常规时段结束Dashboard · 暂定参考End-of-session dashboard · provisional references常規時段結束Dashboard · 暫定參考
以下为ETF及股票价格，不是现金指数点位。涨跌以10/5正式收盘为基准；高低来自当日78根完整、非插值5分钟K线，未声称包含最终竞价修订。价格单位为美元。These are ETF and stock prices, not cash-index levels. Changes use the Oct 5 official close. Ranges come from 78 complete, non-interpolated five-minute bars and do not claim to include final auction revisions. Prices are in U.S. dollars.以下為ETF及股票價格，不是現金指數點位。漲跌以10/5正式收盤為基準；高低來自當日78根完整、非插值5分鐘K線，未聲稱包含最終競價修訂。價格單位為美元。
| 标的Symbol標的 | 常规末笔 / 日涨跌Final regular trade / daily change常規末筆 / 日漲跌 | 常规低–高Regular-session low–high常規低–高 |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 239.17 / +0.11% | 238.93–243.37 |
| MSFT | 529.49 / +0.82% | 528.82–535.69 |
| AMZN | 256.33 / +1.96% | 251.08–256.675 |
| GOOGL | 347.7 / +0.36% | 344.6805–349.09 |
| AVGO | 375.92 / +3.70% | 364.01–380.84 |
| SPY | 779.14 / +0.56% | 777.96–781.62 |
| QQQ | 759.61 / +0.45% | 759.1–762.86 |
| SMH | 632.445 / -0.23% | 631.49–639.47 |
| RSP | 212.34 / +0.58% | 211.77–212.925 |
| IWM | 281.3 / -0.73% | 280.76–284.64 |
SPY +0.56%、QQQ +0.45%、RSP +0.58%；SMH -0.23%、IWM -0.73%。等权上涨而小盘下跌，行业参与并不一致。RSP与IWM只是广度代理，源稿没有核验全市场上涨/下跌家数或成交量广度。VIX源快照15.01，截至16:07:31 ET，不是官方收盘值。SPY +0.56%, QQQ +0.45%, RSP +0.58%; SMH -0.23%, IWM -0.73%. Equal-weight gains alongside small-cap losses show uneven participation. RSP and IWM are only breadth proxies; full-market advance/decline counts and volume breadth were not verified. The source VIX snapshot was 15.01 at 16:07:31 ET, not an official close.SPY +0.56%、QQQ +0.45%、RSP +0.58%；SMH -0.23%、IWM -0.73%。等權上漲而小盤下跌，行業參與並不一致。RSP與IWM只是廣度代理，源稿沒有核驗全市場上漲/下跌家數或成交量廣度。VIX源快照15.01，截至16:07:31 ET，不是官方收盤值。
迟发早盘原判断复盘：内部与公开分开Reviewing the delayed early-session calls: internal and public windows遲發早盤原判斷復盤：內部與公開分開
当天没有开盘前完成的稿件，只有10:40:35 ET生成的迟发早盘稿。原网页登记12:11:20 ET，首次公开上线12:16:34.794294 ET；公开检验从12:20 ET起的完整K线开始，6根首次可在12:50 ET完成。不得把11:15内部确认当作公开预测命中。No report was completed before the open; the source was generated at 10:40:35 ET. Web registration was 12:11:20 ET and first public deployment 12:16:34.794294 ET. Public testing begins with complete bars starting at 12:20 ET; the first 6-bar confirmation can occur at 12:50 ET. The internal 11:15 confirmation is not a public forecast hit.當天沒有開盤前完成的稿件，只有10:40:35 ET生成的遲發早盤稿。原網頁登記12:11:20 ET，首次公開上線12:16:34.794294 ET；公開檢驗從12:20 ET起的完整K線開始，6根首次可在12:50 ET完成。不得把11:15內部確認當作公開預測命中。
原编号、原门槛、原截止16:00 ET与原始价格口径不变。30分钟确认采用连续6根完整5分钟收盘，不是盘中触碰；各标的必须同一组K线同时满足。登记前与公开前走势不计入公开检验。Original IDs, thresholds, deadline 16:00 ET and price definitions are unchanged. A 30-minute confirmation requires 6 consecutive complete five-minute closes, not a price touch; all relevant symbols must qualify on the same bars. Moves before registration or publication do not count toward public testing.原編號、原門檻、原截止16:00 ET與原始價格口徑不變。30分鐘確認採用連續6根完整5分鐘收盤，不是盤中觸碰；各標的必須同一組K線同時滿足。登記前與公開前走勢不計入公開檢驗。
