/9正式收盘10/9 official close10/9正式收盤 | 成交时间ETTrade time ET成交時間ET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 778.82 | +0.03% | 778.57 | 09:00:07 |
| QQQ | 750.14 | -0.15% | 751.27 | 09:00:15 |
| SMH | 598.70 | -0.77% | 603.33 | 09:00:01 |
| SOXX | 553.87 | -0.99% | 559.40 | 09:00:00 |
| RSP | 213.38 | +0.16% | 213.04 | 08:54:08 |
| IWM | 278.62 | -0.11% | 278.94 | 08:57:35 |
| NVDA | 228.38 | -0.39% | 229.28 | 09:00:11 |
| MSFT | 538.97 | +0.73% | 535.07 | 09:00:19 |
| GOOGL | 351.03 | -0.18% | 351.66 | 09:00:00 |
| AMZN | 262.10 | -0.13% | 262.43 | 09:00:13 |
| AVGO | 358.65 | -0.80% | 361.54 | 09:00:06 |
| HOOD | 109.30 | +0.26% | 109.02 | 08:59:37 |
SPY略涨而QQQ与半导体偏弱，MSFT相对更强；RSP和IWM只是广度代理，尚无今日涨跌家数、A/D或成交量广度，不宣称全面风险偏好恢复。SPX/NDX缓存虽今天更新，其成交时间仍10/9，排除作今日实时现货指数。SPY is slightly firmer while QQQ and semiconductors weaken, with MSFT relatively stronger. RSP and IWM are breadth proxies only; today’s advance/decline counts and volume breadth are unavailable, so broad risk appetite is not confirmed. SPX/NDX caches update today but retain10/9 trade timestamps and are excluded as live cash-index evidence.SPY略漲而QQQ與半導體偏弱，MSFT相對更強；RSP和IWM只是廣度代理，尚無今日漲跌家數、A/D或成交量廣度，不宣稱全面風險偏好恢復。SPX/NDX緩存雖今天更新，其成交時間仍10/9，排除作今日實時現貨指數。
10/9正式收盘已在本次取得：NVDA229.28、SPY778.57、QQQ751.27、SMH603.33。前次文章暂定末笔分别229.34、778.53、751.24、603.49，保留原文与原门槛，不用新的正式价格改写旧预测。The10/9 official closes are now available: NVDA229.28, SPY778.57, QQQ751.27 and SMH603.33. The preceding article’s provisional last trades were229.34,778.53,751.24 and603.49 respectively. Its text and frozen levels remain unchanged; new official prices do not rewrite old forecasts.10/9正式收盤已在本次取得：NVDA229.28、SPY778.57、QQQ751.27、SMH603.33。前次文章暫定末筆分別229.34、778.53、751.24、603.49，保留原文與原門檻，不用新的正式價格改寫舊預測。
宏观：股票开市、债市假日，CPI尚未发布Macro: equities open, a bond holiday, and CPI still pending宏觀：股票開市、債市假日，CPI尚未發佈
| 指标／时间Indicator / time指標／時間 | 实际与前值Actual and prior實際與前值 | 预期／修订与边界Consensus / revisions and limits預期／修訂與邊界 |
|---|---|---|
| Treasury 10/9 CMTTreasury10/9 CMTTreasury 10/9 CMT | 2Y4.80% / 10Y5.24% / 30Y5.60% | 官方日值，不是10/12实时；今日债市假日Official daily values, not10/12 live yields; bond-market holiday today官方日值，不是10/12實時；今日債市假日 |
| Fed 9/16已生效决议Fed decision effective9/16Fed 9/16已生效決議 | 加息25bp至3.75–4.00%Hike25bp to3.75–4.00%加息25bp至3.75–4.00% | 今天无新决议；10/28 14:00决议、14:30记者会No new decision today;10/28 decision14:00, press conference14:30今天無新決議；10/28 14:00決議、14:30記者會 |
| Michigan 10/9 10:00初值Michigan preliminary10/9 10:00Michigan 10/9 10:00初值 | 信心46.3，9月最终48.1；1Y4.7%、长期3.5%，前值4.6%／3.4%Sentiment46.3, final month9:48.1;1Y4.7%, long-run3.5%, prior4.6% /3.4%信心46.3，9月最終48.1；1Y4.7%、長期3.5%，前值4.6%／3.4% | 统一共识未知；未核验额外修订；通胀预期不是CPIUnified consensus unknown; no additional revision verified; inflation expectations are not CPI統一共識未知；未核驗額外修訂；通脹預期不是CPI |
