REASONED ALPHA

Evidence · Probability · Discipline

RESEARCH GUIDE

What we research

Reasoned Alpha is Lancer’s personal U.S. equity research website and video channel. It covers AI, semiconductors, cloud platforms, macro conditions and portfolio decisions, preserving model versions, assumptions and subsequent reviews.

AI infrastructure and semiconductors

NVDA · AVGO · AMD · MU · INTC · LITE · COHR · BE

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Cloud platforms and large-cap technology

GOOGL · MSFT · AMZN · META · AAPL · TSLA

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Versioned valuation models

NVDA · GOOGL · MSFT · AMZN · AVGO · HOOD

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Macro, pre-market calls and post-market reviews

Inflation · Rates · Employment · Earnings

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How to interpret our work

  1. SEC filings contain disclosed historical facts; projected revenue, EPS and valuation multiples are model inputs or assumptions.
  2. Analyst consensus and original models are separate. Price targets, historical target-touch rates and scenario probabilities are different metrics.
  3. Read each model’s input date and research status. Retrospective backfills are not contemporaneously published forecasts. Uncalibrated models do not claim predictive accuracy.
  4. Reviews retain the original call, threshold and observation window, distinguishing met, missed, not triggered and insufficient data.

Where to start

NVDA V1 / V2 · Model directory · Daily analysis · Author and principles

Citation and corrections

When citing, retain the page URL, analysis date, model version and metric definitions. Old reports do not represent current views. Use the contact form for corrections or collaboration inquiries.

Contact us → · YouTube @ReasonedAlpha

For general information and personal research, not individualized investment advice; targets are not guaranteed.