| 原编号Original ID原編號 | 原条件Original condition原條件 | 源稿后窗口（10:45起）After-source window (from 10:45)源稿後窗口（10:45起） | 公开后窗口（12:20起）After-publication window (from 12:20)公開後窗口（12:20起） | 结果Result結果 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-AM-A | 基准偏强震荡；SPY 777.96、QQQ 759.10；双双连续6根下破则失效Constructive-range baseline; SPY 777.96, QQQ 759.10; invalid if both close below for 6 consecutive bars基準偏強震盪；SPY 777.96、QQQ 759.10；雙雙連續6根下破則失效 | 10:45–16:00共同守住；11:15首次完成确认Both held from 10:45–16:00; first confirmation at 11:1510:45–16:00共同守住；11:15首次完成確認 | 12:20–16:00共同守住；12:50首次完成确认Both held from 12:20–16:00; first confirmation at 12:5012:20–16:00共同守住；12:50首次完成確認 | 命中（基准支持）Hit (baseline supported)命中（基準支持） |
| 06-AM-B | 连续6根同时高于SPY 780.67、QQQ 762.09、SMH 639.47；其后任一连续6根跌回门槛下则失效6 consecutive bars simultaneously above SPY 780.67, QQQ 762.09, SMH 639.47; subsequently invalid if any closes below its threshold for 6 consecutive bars連續6根同時高於SPY 780.67、QQQ 762.09、SMH 639.47；其後任一連續6根跌回門檻下則失效 | 组合突破未出现；个别指数上破不能代替行业确认No joint breakout; individual index breaks did not replace industry confirmation組合突破未出現；個別指數上破不能代替行業確認 | 公开后组合条件未出现No joint trigger after publication公開後組合條件未出現 | 未触发Not triggered未觸發 |
| 06-AM-C | SPY<777.96且QQQ<759.10连续6根；SMH<634.78为增强条件，不单独代表大盘转弱SPY<777.96 and QQQ<759.10 for 6 consecutive bars; SMH<634.78 strengthens the signal but is not an independent broad-market triggerSPY<777.96且QQQ<759.10連續6根；SMH<634.78為增強條件，不單獨代表大盤轉弱 | 双指数未触发；SMH于15:50确认行业转弱No dual-index trigger; SMH confirmed industry weakness at 15:50雙指數未觸發；SMH於15:50確認行業轉弱 | 双指数未触发；SMH行业弱势单列No dual-index trigger; SMH weakness recorded separately雙指數未觸發；SMH行業弱勢單列 | 未触发（大盘）Not triggered (broad market)未觸發（大盤） |
| 06-AM-D | NVDA>243.37连续6根确认上涨延伸；其后<240.10连续6根则失效；238.90为下一观察位NVDA>243.37 for 6 consecutive bars confirms upside extension; a subsequent 6-bar break below 240.10 invalidates it; 238.90 is the next referenceNVDA>243.37連續6根確認上漲延伸；其後<240.10連續6根則失效；238.90為下一觀察位 | 上涨未触发；13:45、15:35确认低于240.10；中途恢复，不是全天持续失守Upside did not trigger; breaks below 240.10 confirmed at 13:45 and 15:35; an intervening recovery prevents a continuous-break claim上漲未觸發；13:45、15:35確認低於240.10；中途恢復，不是全天持續失守 | 上涨未触发；同样记录13:45、15:35下破；238.90未确认下破Upside did not trigger; breaks at 13:45 and 15:35 also appear after publication; no confirmed break below 238.90上漲未觸發；同樣記錄13:45、15:35下破；238.90未確認下破 | 未触发（上涨）；支撑失守另记Not triggered (upside); support failure recorded separately未觸發（上漲）；支撐失守另記 |