| 8月CPI，最新已发布Month8 CPI, latest released8月CPI，最新已發佈 | 总体MoM0.4%／YoY3.4%；核心MoM0.3%／YoY2.4%Headline MoM0.4% / YoY3.4%; core MoM0.3% / YoY2.4%總體MoM0.4%／YoY3.4%；核心MoM0.3%／YoY2.4% | 环比季调、同比未季调；未发现新修订，不是9月结果MoM seasonally adjusted, YoY unadjusted; no new revision identified; not month9 results環比季調、同比未季調；未發現新修訂，不是9月結果 |
| 9月CPI：10/14 08:30 ETMonth9 CPI:10/14 08:30 ET9月CPI：10/14 08:30 ET | 待发布，实际未知Pending, actual unknown待發布，實際未知 | Reuters报道YoY共识：总体3.7%、核心2.5%；MoM共识未核验Reuters-reported YoY consensus: headline3.7%, core2.5%; MoM consensus unverifiedReuters報道YoY共識：總體3.7%、核心2.5%；MoM共識未核驗 |
| DXY | Reuters定性：美元接近18个月高位；同步DXY值未知Reuters qualitative report: dollar near an18-month high; synchronized DXY unknownReuters定性：美元接近18個月高位；同步DXY值未知 | 源稿精确数值及更新时间未获独立复核，不用于同步行情比较Exact source-cited value and update time not independently verified; excluded from synchronized quote comparisons源稿精確數值及更新時間未獲獨立複核，不用於同步行情比較 |
| 油价Oil油價 | 源稿引用FE报道：Brent105.75／WTI92.80；Reuters盘前稿Brent >106Source-cited FE report:Brent105.75 / WTI92.80; Reuters pre-open report Brent >106源稿引用FE報道：Brent105.75／WTI92.80；Reuters盤前稿Brent >106 | 新闻截面不同，直达页访问受限、可读检索正文确认油价；非同步实时值或正式结算Different news snapshots; direct access limited, readable search text confirms oil prices; not synchronized live quotes or official settlements新聞截面不同，直達頁訪問受限、可讀檢索正文確認油價；非同步實時值或正式結算 |
| VIX | 15.50，10/12 08:51:16 ET快照15.50,10/12 08:51:16 ET snapshot15.50，10/12 08:51:16 ET快照 | 非最终结算；与旧14.83快照不可计算严格收盘涨幅Not final settlement; no strict close-to-now change against the older14.83 snapshot非最終結算；與舊14.83快照不可計算嚴格收盤漲幅 |
今天正常09:30–16:00 ET股票交易。SIFMA建议美元固定收益市场全天休市，各机构自行决定；Fed原定统计延至10/13。不能用缓存债息充当今天现金债券实时交易，也不把没有发布的CPI当作已经落地。Equities trade normally09:30–16:00 ET today. SIFMA recommends a full-day USD fixed-income closure, with institutions deciding independently; scheduled Fed statistics are deferred to10/13. Cached yields are not today’s live cash-bond trades, and unreleased CPI is not an observed result.今天正常09:30–16:00 ET股票交易。SIFMA建議美元固定收益市場全天休市，各機構自行決定；Fed原定統計延至10/13。不能用緩存債息充當今天現金債券實時交易，也不把沒有發佈的CPI當作已經落地。
NYSE交易日历NYSE trading calendarNYSE交易日曆 · SIFMA日程SIFMA calendarSIFMA日程 · Fed日历Fed calendarFed日曆 · Treasury官方日期表Official Treasury dated tableTreasury官方日期表 · Fed 9/16原文Original Fed9/16 statementFed 9/16原文 · BLS CPI发布BLS CPI releaseBLS CPI發佈 · Michigan官方Official MichiganMichigan官方
Reuters美元报道Reuters dollar reportReuters美元報道 · FE油价报道FE oil reportFE油價報道 · Reuters盘前市场与共识Reuters pre-open market and consensusReuters盤前市場與共識
AI叙事：披露口径、并购洽谈与资本约束AI narrative: disclosure definitions, deal talks and capital constraintsAI敍事：披露口徑、併購洽談與資本約束