判断对的地方是支撑与分化，不能扩大成全面突破正确。上涨延伸未触发，不记为盈利或一次独立胜率样本；同一市场的相关条件也不能相加成独立胜率。中途恢复与尾盘再次转弱完整保留。早盘漏列明天FOMC会议纪要，本篇补充，早盘原文不改。Support and divergence were the supported calls; this does not validate a broad breakout. Untriggered upside conditions are neither profit nor independent accuracy samples. Correlated calls on the same market cannot be summed into an independent win rate. The intervening recovery and renewed late weakness are both retained. Tomorrow’s FOMC minutes were omitted from the early calendar; this article adds them without rewriting the original.判斷對的地方是支撐與分化，不能擴大成全面突破正確。上漲延伸未觸發，不記為盈利或一次獨立勝率樣本；同一市場的相關條件也不能相加成獨立勝率。中途恢復與尾盤再次轉弱完整保留。早盤漏列明天FOMC會議紀要，本篇補充，早盤原文不改。
查看冻结早盘原文与原始条件Read the frozen early-session article and original conditions查看凍結早盤原文與原始條件
依照仅参考前一次分析的现行规则，本轮只复盘今天最近一份迟发早盘稿，不回溯更早报告。该稿未承接可独立核验的前一交易日到期预测，因此其状态为数据不足，不补造预测。Under the current immediately-preceding-analysis rule, this run reviews only today’s latest delayed early-session report, without retrieving older reports. It did not carry independently verifiable prior-session expiring forecasts, so their status is insufficient data; no forecasts are reconstructed.依照僅參考前一次分析的現行規則，本輪只復盤今天最近一份遲發早盤稿，不回溯更早報告。該稿未承接可獨立核驗的前一交易日到期預測，因此其狀態為數據不足，不補造預測。
重点个股：强弱与技术位Company performance and technical levels重點個股：強弱與技術位
| 标的 / 表现Symbol / performance標的 / 表現 | 实际走势与复盘Observed path and review實際走勢與復盤 | 下一交易日观察Next-session references下一交易日觀察 |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA · +0.11% | 早盘稿后最高242.61；243.37上涨条件未触发。240.10下午两次确认失守，常规末笔239.17；当日低238.93没有跌穿238.90。Post-source high 242.61; the 243.37 upside condition did not trigger. The 240.10 level failed twice in the afternoon; final regular trade 239.17. The session low 238.93 did not break 238.90.早盤稿後最高242.61；243.37上漲條件未觸發。240.10下午兩次確認失守，常規末筆239.17；當日低238.93沒有跌穿238.90。 | 240.10恢复 / 243.37压力；238.90下确认则短线转弱240.10 recovery / 243.37 resistance; a confirmed break below 238.90 signals short-term weakness240.10恢復 / 243.37壓力；238.90下確認則短線轉弱 |
| AMZN · +1.96% | 反弹强于大盘，持续高于254.53；日高256.675仍低于10/5均线256.93，50日突破未触发，251.08未失守。The rebound outperformed broad indexes and remained above 254.53. The high 256.675 stayed below the Oct 5 SMA at 256.93; no 50-day breakout or loss of 251.08.反彈強於大盤，持續高於254.53；日高256.675仍低於10/5均線256.93，50日突破未觸發，251.08未失守。 | 254.53 / 256.675–256.93；251.08支撑254.53 / 256.675–256.93; support 251.08254.53 / 256.675–256.93；251.08支撐 |
| GOOGL · +0.36% | 源稿后低346.50、高349.09；344.68–344.90支撑守住，但没有连续6根高于348.89。触碰不是站稳。Post-source low 346.50, high 349.09. Support 344.68–344.90 held, but there were not 6 consecutive closes above 348.89. A touch is not confirmation.源稿後低346.50、高349.09；344.68–344.90支撐守住，但沒有連續6根高於348.89。觸碰不是站穩。 | 344.68–344.90支撑；349.09压力Support 344.68–344.90; resistance 349.09344.68–344.90支撐；349.09壓力 |
| MSFT · +0.82% | 源稿后低529.08，528.82支撑未触发失守；常规末笔529.49，仍低于早盘恢复参考532.35。The post-source low was 529.08; the 528.82 support-failure condition did not trigger. Final regular trade 529.49 remained below the early recovery reference 532.35.源稿後低529.08，528.82支撐未觸發失守；常規末筆529.49，仍低於早盤恢復參考532.35。 | 528.82支撑；532.35恢复 / 535.69压力Support 528.82; recovery 532.35 / resistance 535.69528.82支撐；532.35恢復 / 535.69壓力 |
| AVGO · +3.70% | 源稿后低375.46，守住10/5均线372.83；日高380.84，但常规末笔375.92低于早盘377.61。强势也有回吐。The post-source low 375.46 held above the Oct 5 SMA at 372.83. The session high was 380.84, but final regular trade 375.92 was below early-session 377.61. Strength still included a pullback.源稿後低375.46，守住10/5均線372.83；日高380.84，但常規末筆375.92低於早盤377.61。強勢也有回吐。 | 372.83均线；377.61恢复 / 380.84压力SMA 372.83; recovery 377.61 / resistance 380.84372.83均線；377.61恢復 / 380.84壓力 |
均线截止10/5完整日线，今日正式日线未就绪，不把这些水平称为更新后的今日均线。一般性技术条件不等于保证反弹，更不能从涨幅反推某条消息就是原因。Moving averages end at the complete Oct 5 daily bars; today’s official daily bar was not ready. These are not newly calculated today’s averages. Technical conditions do not guarantee a rebound, and price gains do not prove a particular news cause.均線截止10/5完整日線，今日正式日線未就緒，不把這些水平稱為更新後的今日均線。一般性技術條件不等於保證反彈，更不能從漲幅反推某條消息就是原因。
宏观：债息缓解，能源风险未解除Macro: easier yields, persistent energy risk宏觀：債息緩解，能源風險未解除
| 事项 / 时间Release / time事項 / 時間 | 实际 / 参考值Actual / reference實際 / 參考值 | 预期与前值口径Forecast and prior-value basis預期與前值口徑 |
|---|---|---|
| 贸易差额 · 10/6 08:30 ETTrade balance · 10/6 08:30 ET貿易差額 · 10/6 08:30 ET | -$105.6B; imports $420.8B; exports $315.2B | 7月修订-$92.8B；修订前-$88.6B、调查预期-$100.8B仅承接早盘记录，本轮未新核验调查样本July revised -$92.8B; pre-revision -$88.6B and survey forecast -$100.8B carried from the early report; survey sample not reverified7月修訂-$92.8B；修訂前-$88.6B、調查預期-$100.8B僅承接早盤記錄，本輪未新核驗調查樣本 |
| Fed · 9/16声明Fed · 9/16 statementFed · 9/16聲明 | 3.75–4.00%; +25bp | 政策事实；今天债息下降不是减息决定Policy fact; lower yields today are not a rate-cut decision政策事實；今天債息下降不是減息決定 |
| 2年 / 10年美债网页快照2-year / 10-year yield snapshots2年 / 10年美債網頁快照 | 4.793% / 5.274% | 前值4.833% / 5.313%；网页15:38:34 / 15:56:14，时区未明；不是财政部日值Prior 4.833% / 5.313%; page times 15:38:34 / 15:56:14, timezone unspecified; not Treasury daily values前值4.833% / 5.313%；網頁15:38:34 / 15:56:14，時區未明；不是財政部日值 |
| DXY | 101.87; -0.29% | 源稿网页15:49:39，时区未明；非统一收盘Source page time 15:49:39, timezone unspecified; not a synchronized close源稿網頁15:49:39，時區未明；非統一收盤 |
| WTI Nov / Brent Dec | $89.72 (+0.31%) / $100.97 (+0.39%) | 源稿快照15:34:41 / 15:40:34，时区未明；不是结算价Source snapshots 15:34:41 / 15:40:34, timezone unspecified; not settlement prices源稿快照15:34:41 / 15:40:34，時區未明；不是結算價 |
| EIA · 10/6发布EIA · released 10/6EIA · 10/6發佈 | 2026 Q4 Brent $105/b; 2027 $84/b | Q4预测较上月增加$14/b；模型输入截至10/1。预测不是实际未来价格Q4 forecast raised $14/b from last month; model inputs through 10/1. Forecasts are not actual future pricesQ4預測較上月增加$14/b；模型輸入截至10/1。預測不是實際未來價格 |
| GSCPI | 最新值待核验Latest reading unverified最新值待核驗 | 实际、预期及修订值均未取得；不填旧值Actual, forecast and revisions unavailable; no older value substituted實際、預期及修訂值均未取得；不填舊值 |