重新核验Reuters 10/8全文：OpenAI 9月年化收入接近$50B，低于此前对同一9月示意的接近$70B；匿名来源将差异主要归于与Anthropic可比口径。OpenAI未回应。前次若只解释为“当前50、年底70”，不足以覆盖同一月份的披露差异，本稿补正，但不改旧预测。Rechecking the full Reuters10/8 report: OpenAI’s month9 annualized revenue was near$50B, below the near$70B previously indicated for the same month9. Anonymous sources mainly attribute the gap to comparability with Anthropic; OpenAI did not respond. The preceding explanation of current50 versus year-end70 did not fully address the same-month disclosure gap. This article corrects that explanation without altering old forecasts.重新核驗Reuters 10/8全文：OpenAI 9月年化收入接近$50B，低於此前對同一9月示意的接近$70B；匿名來源將差異主要歸於與Anthropic可比口徑。OpenAI未回應。前次若只解釋為“當前50、年底70”，不足以覆蓋同一月份的披露差異，本稿補正，但不改舊預測。
年化run-rate不是已实现全年收入，不能认定实际营收突然损失$20B、已违约或取消GPU订单。更可检验的风险是客户融资、付款、资本开支执行与披露可信度；增长目标也不能取消这些疑问。Annualized run rate is not realized full-year revenue; it does not establish a sudden$20B actual-revenue loss, default or canceled GPU orders. More testable risks involve financing, payments, capex execution and disclosure credibility; growth targets do not remove these questions.年化run-rate不是已實現全年收入，不能認定實際營收突然損失$20B、已違約或取消GPU訂單。更可檢驗的風險是客户融資、付款、資本開支執行與披露可信度；增長目標也不能取消這些疑問。
Reuters OpenAI原文转载Syndicated original Reuters OpenAI reportReuters OpenAI原文轉載
| 公司／消息Company / news公司／消息 | 证据级别Evidence level證據級別 | 市场解释与限制Market interpretation and limits市場解釋與限制 |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA / Reflection AI | Reuters 10/10转述FT：早期投资、收购或团队合作讨论；Reuters未独立核实，公司未确认Reuters10/10 relays FT: early investment, acquisition or team-related talks; not independently verified by Reuters or confirmed by companiesReuters 10/10轉述FT：早期投資、收購或團隊合作討論；Reuters未獨立核實，公司未確認 | 潜在生态催化及融资关联风险，并非成交公告或新增确定订单Potential ecosystem catalyst and linked financing risk, not a completed-deal announcement or confirmed new order潛在生態催化及融資關聯風險，並非成交公告或新增確定訂單 |
| AMZN / Decart | Reuters转述WSJ：10/11洽谈约$7B收购；当前正文22:06更新，双方未确认成交Reuters relays WSJ:10/11 talks for an approximately$7B acquisition; current text updated22:06, no confirmed dealReuters轉述WSJ：10/11洽談約$7B收購；當前正文22:06更新，雙方未確認成交 | 视频模型／AWS机会与投入成本并存；谈判可失败，不计确定EPS增量Video-model / AWS opportunity alongside spending costs; talks can fail and no definite EPS increment is assumed視頻模型／AWS機會與投入成本並存；談判可失敗，不計確定EPS增量 |
| AVGO | Reuters 10/12：Hock Tan表示晶圆／内存瓶颈缓解，资本将是主要约束；直达页受限，检索正文可读Reuters10/12: Hock Tan says wafer / memory bottlenecks are easing and capital will be the main constraint; direct access limited, search text readableReuters 10/12：Hock Tan表示晶圓／內存瓶頸緩解，資本將是主要約束；直達頁受限，檢索正文可讀 | CEO观点，不是公司下调指引、客户已违约或订单取消CEO assessment, not a guidance cut, established customer default or canceled orderCEO觀點，不是公司下調指引、客户已違約或訂單取消 |
| MSFT | Reuters 10/12报道Brad Smith倡议AI安全监管；原采访直接访问受限Reuters10/12 reports Brad Smith’s advocacy for AI safety regulation; direct original-interview access limitedReuters 10/12報道Brad Smith倡議AI安全監管；原採訪直接訪問受限 | 政策主张，不是法规已生效或盈利指引Policy advocacy, not enacted law or earnings guidance政策主張，不是法規已生效或盈利指引 |