BEA原始发布BEA releaseBEA原始發佈 · Fed声明Fed statementFed聲明 · EIA十月展望EIA October outlookEIA十月展望 · 2年美债快照2-year snapshot2年美債快照 · 10年美债快照10-year snapshot10年美債快照 · DXY快照DXY snapshotDXY快照 · WTI来源WTI sourceWTI來源 · Brent来源Brent sourceBrent來源
作者推论：债息和美元下行与指数上涨相容，但不构成单一因果证明。油价在早盘回落后回升，不能继续用全天能源压力下降解释市场。能源通胀与行业分化使全面追涨的逻辑仍需确认。Author interpretation: lower yields and a softer dollar are consistent with index gains, not proof of a single cause. Oil rebounded after its early decline; falling energy pressure cannot explain the whole session. Energy inflation and industry divergence still require confirmation before a broad risk-on interpretation.作者推論：債息和美元下行與指數上漲相容，但不構成單一因果證明。油價在早盤迴落後回升，不能繼續用全天能源壓力下降解釋市場。能源通脹與行業分化使全面追漲的邏輯仍需確認。
公开新闻：事实、报道与背景分开Public news: facts, reporting and background公開新聞：事實、報道與背景分開
媒体报道：Daly关注AI、关税及能源通胀；不等于FOMC决议。Media report: Daly flagged AI, tariff and energy inflation risks; not an FOMC decision.媒體報道：Daly關注AI、關税及能源通脹；不等於FOMC決議。
当日媒体报道 · 10/6Same-day media report · 10/6當日媒體報道 · 10/6
公司事实与时间：Anthropic的Google/Broadcom算力合作公告日期为4/6，涉及2027年开始的多GW TPU容量，是背景而非今天新订单。近期融资报道也不等于交付完成或当期盈利确认。Company fact and timing: Anthropic’s Google/Broadcom compute announcement was dated 4/6 and concerns multi-GW TPU capacity beginning in 2027. It is background, not a new order today. Recent financing reports are not completed delivery or recognized current-period profit.公司事實與時間：Anthropic的Google/Broadcom算力合作公告日期為4/6，涉及2027年開始的多GW TPU容量，是背景而非今天新訂單。近期融資報道也不等於交付完成或當期盈利確認。
公司原始公告Company announcement公司原始公告 · 10/1融资报道 · 背景10/1 financing report · background10/1融資報道 · 背景
源稿将中东供应风险与出口缓解消息列为媒体背景，没有确认今天新芯片出口许可或对应订单。本轮未取得足以单独解释NVDA、MSFT、AMZN走势的新增重大公司IR公告；AVGO强势、AMZN反弹是价格事实，不把未证实叙事写成收入或利润。The source treats Middle East supply risks and improving-export headlines as media background, without confirming a new chip-export license or related order today. No newly verified major IR announcement independently explains NVDA, MSFT or AMZN’s path. AVGO strength and AMZN’s rebound are price facts; unconfirmed narratives are not revenue or profit.源稿將中東供應風險與出口緩解消息列為媒體背景，沒有確認今天新芯片出口許可或對應訂單。本輪未取得足以單獨解釋NVDA、MSFT、AMZN走勢的新增重大公司IR公告；AVGO強勢、AMZN反彈是價格事實，不把未證實敍事寫成收入或利潤。
10月7日：固定条件与事件日历October 7: fixed conditions and event calendar10月7日：固定條件與事件日曆
下一交易日基准为分化震荡；这是作者的条件判断，不赋予没有统计依据的概率。只计算10/7 09:30–16:00 ET完整常规5分钟K线，6根代表30分钟，日内重新计数；截止10/7 16:00 ET。公开价格源沿用当次只读行情的非插值常规K线。The next-session baseline is a divergent range: an author-defined conditional view, without unsupported probabilities. Use only complete regular five-minute bars from 10/7 09:30–16:00 ET; 6 bars equal 30 minutes, counted afresh that day. Deadline 10/7 16:00 ET. Price evidence uses non-interpolated regular bars from the same read-only market feed.下一交易日基準為分化震盪；這是作者的條件判斷，不賦予沒有統計依據的概率。只計算10/7 09:30–16:00 ET完整常規5分鐘K線，6根代表30分鐘，日內重新計數；截止10/7 16:00 ET。公開價格源沿用當次只讀行情的非插值常規K線。