| GOOGL | 未取得可核验的新重大公司指引；10/7诉讼报道是旧消息No verified new major company guidance obtained; litigation reporting dated10/7 is older news未取得可核驗的新重大公司指引；10/7訴訟報道是舊消息 | 不把旧报道包装成今天新催化Do not repackage older reporting as a new catalyst today不把舊報道包裝成今天新催化 |
| HOOD | 公司确认10/27盘后财报、17:00 ET电话会Company confirms10/27 after-close earnings and17:00 ET call公司確認10/27盤後財報、17:00 ET電話會 | 事件前波动与披露风险，不预测尚未发布的结果Pre-event volatility and disclosure risk; unreleased results are not forecast as facts事件前波動與披露風險，不預測尚未發佈的結果 |
Reuters NVDAReuters NVDAReuters NVDA · Reuters AMZNReuters AMZNReuters AMZN · Reuters AVGOReuters AVGOReuters AVGO · Reuters MSFTReuters MSFTReuters MSFT · HOOD公司公告HOOD company releaseHOOD公司公告
地缘政治：供应路径与油价，不把停火消息当风险解除Geopolitics: supply routes and oil, not an automatic ceasefire all-clear地緣政治：供應路徑與油價，不把停火消息當風險解除
Reuters盘前稿报道周末沙特机场遭袭及俄乌能源设施停火安排，但执行细节不清。Aramco 10/12官方讲话强调地区能源设施与霍尔木兹贸易受阻的供应风险，并研究替代出口路径。公司领导的判断不是独立核验的全球供应统计，也不是油价必涨的预测。Reuters’ pre-open report discusses a weekend Saudi airport attack and a Russia–Ukraine energy-facility ceasefire arrangement with unclear implementation details. Aramco’s official10/12 speech emphasizes supply risks from regional infrastructure and disrupted Hormuz trade, and studies alternative export routes. Management’s assessment is not an independently verified global supply statistic or a certain oil-price forecast.Reuters盤前稿報道週末沙特機場遭襲及俄烏能源設施停火安排，但執行細節不清。Aramco 10/12官方講話強調地區能源設施與霍爾木茲貿易受阻的供應風險，並研究替代出口路徑。公司領導的判斷不是獨立核驗的全球供應統計，也不是油價必漲的預測。
传导推演：油价高位可能影响消费、通胀预期、利率与长久期科技估值；美元偏强亦可能放大金融条件压力。俄乌安排不能直接消除中东运输风险。未核验新的芯片出口许可或真实订单，不把峰会气氛当政策批准。Transmission assessment: elevated oil can affect consumption, inflation expectations, rates and long-duration tech valuations, while a stronger dollar can tighten financial conditions. Russia–Ukraine arrangements do not directly resolve Middle Eastern transport risks. No new chip export license or real order is verified; summit sentiment is not policy approval.傳導推演：油價高位可能影響消費、通脹預期、利率與長久期科技估值；美元偏強亦可能放大金融條件壓力。俄烏安排不能直接消除中東運輸風險。未核驗新的芯片出口許可或真實訂單，不把峯會氣氛當政策批准。
Aramco 10/12官方讲话Aramco official10/12 speechAramco 10/12官方講話 · Reuters地缘与市场报道Reuters geopolitical and market reportReuters地緣與市場報道
技术刻度：完整日线与真实盘前K线分开Technical measures: separate completed daily and genuine pre-market bars技術刻度：完整日線與真實盤前K線分開
| 标的Symbol標的 | 20MA／50MA20MA /50MA20MA／50MA | 10/9低／高10/9 low / high10/9低／高 | 盘前完整K线低／高Completed pre-market low / high盤前完整K線低／高 | 前日量比Prior-session volume ratio前日量比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 767.98 / 767.57 | 775.14 / 779.42 | 778.28 / 781.00 | 0.49 |
| QQQ | 737.54 / 724.52 | 748.37 / 752.87 | 749.06 / 754.63 | 0.62 |
| SMH | 597.06 / 578.24 | 601.38 / 615.55 | 597.34 / 606.25 | 0.86 |
| RSP | 211.50 / 216.30 | 212.21 / 213.29 | 212.97 / 213.49 | 0.85 |
| NVDA | 226.73 / 222.08 | 229.11 / 233.92 | 227.95 / 230.35 | 0.78 |
| MSFT | 510.10 / 500.45 | 526.24 / 537.22 | 535.50 / 538.20 | 0.83 |