| 编号ID編號 | 条件 / 固定阈值Condition / fixed thresholds條件 / 固定閾值 | 命中、失效与未触发规则Hit, invalidation and non-trigger rules命中、失效與未觸發規則 |
|---|---|---|
| 07-PM-A | SPY 777.96、QQQ 759.10共同守住，维持分化震荡基准Hold SPY 777.96 and QQQ 759.10 together; retain the divergent-range baselineSPY 777.96、QQQ 759.10共同守住，維持分化震盪基準 | 命中需出现共同高于门槛的6根确认、收盘两者仍在其上，且全天没有共同6根下破；出现共同6根下破记未命中；既无支持确认也无失效则未触发Hit requires 6-bar joint support confirmation, both above support at the close and no joint 6-bar failure all day; a joint 6-bar failure is a miss; no support confirmation or invalidation means not triggered命中需出現共同高於門檻的6根確認、收盤兩者仍在其上，且全天沒有共同6根下破；出現共同6根下破記未命中；既無支持確認也無失效則未觸發 |
| 07-PM-B | SPY>781.62、QQQ>762.86、SMH>639.47连续6根共同确认，才升级为趋势延伸Upgrade to trend extension only after 6 joint bars with SPY>781.62, QQQ>762.86 and SMH>639.47SPY>781.62、QQQ>762.86、SMH>639.47連續6根共同確認，才升級為趨勢延伸 | 触发后至截止，任一标的连续6根跌回自己门槛下则未命中；未失效记命中；无完整组合确认记未触发After triggering, any symbol closing below its own threshold for 6 bars before deadline is a miss; no invalidation is a hit; no full joint confirmation means not triggered觸發後至截止，任一標的連續6根跌回自己門檻下則未命中；未失效記命中；無完整組合確認記未觸發 |
| 07-PM-C | SPY<777.96、QQQ<759.10连续6根共同确认；SMH<631.49只是行业增强参考SPY<777.96 and QQQ<759.10 for 6 joint bars; SMH<631.49 is an additional industry reference onlySPY<777.96、QQQ<759.10連續6根共同確認；SMH<631.49只是行業增強參考 | 触发后两指数连续6根共同收复原门槛则未命中；没有共同收复记命中；无共同下破记未触发，不用SMH单独转弱替代After triggering, 6 joint bars recovering both original thresholds are a miss; no joint recovery is a hit; no joint downside trigger means not triggered, regardless of SMH alone觸發後兩指數連續6根共同收復原門檻則未命中；沒有共同收復記命中；無共同下破記未觸發，不用SMH單獨轉弱替代 |
| 07-PM-D | NVDA>240.10连续6根确认短线修复，243.37为压力参考NVDA>240.10 for 6 bars confirms a short-term repair; 243.37 is a resistance referenceNVDA>240.10連續6根確認短線修復，243.37為壓力參考 | 修复触发后NVDA<238.90连续6根则未命中；未失效且收盘>240.10记命中，否则未命中；没有修复确认记未触发，并单列238.90下破After repair triggers, NVDA<238.90 for 6 bars is a miss; no invalidation and a close>240.10 is a hit, otherwise a miss; no repair confirmation means not triggered, with any 238.90 downside recorded separately修復觸發後NVDA<238.90連續6根則未命中；未失效且收盤>240.10記命中，否則未命中；沒有修復確認記未觸發，並單列238.90下破 |
阈值来源：SPY 781.62、QQQ 762.86为今天常规高点；777.96、759.10为今天低点；SMH 631.49/639.47为今日低/高；NVDA 240.10/243.37沿用最新早盘原门槛，238.90是10/5正式收盘。确认时间取第6根K线结束。缺少或中断K线且影响结论，列数据不足，不把缺失样本记未触发；这些相互关联的条件不作为独立胜率样本。Threshold sources: SPY 781.62 and QQQ 762.86 are today’s regular highs; 777.96 and 759.10 are today’s lows. SMH 631.49/639.47 are today’s low/high. NVDA 240.10/243.37 retain the latest early-session thresholds; 238.90 is the Oct 5 official close. Confirmation time is the end of the 6th bar. Missing or interrupted bars that affect a conclusion mean insufficient data, not an untriggered sample; correlated conditions are not independent accuracy samples.閾值來源：SPY 781.62、QQQ 762.86為今天常規高點；777.96、759.10為今天低點；SMH 631.49/639.47為今日低/高；NVDA 240.10/243.37沿用最新早盤原門檻，238.90是10/5正式收盤。確認時間取第6根K線結束。缺少或中斷K線且影響結論，列數據不足，不把缺失樣本記未觸發；這些相互關聯的條件不作為獨立勝率樣本。
| 10/7时间 · ET10/7 time · ET10/7時間 · ET | 事件Event事件 | 结果状态 / 关注点Result status / focus結果狀態 / 關注點 |
|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | 纽约联储消费者预期调查New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations紐約聯儲消費者預期調查 | 尚未发布；通胀预期、就业及家庭财务预期Not released; inflation, employment and household-finance expectations尚未發佈；通脹預期、就業及家庭財務預期 |
| 14:00 | 9/15–9/16 FOMC会议纪要Minutes of the 9/15–9/16 FOMC meeting9/15–9/16 FOMC會議紀要 | 不是新利率决议；观察政策分歧与通胀传导Not a new rate decision; watch policy disagreement and inflation transmission不是新利率決議；觀察政策分歧與通脹傳導 |
| 15:00 | Fed G.19消费者信贷Fed G.19 consumer creditFed G.19消費者信貸 | 尚未发布；实际、预期和修订前值待核验Not released; actual, forecast and pre-revision values awaiting verification尚未發佈；實際、預期和修訂前值待核驗 |
纽约联储官方日历New York Fed calendar紐約聯儲官方日曆 · Fed官方日历Fed calendarFed官方日曆
来源、时间与可审计记录Sources, timestamps and auditable record來源、時間與可審計記錄
网页登记：2026-10-06T20:23:10Z。源报告生成、源任务完成、网页登记与首次公开部署是不同时间；真实公开上线时间保存在发布回执，不用登记时间冒充。当前数据缺项包括今日正式收盘、财政部日值、GSCPI及全市场广度；均明确标注。Web registration: 2026-10-06T20:23:10Z. Source generation, task completion, web registration and first public deployment are distinct times. The real public deployment time is retained in the publication receipt, not replaced by registration. Missing data includes today’s official close, Treasury daily yields, GSCPI and full-market breadth; these gaps are disclosed.網頁登記：2026-10-06T20:23:10Z。源報告生成、源任務完成、網頁登記與首次公開部署是不同時間；真實公開上線時間保存在發佈回執，不用登記時間冒充。當前數據缺項包括今日正式收盤、財政部日值、GSCPI及全市場廣度；均明確標註。
此文对完整源报告作市场部分的选择性发布，没有复制原始证据文件。事实、媒体报道和作者推论分开；后续更正须保留时间、原因和原预测。今天的早盘原文不覆盖，下一次复盘只读取本次分析及它携带的必要持续状态。This article selectively publishes the market portion of the complete source report without copying its raw evidence file. Facts, media reports and author interpretations are distinct. Any correction must retain its time, reason and original forecast. Today’s early article is not overwritten; the next review reads this analysis and its necessary continuing state only.此文對完整源報告作市場部分的選擇性發布，沒有複製原始證據文件。事實、媒體報道和作者推論分開；後續更正須保留時間、原因和原預測。今天的早盤原文不覆蓋，下一次復盤只讀取本次分析及它攜帶的必要持續狀態。
市场持续状态：10/6正式收盘未确认；基准得到支持，全面突破未触发；下一次检验07-PM-A至07-PM-D，截止10/7 16:00 ET。保留既定门槛，不回溯更早报告，也不将迟发内部判断作为独立公开样本。Continuing market state: the Oct 6 official close is unconfirmed; the baseline was supported and broad-breakout conditions did not trigger. Next review: 07-PM-A through 07-PM-D, deadline 10/7 16:00 ET. Keep fixed thresholds, do not retrieve older reports, and do not treat delayed internal calls as independent public samples.市場持續狀態：10/6正式收盤未確認；基準得到支持，全面突破未觸發；下一次檢驗07-PM-A至07-PM-D，截止10/7 16:00 ET。保留既定門檻，不回溯更早報告，也不將遲發內部判斷作為獨立公開樣本。