| GOOGL | 345.92 / 346.25 | 350.31 / 354.70 | 349.53 / 354.10 | 0.65 |
| AMZN | 252.02 / 259.10 | 256.00 / 262.80 | 261.54 / 264.65 | 0.95 |
| AVGO | 355.25 / 371.87 | 361.10 / 366.63 | 358.45 / 364.84 | 0.69 |
| HOOD | 114.50 / 107.23 | 106.70 / 109.85 | 108.89 / 110.99 | 0.62 |
均线采用6/1至10/9的92个完整常规日线；量比是10/9成交量÷此前20个完整交易日均量，不是盘前量比。盘前范围截至09:00，排除插值、无量和未完成K线。RSP 60根中51根缺真实成交信息，不用来制造持续确认。MSFT 09:00:19末笔538.97高于已完成K线高538.20，单笔不等于6根确认。Averages use92 completed regular-session daily bars from6/1 to10/9. Volume ratio is10/9 volume divided by the preceding20 complete sessions’ average, not pre-market volume. Pre-market ranges end09:00 and exclude interpolated, zero-volume and unfinished bars. Of RSP’s60 bars,51 lack genuine trade information and do not create sustained confirmations. MSFT’s09:00:19 last trade538.97 exceeds completed-bar high538.20; a single trade is not6-bar confirmation.均線採用6/1至10/9的92個完整常規日線；量比是10/9成交量÷此前20個完整交易日均量，不是盤前量比。盤前範圍截至09:00，排除插值、無量和未完成K線。RSP 60根中51根缺真實成交信息，不用來製造持續確認。MSFT 09:00:19末筆538.97高於已完成K線高538.20，單筆不等於6根確認。
NVDA仍高于20/50MA，但盘前失去周五低位；AMZN高于两均线，20MA仍低于50MA，不称金叉完成。GOOGL两线接近，AVGO仍低于50MA，HOOD在20MA下、50MA上。MSFT盘前越过537.22，常规时段仍须重新检验；没有标的因此必涨或已见顶。NVDA remains above its20/50MA but loses Friday’s low before the open. AMZN is above both averages while its20MA remains below its50MA, so a completed golden cross is not claimed. GOOGL’s averages are close, AVGO stays below its50MA, and HOOD is below its20MA but above its50MA. MSFT crosses537.22 pre-open but needs a fresh regular-session test; none of this establishes a certain rally or top.NVDA仍高於20/50MA，但盤前失去週五低位；AMZN高於兩均線，20MA仍低於50MA，不稱金叉完成。GOOGL兩線接近，AVGO仍低於50MA，HOOD在20MA下、50MA上。MSFT盤前越過537.22，常規時段仍須重新檢驗；沒有標的因此必漲或已見頂。
三条原始可复盘条件：固定阈值，不赋主观概率Three original reviewable conditions: fixed levels, no subjective probabilities三條原始可復盤條件：固定閾值，不賦主觀概率
基准是震荡、半导体相对落后：QQQ 748.365–752.87、SPY 775.14–779.42为参考，NVDA/SMH未同时修复。源稿“大体处于”没有预先设定区间内停留比例，因此这是定性基准，不伪造二元命中率；偏强或偏弱确认时基准失效。下表三条条件才按明确规则逐项复盘。The baseline is choppy trading with semiconductor underperformance: QQQ748.365–752.87 and SPY775.14–779.42 are references without joint NVDA/SMH repair. The source’s broadly-within wording sets no required time-in-range fraction, so this is a qualitative baseline, not a fabricated binary hit rate; strong or weak confirmation invalidates it. The three conditions below receive explicit itemized review.基準是震盪、半導體相對落後：QQQ 748.365–752.87、SPY 775.14–779.42為參考，NVDA/SMH未同時修復。源稿“大體處於”沒有預先設定區間內停留比例，因此這是定性基準，不偽造二元命中率；偏強或偏弱確認時基準失效。下表三條條件才按明確規則逐項復盤。
| 编号／判断ID / assessment編號／判斷 | 确认Confirmation確認 | 确认后失效Invalidation after confirmation確認後失效 |
|---|---|---|
| 12-AM-A | 偏强：QQQ >751.27、SPY >778.57、NVDA >229.28、SMH >603.33，联合6根Strong: QQQ >751.27, SPY >778.57, NVDA >229.28 and SMH >603.33 jointly for6 bars偏強：QQQ >751.27、SPY >778.57、NVDA >229.28、SMH >603.33，聯合6根 | NVDA <229.11连续6根，或SMH <601.38连续6根NVDA <229.11 for6 consecutive bars, or SMH <601.38 for6 consecutive barsNVDA <229.11連續6根，或SMH <601.38連續6根 |
| 12-AM-B | 大盘偏弱：QQQ <748.365且SPY <775.14，联合6根Broad weakness: QQQ <748.365 and SPY <775.14 jointly for6 bars大盤偏弱：QQQ <748.365且SPY <775.14，聯合6根 | QQQ >748.365且SPY >775.14，联合6根QQQ >748.365 and SPY >775.14 jointly for6 barsQQQ >748.365且SPY >775.14，聯合6根 |
| 12-AM-C | 行业独立偏弱：NVDA <227.95连续6根，或SMH <597.34连续6根，不要求QQQ弱Independent sector weakness: NVDA <227.95 for6 consecutive bars, or SMH <597.34 for6 consecutive bars, without requiring weak QQQ行業獨立偏弱：NVDA <227.95連續6根，或SMH <597.34連續6根，不要求QQQ弱 | NVDA >229.28且SMH >603.33，联合6根；将源稿修复逻辑明确为公开复盘口径NVDA >229.28 and SMH >603.33 jointly for6 bars; formalizes the source repair logic for public reviewNVDA >229.28且SMH >603.33，聯合6根；將源稿修復邏輯明確為公開復盤口徑 |
截止10/12 16:00 ET。从09:30起，用同一连续6根完整、有量、非插值5分钟K线收盘确认；最早10:00。严格不等式，等于不算；没有今日预定事件计数重置，不拼接缺失K线或不同标的的半段OR窗口。公开检验只用真实上线后开始的完整K线，源稿窗口与公开窗口分列。Deadline10/12 16:00 ET. Starting09:30, use6 consecutive complete, positive-volume, non-interpolated5-minute closes; earliest confirmation10:00. Strict inequalities apply, equality fails, no scheduled event reset is specified, and missing bars or partial OR windows across instruments are not stitched. Public review uses only complete bars beginning after real publication; source and public windows are reported separately.截止10/12 16:00 ET。從09:30起，用同一連續6根完整、有量、非插值5分鐘K線收盤確認；最早10:00。嚴格不等式，等於不算；沒有今日預定事件計數重置，不拼接缺失K線或不同標的的半段OR窗口。公開檢驗只用真實上線後開始的完整K線，源稿窗口與公開窗口分列。
确认且未按原规则失效为命中；确认后失效为未命中；从未确认为未触发；必要数据缺失为数据不足。相关条件不是独立样本外试验，不汇成胜率。油价106、VIX 16–17只作风险背景，须新报价验证，不作为额外概率或自动操作规则。Confirmed without original-rule invalidation means hit; confirmed then invalidated means miss; no confirmation means not triggered; missing required evidence means insufficient data. Related conditions are not independent out-of-sample trials and are not pooled into a win rate. Oil106 and VIX16–17 are risk context requiring fresh quote verification, not extra probabilities or automatic action rules.確認且未按原規則失效為命中；確認後失效為未命中；從未確認為未觸發；必要數據缺失為數據不足。相關條件不是獨立樣本外試驗，不匯成勝率。油價106、VIX 16–17只作風險背景，須新報價驗證，不作為額外概率或自動操作規則。
前次盘后12-PM-A/B/C保留原编号、原门槛、10/12截止与首次公开时间，不被12-AM系列替换。盘后分别复盘，不把同一市场路径重复计为独立样本。The preceding after-close12-PM-A/B/C retain original IDs, levels,10/12 deadline and first-publication time; the12-AM series does not replace them. Review them separately after the close without counting the same market path twice as independent samples.前次盤後12-PM-A/B/C保留原編號、原門檻、10/12截止與首次公開時間，不被12-AM系列替換。盤後分別復盤，不把同一市場路徑重複計為獨立樣本。
前次完整盘后分析Immediately preceding complete after-close analysis前次完整盤後分析
事件日程：今天没有主要宏观发布，不代表没有风险Event calendar: no major scheduled macro release does not mean no risk事件日程：今天沒有主要宏觀發佈，不代表沒有風險
| 日期／时间Date / time日期／時間 | 事件Event事件 | 状态与边界Status and limits狀態與邊界 |
|---|---|---|
| 10/12 09:30–16:00 | 美股正常开收市；最早10:00首组确认Regular equity session; earliest first confirmation10:00美股正常開收市；最早10:00首組確認 | 今日主要08:30／10:00宏观数据未列入官方日历；临时消息仍可能出现No major08:30 /10:00 macro release on today’s official calendar; unscheduled news remains possible今日主要08:30／10:00宏觀數據未列入官方日曆；臨時消息仍可能出現 |
| 10/13 07:00 / 08:30 / 10:00 | JPM财报／电话会；成屋销售JPM earnings / call; existing-home salesJPM財報／電話會；成屋銷售 | 公司IR与NYFed日期；未填未来结果Company IR and NYFed dates; no future result inserted公司IR與NYFed日期；未填未來結果 |
| 10/14 07:00 CET / 15:00 CET | ASML发布／电话会ASML release / callASML發佈／電話會 | 公司日期确认，页面CET在夏令时期间有歧义，ET时刻待核验Company date confirmed, page CET label ambiguous during daylight time; ET times unverified公司日期確認，頁面CET在夏令時期間有歧義，ET時刻待核驗 |
| 10/14 08:30 / 14:00 ET | CPI／Fed褐皮书CPI / Fed Beige BookCPI／Fed褐皮書 | 实际未知Actuals unknown實際未知 |
| 10/15 02:00 ET | TSMC电话会（台北14:00）TSMC call (Taipei14:00)TSMC電話會（台北14:00） | 公司日历；结果未知Company calendar; results unknown公司日曆；結果未知 |
| 10/27 / 10/28 | HOOD；MSFT及GOOGL财报日期HOOD; MSFT and GOOGL earnings datesHOOD；MSFT及GOOGL財報日期 | HOOD 17:00 ET电话会确认；MSFT具体时间、GOOGL原文时刻待直接核验HOOD17:00 ET call confirmed; MSFT exact time and original GOOGL time await direct verificationHOOD 17:00 ET電話會確認；MSFT具體時間、GOOGL原文時刻待直接核驗 |
| 10/28 14:00 / 14:30 ET | FOMC决议／记者会FOMC decision / press conferenceFOMC決議／記者會 | 不预填未来政策No assumed future policy不預填未來政策 |
NYFed日历NYFed calendarNYFed日曆 · JPM IRJPM IRJPM IR · ASML IRASML IRASML IR · TSMC IRTSMC IRTSMC IR
时间、来源与审计边界Timing, sources and audit boundaries時間、來源與審計邊界
源稿实际生成10/12 09:08:31 ET，文件完成09:10:06 ET，源任务09:13:53 ET完成最后范围补充。网页登记时间不等于公开时间；首次成功部署单独保存。只使用该完整源稿及前次市场冻结记录，不回溯更早判断。Source actually generated10/12 09:08:31 ET, file completed09:10:06 ET, and the source task finished its final scope supplement09:13:53 ET. Page registration is not publication; first successful deployment is separately retained. Only the complete source and preceding frozen market record are used, without tracing earlier judgments.源稿實際生成10/12 09:08:31 ET，文件完成09:10:06 ET，源任務09:13:53 ET完成最後範圍補充。網頁登記時間不等於公開時間；首次成功部署單獨保存。只使用該完整源稿及前次市場凍結記錄，不回溯更早判斷。
本页仅含市场研究。原始报告和证据未复制到公开目录，任何账户数据或专属操作计划均未进入正文、译文、元数据或脚本。事实、媒体报道与作者推论分别标注；更正保留时间与原因，不改写已登记预测。This page contains market research only. Original reports and evidence are not copied to the public directory, and no personal financial data or account-specific plans enter text, translations, metadata or scripts. Facts, media reports and author inference are distinguished; corrections retain time and reason without rewriting registered forecasts.本頁僅含市場研究。原始報告和證據未複製到公開目錄，任何賬户數據或專屬操作計劃均未進入正文、譯文、元數據或腳本。事實、媒體報道與作者推論分別標註；更正保留時間與原因，不改寫已登記預測。
Registered: 2026-10-12T13:30:02.322Z
Source SHA256: 9a7437206e6b98fb075ab8fd2cb26dfa430a045804ff7e3220e3b6f9d29b8786
First public deployment: 2026-10-12T13:38:38.873590+00:00
Public observation starts: 2026-10-12T13:40:00.000Z